How Sainz went from the fringes to Ferrari in two years

Today's confirmation that Carlos Sainz Jr will join Ferrari as Sebastian Vettel's replacement for 2021 completes a remarkable recent career trajectory for the 25-year-old.

Less than two years ago, Sainz was at serious risk of being left without a seat as one of the most volatile driver markets in recent F1 history played out. This time around, he is the big winner, gaining an opportunity rarely afforded to midfield drivers nowadays by landing a race-winning car for the future. And it's one he has worked tirelessly to get.

In the early summer of 2018, Sainz was part of the gaggle of young drivers angling for moves within the driver market.

Despite having worked hard to pry him out of Toro Rosso early and sign him to replace Jolyon Palmer with four races to spare in the 2017 campaign, Renault had decided fairly early in the 'silly season' that Sainz was not at the top of its wishlist for 2019.

Daniel Ricciardo was Renault's top target to partner Nico Hulkenberg, with Esteban Ocon - who had tested for the team in its Lotus guise - being the second, more likely option to spring from financially-troubled Force India. Sainz was, at best, third-choice.

The Spaniard and his management were naturally exploring options elsewhere, including McLaren. And there was also the option Red Bull had on his services as he remained under its umbrella, meaning if Ricciardo did leave, he could be drafted in to partner Max Verstappen - who had been promoted ahead of him to Red Bull four races into 2016 after a season together at Toro Rosso.

McLaren was hopeful Fernando Alonso would continue to lead its team beyond 2018, targeting a 'Nando and Lando' pairing, planning Norris's promotion far earlier than his September announcement. It was also talking to Ricciardo and Ocon as potential options, as well as Sainz.

The various permutations left a number of drivers at risk - but chiefly Ocon and Sainz.

Had Renault signed Ocon and Alonso remained with McLaren, Sainz could have been frozen out. And with Red Bull preferring to promote from within its own family instead of recalling a driver it had loaned out, Sainz wasn't likely to be the favourite if Ricciardo had left for McLaren.

He wasn't a first choice for any of the three teams.

He may not be a proven race winner, but what Ferrari wants right now is a perfect foil for Charles Leclerc, not a team leader

Ocon was a man in demand and had contract offers on the table from both Renault and McLaren. With the possibility of Ricciardo leaving Red Bull seeming so remote, he snubbed McLaren, seemingly bound to partner Hulkenberg at Renault.

But then came the twist that would ultimately leave Ocon snookered and without a drive for 2019. Ricciardo made the shock decision to join Renault, shutting off Ocon's only escape route from Force India. The McLaren deal had already been rejected, putting the Frenchman in a precarious position.

By the time Ocon had knocked back McLaren's proposal, Sainz had entered the frame to replace Alonso, who had by now decided he wanted a break from F1 and would not be racing in 2019. Alonso confirmed his departure on 14 August, paving the way for Sainz to be formally confirmed two days later.

For the first time in his career, Sainz had a multi-year contract, and would be exiting the Red Bull programme altogether at the end of the season. Sainz had stressed throughout 2018 that he wanted a deal longer than one year regardless of where he ended up, craving stability. With a two-year contract at McLaren, he felt he would have the grounding to impress without fearing for his future - and how he impressed.

The close midfield fight was one of the most entertaining stories to follow throughout last season, but Sainz was ever-present at the head of that battle. Had a championship been run excluding the top three teams in 2019, Sainz would have won the title by 50 points - he was the undisputed midfield king.

The high point naturally came in Brazil, where he fought from last on the grid to finish third after Lewis Hamilton was handed a post-race penalty to score his first F1 podium - and McLaren's first in almost six years.

Sainz's heroics also helped McLaren to fourth place in the constructors' championship, its best finish since 2012. The partnership he had struck up with Norris off-track created enormously good vibes at the team, a pleasant by-product of its on-track success.

Unsurprisingly, McLaren was eager to get a new deal done with Sainz beyond 2020. Sainz said in February he felt there was "no rush at all", but added: "I'm very, very happy in McLaren, and I have a lot of faith in this project and the way it's panning out at the beginning."

Sainz may have starred in the midfield, but any opportunity with one of the 'big three' teams seemed unlikely to come his way. McLaren had made clear it was focusing on a long-term project, with Sainz being a big part of its future plans. Once the budget cap came into force and had started to level out the field, it seemed like a good place for him to be.

But then the Vettel bombshell dropped, changing plans completely. Ferrari had a vacant seat, and this time around - at the most important time - Sainz was at the top of the list.

He may not be a proven race winner, but what Ferrari wants right now is a perfect foil for Charles Leclerc, not a team leader. Ricciardo may have been the bigger name, and a proven winner, yet he wasn't the right fit for what Ferrari needed this time around.

It is an opportunity Sainz earned with his 2019 heroics. Memories are typically short in F1. The old cliche of only being as good as your last race rings largely true.

This kind of short-term thinking has varying levels of success. Sergio Perez joined McLaren off the back of an exceptional 2012 campaign, and lasted one season. Pierre Gasly was picked ahead of Sainz for Red Bull in 2019 after impressing at Toro Rosso, only to be dropped after 12 races. Contrasting those are Kimi Raikkonen, Alonso and of course Leclerc, all of whom gained top seats off just a single impressive season.

Sainz was overlooked by Red Bull when young upstart Verstappen gained all the focus during their time as Toro Rosso team-mates and overlooked again in 2018 by both Red Bull and Renault, but toiled away and focused on delivering on-track

The life of an F1 midfielder can be brutal. Nico Hulkenberg's downfall is a perfect example of what can happen if you're not quite in the right place at the right time. Perez is a driver who experienced the opposite, gaining a rare opportunity to land a front-running seat following Lewis Hamilton's McLaren exit, but failed to make it work.

The best example of a midfield driver grasping the opportunity to step up to 'Class A' in recent times is Valtteri Bottas, who is now a regular race winner with Mercedes. Had Nico Rosberg not quit suddenly at the end of his 2016 title campaign, and had Bottas not been so impressive with Williams in the precluding seasons, his career could look very different right now.

Few would have predicted two years ago that Sainz could be a candidate for a future Ferrari drive. He was quietly impressive as a midfield driver then, but Ferrari wouldn't do "quietly impressive" - especially not when it had world champions Vettel and Raikkonen on its books back then, with Leclerc waiting in the wings.

Sainz fought to prove himself. He was overlooked by Red Bull when young upstart Verstappen gained all the focus during their time as Toro Rosso team-mates. He was overlooked again in 2018 by both Red Bull and Renault.

But he toiled away, ignored the snubs, and focused on delivering on-track. And that work ethic has earned him the opportunity so many drivers dream of in F1, yet so few actually experience: racing for Ferrari.

Fortunate timing? Perhaps. But Sainz has earned his shot. It is one he will surely maximise.