How Verstappen could be eliminated from the F1 title race in Las Vegas GP

Having reignited his Formula 1 world championship campaign after the summer break, Max Verstappen's momentum has sputtered and he could be definitively out after the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

After the Dutch GP, the Dutchman trailed the then-leader, Oscar Piastri, by 104 points. Over the five races that followed, Verstappen managed to close the gap to first place – which Lando Norris claimed from Mexico City onwards – to 36 points, achieving an impressive haul while the McLaren drivers contrived to make life difficult for themselves.

how verstappen took 68 points out of the championship leader between Monza and Mexico
						Total
Verstappen	25	25	18	33	15	116
Norris	18	6	15	18	25	82
Piastri	15	0	12	10	10	47

While Norris's victory in Mexico represented the first setback for Verstappen's competitive renaissance, the Sao Paulo weekend delivered a more serious blow as Norris won the sprint and the grand prix. So while Verstappen took away more points than Piastri, closing the gap to him to just 25 points, Verstappen's deficit to the championship lead widened from 36 points to 49.

After the Las Vegas round, the 22nd of the 24 Grands Prix on the calendar, 58 points will remain up for grabs: the Qatar Grand Prix offers the chance to gain up to 33 points since it is a sprint round, while a victory in Abu Dhabi will award 25 points. The mathematics are definite: if Verstappen leaves Las Vegas 58 points or more behind Norris, the title can no longer be his.

Even if the gap between the two drivers widens in Vegas without Verstappen being mathematically eliminated, he would certainly lose the possibility of a final tie in points.

This is significant because, if two drivers finish the season with exactly the same number of points, the regulations stipulate that they are separated based on the number of grand prix wins. If this figure is equal then the decision is taken from the number of second places, and so on.

Currently, Verstappen has five wins to Norris's seven, five second-place finishes compared with eight. If the gap between them widens further in Las Vegas, it will mean:

• In the case of a Norris victory, he will have more wins (eight) even if Verstappen were to win the last two GPs;
• If Norris doesn't win (in which case Verstappen would not finish second) and Verstappen were to win the final two grands prix, and they were to finish with the same number of points and wins, Norris would take the title by dint of having more second-place finishes.

The elimination scenarios

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

If Verstappen ships nine points to Norris in Las Vegas then he will be out of the running. These are the possible scenarios – which have already occurred in a third of the races so far this season: 

• Norris wins (25 points) with Verstappen no higher than third (15 points or fewer) 
  This scenario occurred six times in 2025 (Monaco, Austria, Great Britain, Hungary, Mexico and Sao Paulo): Norris the winner (25 points), Verstappen no higher than third (15 points or fewer).
• Norris second (18 points) with Verstappen no higher than sixth (8 points or fewer)
  This scenario occurred once in 2025 (at the Spanish GP, where Verstappen initially finished fifth on the road before being penalised and reclassified as 10th).
• Norris third (15 points) with Verstappen no higher than seventh (6 points or fewer)
  This has yet to happen in 2025.
• Norris fourth (12 points) with Verstappen no higher than ninth (2 points or fewer)
  This has yet to happen in 2025.
• Norris fifth (10 points) with Verstappen no higher than 10th (1 point or nothing)
  This has yet to happen in 2025.

In all other scenarios, Verstappen will remain in the title fight until Qatar.

Can Norris win the championship in Las Vegas? 

Photo by: Mario Renzi - Formula 1 - Getty Images

No. Even if Norris wins and neither Piastri nor Verstappen scores any points, he wouldn't have a sufficient lead to mathematically clinch the title.

Norris's maximum advantage over his closest rival after Las Vegas can only be 49 points (415 versus 366 in the event of a Norris victory and Piastri not scoring). As we've already established, 58 points will still be up for grabs.

At the time of writing, the title cannot be decided until the Qatar Grand Prix (November 28-30).

However, there is a scenario in which Norris could lose the championship lead in Las Vegas: if Piastri wins and Norris scores no more than one point. In that case, Piastri would either be ahead by one point or tied but ahead on wins (eight to seven).

In summary

Here's what you need to know before Las Vegas: 

• Verstappen will be eliminated from the title race if he loses nine points or more to Norris
• If Verstappen finishes ahead of Norris, he will remain in the title race
• If Norris doesn't finish in the top five, Verstappen will remain in the title race regardless
• Norris cannot win the championship in Las Vegas