How the F1 2023 competitive order is shaping up after Bahrain testing

He seized the moment. Valtteri Bottas thrust his Alfa Romeo C43 down the inside of Sergio Perez’s Red Bull at Bahrain’s downhill, Turn 8 hairpin – the pair having gone three-wide with the Lando Norris-piloted McLaren MCL60 at the first corner just moments before.

Bottas’s bravery paid off. He was ahead, with the chequered flag almost in sight, and yet free to charge off after the leader: AlphaTauri racer Yuki Tsunoda.

How Formula 1 would wish the varied teams contesting this small spot of ‘racing’ that concluded the final day of 2023 pre-season testing made up the pecking order for the real campaign about to get underway at the same Sakhir venue a week from today. It would certainly hark back to the lofty aims of the returning ground-effects rules reset.

But this was just a flash of orchestrated group running – the cars actually testing F1’s safety car restart procedures with the championship’s timing and tracking systems, a regular session-ending feature of the final two of three days running this week. And the likely true order of car performance is seemingly startlingly close to how things ended in 2022, albeit with a couple of significant potential revisions in the midfield.

There’s no getting away from it. After topping two of the three days – with only Zhou Guanyu’s late day two C5 soft tyre effort stopping a clean sweep – and with the fastest overall time, plus solid reliability and long-run pace, Red Bull is comfortably the favourite heading into the new season. And, of course, this is after it ultimately dominated in 2022.

Perez’s 1m30.305s led the way in the performance runs that closed out the final day – in conditions closest to the qualifying session for next week’s Bahrain Grand Prix, albeit using C4 softs that won’t be back then. That time was 1.4s quicker than Max Verstappen’s test-topping lap from 2022 and 1.2s up against Charles Leclerc’s race pole time for Ferrari here last year.

Perez produced a series of one-lap efforts in the final two hours of the last day, after Red Bull had largely eschewed the softer rubber for most of the test. Indeed, Verstappen’s day one-leading and day two second-placed times had been set on the C3 mediums on which Red Bull typically conducts its pre-season running.

Perez punched in some quick times late on the third day to secure Red Bull's place at the top of the timesheets

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

After Lewis Hamilton had finally deposed long-time day three pacesetter Leclerc with a C5 soft lap with just under 90-minutes of the final session remaining, Perez moved ahead 10 minutes later. His initial efforts on the C4s had required wrestling the RB19 through the swooping uphill left and right of Turns 11-12 at the end of Bahrain’s second sector, but now the car was shimmying through – lightly (perhaps with some fuel taken out, that typical testing caveat is always worth recalling), deftly. Very alive.

That describes the RB19 at its best and best seen in Verstappen’s hands. The Dutchman said everything Red Bull had refined from the RB18 were design decisions “put on the car that were clearly better”. He felt this test was “very positive days for me”, where he was “just in general enjoying driving the car”. The confident atmosphere in the Red Bull camp was hard to suppress, no matter now well its expectation management talk kicked in.

There were a few down-notes – Perez seemingly all-at-sea with the RB19’s requirements during his first running on the morning of day two, where Verstappen lost time in the afternoon to a small reliability “teething issue” – per Red Bull chief engineer Gianpiero Lambiase.

But these were drowned by the rest of the Red Bull orchestra performing well, with the RB19 tracked going best of all the new cars in Bahrain’s (limited) high-speed corners across all three days. Engine power modes are of course unknown, but the team rarely, if ever, shows its hand on this factor outside race event qualifying.

Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko reckoned the team had produced long-run times that “were clearly or at least faster than those of the competition”. And this is born out in the laps logged across the test

Perez’s day two issues may have been made worse by the added sensitivity to wind – often a factor in Bahrain – all the new machines are encountering thanks to the raised floor edges and diffuser throats mandated for 2023. But Red Bull insiders insist the RB19 is built to suit both its drivers – oversteer master Verstappen, plus Perez and his preference for a less-biting front end.

PLUS: The crucial tech changes F1 teams must adapt to in 2023

Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko reckoned the team had produced long-run times that “were clearly or at least faster than those of the competition”. And this is born out in the laps logged across the test – particularly relevant from day two onwards given the circuit had started off sandy and lacking F1 rubber, which went down aplenty with 3,993 total laps completed over the three days.

Across the test, Red Bull typically did shorter runs at an obviously standardised fuel level rather than the race-sim type running Mercedes and Ferrari did on the final day’s morning, which featured grid-style tyre warm-ups and burnouts in the pitlane from George Russell and Leclerc.

But when Red Bull ran longer, Verstappen's 12-lap stint pace of 1m37.546s on day two’s second session, it came very similar in pace to Russell's 13-lap stint on C2 hards (1m37.786s). But Verstappen’s run was completed on C3s mediums, not the more durable C2s – fitted to a Black Arrows car likely lower on fuel given Mercedes appeared to be simulating typical race burn off.

Verstappen will be encouraged by Red Bull's potential at the test as he seeks to defend his crown

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Leclerc’s long running for Ferrari appeared at the same time as Russell featured Red Bull-like shorter-stint lengths. His C3 pace compared intriguingly to Russell, coming in 0.6s down on their best averages, and was nearly 2.3s slower than Verstappen on average on the same compound.

The cooler temperatures and likely fuel difference for the Dutchman’s day two run obviously caveats in the discrepancies, but nevertheless, Leclerc's pace on softs after swapping from the mediums was encouraging. He was a touch inconsistent on times, but tyre life was there at end of a nine-lap stint – as he lapped nearly 0.2s quicker than his initial effort.

When Carlos Sainz took in the Ferrari for the final afternoon, the Scuderia didn’t engage in the late-session performance run ‘shootout’ completed by its Class A rivals. Leclerc had popped in an impressive 1m31.024s on the C4s a few hours earlier in the sweltering sunny conditions and when Sainz also took that rubber with two-and-half hours of testing left he ended up just 0.01s off his team-mate before going back to high-fuel work.

Leclerc’s quickest effort therefore stood as the fourth quickest time of the test overall – behind the two leaders at Red Bull and Mercedes, and the again interloping Alfa, this time through Bottas’s 1m30.827s on the C5s. But Ferrari surely heads into the 2023 season as Red Bull’s biggest threat, largely because of how its new challenger was tracked performing compared to its predecessor and because Mercedes seemingly continues to play catch-up with its unique design approach.

First off, the SF-23 ran without reliability drama – a feature of the test, with just four red flags actually caused by cars stopping and not coming out with the various systems checks, which included practice race starts on the Bahrain grid. But also significantly, the new Ferrari showed a strength this week lacking last year: straight-line prowess.

GPS trace data showed the Ferrari performing with the best end-of-straight speed of all cars and it could pack a punch off the corners too. This was a feature of the downforce-packing F1-75 from 2022, but Ferrari intended to marry that turn speed with a more aerodynamically efficient car this time around to take on a key Red Bull strength from last season.

Leclerc suggests Ferrari has indeed produced “a less draggy car”, which is powered by an apparently more powerful engine – per Ferrari power unit customer team boss Guenther Steiner of Haas. The F1-75 has altogether skinnier rear wing packages, with Ferrari trialling different arrangements throughout the test – going lower-drag on day two and higher on day three.

But, critically, Leclerc struck a notably realistic note on his 2023 title ambitions when he acknowledged the changes Ferrari has made from the F1-75 to the SF-23 meant it’s “struggling a little bit more in the corners” these days. The issue, he explained, was that with the altered aero profile, Ferrari is “still working quite a bit to find the sweetspot of the car in terms of set-up”.

Ferrari appears to have found more straightline speed, but Leclerc noted he was struggling more in corners

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The good news is that, theoretically, it can find the right balance and therefore maintain track position in races using the qualifying edge Red Bull is thought to fear Ferrari may still possess, as it did in 2022 only to be undone on straight-line speed and tyre management before its other issues dropped Leclerc from title contention in Verstappen’s second coronation. The Monegasque’s soft tyre pace at the conclusion of his race run is encouraging on the tyre-life front, while Ferrari is adamant its porpoising problem has been eradicated by the 2023 design rule tweaks.

PLUS: Has F1's porpoising problem been eradicated in the 2023 cars?

And the same can be said at Mercedes, which also had to engineer out the W13’s horribly stiff ride – the ‘bouncing’ phenomenon rather than porpoising. Rear-end oscillating seen at both squads on the test’s opening day was explained by apparently bigger track surface bumps towards the end of the main straight and midway through the Turn 12 right. It also emerged that many of the teams had been setting up their cars on day one with the intention of triggering porpoising via extreme low set-ups, to discover where to avoid going on such choices in the coming race events.

Mercedes’ mood at its launch had been notably negative, but this seemed to swing around on the opening day when it realised its altered suspension layouts compared for 2023 had solved the old car’s ride stiffness issue. However, its drivers weren’t gushing with praise for the W14’s handling balance, with Hamilton saying ahead of the final afternoon running that “some of the balance limitations that we had last year are [still] present”.

In both of these categories, the W14 does appear much more stable and compliant than its predecessor, albeit with regular rear-end sliding. Hamilton’s final session performance running regularly featured wobbles and time lost in sector three’s few corners

This followed Mercedes’ second day not going to plan as it “struggled to get the car balanced well across the changing conditions”, per trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin. Plus, Russell stopped with 90 minutes of that day remaining due a hydraulic pump problem that meant the part had to be replaced overnight.

There was a sense Mercedes was almost relieved it could crack into the overnight investigation it commenced to find the cause of the day two balance loss. This did lead to “progress” on day three, per Shovlin, who added that “both drivers felt the car was in a much better place across the range of conditions [on day three] and the balance is closer to what they require on single lap and long run”.

In both of these categories, the W14 does appear much more stable and compliant than its predecessor, albeit with regular rear-end sliding. Hamilton’s final session performance running regularly featured wobbles and time lost in sector three’s few corners, which suggests he was struggling to keep his C5s in shape. Bahrain’s coarse surface will have played a part in that – and indeed it’s an important caveat when assessing everything seen in the event just gone and the one upcoming, as it creates something of an outlier situation for the teams.

Mercedes believes its new car is more compliant than the 2022 W13, but while closer than it was a year ago still appears to be behind Red Bull and Ferrari

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Hamilton, who completed an early final day second session long run that didn't compare brilliantly with Verstappen's similar stint on day two, with a 1.2s difference on best averages, says Mercedes doesn’t “know where we will be next week”. But in any case, it’s in a much stronger position relative to its Class A rivals than this time a year ago.

PLUS: What we learned on the final day of F1 testing in Bahrain

Plus, the sidepod design changes Toto Wolff hinted at during the W14’s launch are still thought to be in the works. Mercedes is hopeful the thin spread of races during the season’s early months means it can use its development plan to close the gap to Red Bull it clearly still feels remains and appears to really be there given the time gaps on performance and long runs this week.

So far, all so 2022. But right now in 2023, there looks to be a change at the front of the crowded midfield.

Indeed, Aston Martin’s test performance was so smooth and strong – beyond the questions regarding Lance Stroll’s mountain biking crash injury meaning the team won’t yet say who will partner Fernando Alonso in the season opener – some have it threatening Mercedes’ place. That would be impressive, but at the very least the green team seems to have made a major step compared to its downforce-lacking, badly porpoising initial stab at a new ground-effects car from early 2022.

It has refined its Red Bull-style aero concept, which has resulted in a car handling balance position that had Alonso – seemingly in a ‘honeymoon’ period with his latest new squad – stroking the AMR23 around consistently and apparently rather easily all through testing. His pace was good enough to set the second and third fastest times on days one and two without needing the softer tyre compounds. And although Aston ended up down in seventh in the overall test times, it has been suggested that Alonso’s final evening C4 1m31.450s wasn’t done on a true qualifying simulation and that a bigger gain was being eyed.

“There is a lot of potential left for us to unlock and I think we are in a decent place heading into next week,” concluded Alonso, who was joined on days one and three by reserve driver and 2022 Formula 2 champion Felipe Drugovich. The Brazilian was aboard for Aston’s only reliability drama – right at the test’s start, when an electrical problem triggered a sensor failure and the AMR23 requiring recovering.

Alonso’s former squad, Alpine, might be in a position to pose quite the 2023 storyline sub-plot battle against Aston, but its place in the pecking order is tough to pick. This is because it plumped for a “conservative” overall run plan, according to Esteban Ocon, that featured little in the way of performance efforts. Indeed, Alpine propped up the timesheets with a 2.5s gap to Red Bull’s best – but it avoided the red-walled rubber and could yet be the midfield leader.

Aston Martin enjoyed an encouraging test with Alonso bedding well into his new team

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The team is understood to be bringing a significant upgrade package to next weekend’s race and it would be logical to think it did not want to go chasing car balance on lower fuel given its references may be about to change. Whatever happens, Alpine will be hoping the update improves its ride quality, which appeared very stiff on the final day and at one point Ocon locked up so badly at Turn 1 he needed the whole, massive run-off area behind the tight right-hander to slow down.

But Ocon is nevertheless retaining his London launch-event positivity, claiming "the car is much more stable in entry of corners". Once it comes to qualifying next weekend, Alpine could yet be a dark horse…

Two midfield teams were, overall, rather more upbeat than the rest: Haas and Alfa. At the former, when asked on the final day if the 2023 pre-season represented the best test so far for his team, Steiner claimed “preparation-wise, yes, absolutely, and also running-wise”.

The American team showed well on single-lap pace, with Kevin Magnussen getting close to the Ferrari drivers’ times during the final day three session performance runs – the Dane running the C4s. And having lost major running time across both tests in 2022, Haas was delighted to lose just a little on day one due to a minor throttle problem.

McLaren logged the least laps – just 312 – with its running blighted by needing to reinforce its front top/inside wheel covers on day three, a reoccurrence of a problem that meant the team encountered delays on day one working “to prevent a failure” in the same area

“We hit the targets we set ourselves,” concluded Steiner, who helms a happy camp right now. It’s one thought to be boosted by the reassurance of stability from its new title sponsorship cash pushing it up the cost cap limit and, of course, gladly rid of the distractions of Nikita Mazepin’s backing disappearing as a result of Russia’s Ukraine invasion this time a year ago.

Alfa, according to Bottas, in 2023 has “stepped up as a team in terms of the quality of the car” that “feels better than last year”. The Sauber-run team was another that did much better on reliability compared to 2022, but it did lose time with a start systems issue for Zhou late on day two, while Bottas ground to a halt with a suspected engine problem on the final morning and caused a red flag. The team’s C5 efforts on days two and three got it amongst the leaders, with Alfa of course also additionally benefitting from the improved Ferrari power unit alongside Haas.

Going from contented camps to a frustrated one, McLaren is surely not set for a really dramatic tumble down the true pecking order given the small evolution-factor of stable rules under a cost cap, plus being armed with two rapid drivers set to go to work in the MCL60s. But definitely it had the hardest test of all the teams.

McLaren endured a difficult test as it completed the fewest laps of any team

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

McLaren logged the least laps – just 312 – with its running blighted by needing to reinforce its front top/inside wheel covers on day three, a reoccurrence of a problem that meant the team encountered delays on day one working “to prevent a failure” in the same area per new team principal Andrea Stella. But really rather more concerning were the car handling messages coming from Norris and new signing Oscar Piastri, who said the MCL60 felt like it had “limitations” that are “similar to last year”.

Norris reckons the car “handles in a reasonably similar way to last year”, which means it is still a difficult beast to get stopped and turned in as desired. And this was evidenced during Autosport’s trackside observations of the orange machine, which appeared to be the most recalcitrant of the pack and likely relying on the potential of the team’s Baku (round four) planned upgrade package to deliver the handling its drivers require.

PLUS: What watching trackside in Bahrain indicates about F1 2023

Currently, the MCL60 also has a problem with “aerodynamic efficiency” according to Stella, which most likely means it’s heavy on drag running down the straights and so when the team takes out downforce in reaction, this makes it harder for its drivers to be quick and smooth in the corners. McLaren could yet spring a surprise, but it is starting the 2023 season once again on the back foot, despite Norris also saying “we’re definitely in a better place”, and McLaren’s struggles evoking memories of its similarly tough Bahrain test a year ago.

As with so many teams, the small design changes from 2022 are likely to bear out on the performance potential gains year-on-year for AlphaTauri and Williams, which brought up the rear of the field last year.

Red Bull’s sister squad didn’t make much a splash throughout testing, other than in the headlines which linked it to a possible upcoming sale, and Tsunoda slotting AlphaTauri into fifth in the overall times with a smooth C4 late in the final day.

Although the AT04’s handling was somewhat unremarkable viewed trackside, that bodes well given it was set on rubber a step harder than the C5s Bottas used to produce Alfa’s best time of testing. So too does AlphaTauri topping the mileage tally with 456 laps completed as it ran reliably even while it picked up “results that were not quite as expected” on its set-up evaluations, per chief race engineer Jonathan Eddolls.

Williams only headed Alpine in the overall times, but it was second only to AlphaTauri in terms of laps completed as it churned smoothly and fully through its planned programmes. Unlike Alpine, its best times came using the C5 rubber and the grip gains supplied by the softer compound.

“We’re definitely in a better place in comparison to this time last year, it’s just more about how far we can take it,” Alex Albon said of Williams, which is finally headed by ex-Mercedes strategy chief James Vowles. He is getting to work improving the team’s systems, which it hopes will lead to the long-term gains required to considerably climb the F1 pecking order.

AlphaTauri's new AT04 certainly wasn't lacking in the reliability stakes

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images