How Russell 'gut feeling' Belgian GP strategy led to post-race heartache

“Yep.” George Russell’s mind, it seemed, was made up.

A few laps after planting the seed of a one-stop strategy into his engineers’ heads, the idea was put to him after a few more laps circulating on the hard tyres. He barely needed to calculate it. The degradation was lower than expected, his lap times were still competitive, and he felt completely comfortable on his current set of white-walled Pirellis.

And, at that juncture, it was well worth the gamble. Russell had passed Sergio Perez for fourth place, but did not look to be on for anything more than that if he’d stuck to a conventional two-stopper; Max Verstappen was likely to undercut him, and he would also have been vulnerable to Lando Norris’s advances with a second stop.

Problem was, he’d have to go a long way on his hard tyres if he was to dodge a second stop; he’d called in at the end of lap 10, and so he’d have to coax them around the Spa circuit for a full 34 laps to get to the end. No bother, Russell thought.

Although Lewis Hamilton was breathing down his neck at the close of the race, Russell managed to nail his corner exits through La Source to ward off a DRS-affected overtake on the Kemmel Straight, also leaving Stavelot with enough speed in reserve to ensure Hamilton could not attempt a dive into the Bus Stop chicane.

It appeared that Russell, through his own strategy call borne from his read of the tyres throughout the race, had played this to utter perfection. And, for his part, he had.

Russell's moment was cut agonisingly short as he was disqualified for having an underweight car

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

“The tyres, the car felt really good,” Russell waxed lyrically, barely concealing a pearly white grin that could rival that of a Cheshire cat. “I got into this groove, and especially when I got into the lead, there were no backmarkers in front, no other cars in front, and it kind of felt like driving on a simulator.

“I was looking at the gap to Lewis and the rate he was catching me. And I just thought there's no reason why we can't stay out here and do this one stop and try and make it work.”

Yet minutes after Russell left the press conference, beaming ear to ear with the satisfaction that he’d called his own fortune, an FIA-emblazoned email dropped into the inboxes of the paddock’s personnel. The content would have wiped the smile from his face. His car was found to be underweight by 1.5kg after the fuel was drained out of it for the mandatory fuel sample.

When the FIA put Russell’s car on the scales after the race, it already sat at the 798kg minimum weight limit. When the fuel was subsequently drained of 2.8 litres, there were two problems: one, that there were still a few glugs left in the tank, and two, the car was somewhat below the minimum weight. Disqualification beckoned.

There were two theories that prevailed: that Mercedes had failed to calculate for tyre pick-up as Spa does not feature a parade lap, and that Russell had worn away 1.5kg extra of tyre by one-stopping

It was a shot to Mercedes’ bow, one that it did not have an answer for. There was no missing bodywork or chunk of displaced ballast that could offer a 1.5kg smoking gun. The team had simply miscalculated – and with it, had unravelled Russell’s assertive opportunism in one fell swoop.

There were two theories that prevailed: that Mercedes had failed to calculate for tyre pick-up as Spa does not feature a parade lap, and that Russell had worn away 1.5kg extra of tyre by one-stopping. These barely stack up: Hamilton did not suffer the former issue, and other one-stoppers did not encounter the latter.

The most egregious aspect of Russell’s disqualification was that it completely took the shine away from the Silver Arrows’ miraculous turnaround in form, having completely missed the mark with its Friday set-up. The team concluded FP2 with scant hopes of a podium finish on Sunday, let alone a provisional 1-2.

Hamilton couldn't get the pass done on Russell in the closing laps, but was instead awarded the victory hours later

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

And yet, Mercedes consequently overshadowed the pre-race favourites in McLaren and Red Bull. Even with Russell’s disqualification, Mercedes took the win in Belgium.

Hamilton had resisted Oscar Piastri’s late-race surge for second on the road, albeit in risky circumstances as the Australian put Hamilton under a serious level of scrutiny at the climax. When Russell’s result was expunged from the final standings, Hamilton was granted his 105th victory, albeit one he won’t necessarily count as among his most memorable. The seven-time world champion had been outfoxed by his team-mate in pellucid fashion, and hardly seemed entirely happy about it in the aftermath.

But that’s not to discredit Hamilton’s efforts. The result on the podium simply came down to his relative passiveness on the radio against Russell in the strategic arena. And that’s understandable, when one considers that he had led proceedings among the two-stoppers after dispatching the two men lining the front row on the grid. It’s not easy to take a risk when a rare victory sits in one’s grasp.

One challenger was effectively taken out of the running at the start: Verstappen. Red Bull had, mirroring the two seasons prior, used the Spa weekend as a cheaper hit for a power unit penalty. The Dutchman’s effortless glide to the fastest time in damp conditions came encumbered with the knowledge that he would not take pole position, shuffling him down the pack.

He hoped to swashbuckle his way through the order in the same manner as over the previous two seasons, but his progress was stilted. Red Bull no longer possesses the same level of performance in hand over its fellow top-four constructors.

Verstappen’s relegation to 11th on the grid promoted Charles Leclerc onto pole and put the beleaguered Perez onto the front row. The Mexican had perhaps hoped that his renewed performance in qualifying would give him the shot of confidence that he so sorely needed, but he ended up being little competition for Hamilton at the start. Instead, the two were side-by-side into the first corner, and Perez was easily outdragged on the exit of La Source by the Mercedes, which had already got ahead before the Eau Rouge compression to force Perez into ceding the position.

Leclerc was next on Hamilton’s checklist, and he had the pace to stay within DRS range to mount an overtake on the Kemmel Straight. The inevitable came to pass on the third lap. Hamilton breezed past Leclerc and held the lead before the Les Combes braking zone, and immediately began to set upon building a one-second advantage over the Monegasque to ensure there would be no DRS-assisted riposte.

Perez was unable to defend his front row starting position in the early stages

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

This is where Hamilton started to become surprised by his own pace. Although the spectre of Friday had threatened to loom over Mercedes, it was conspicuously absent once the race got under way. Instead, he had the opportunity to roll back the years to his purple patch with Mercedes during the late 2010s.

“It was literally night and day different today,” Hamilton explained. “On Friday, it was pretty disastrous for both of us and [we were] really struggling with balance. Then today the car came alive, and I was really surprised to get into the lead and then pull away from everyone. It felt fully under control – and I've not had that for years…”

Russell, for his part, sat in fifth behind Piastri. He’d moved up when another expected victory challenger in Norris meandered wide on the exit of La Source, tousling the gravel and bogging down to cede position to the Mercedes and to Carlos Sainz. It was another scruffy opening to a race from Norris, one that he could scarcely afford as he aimed to capitalise on Verstappen’s lowly grid position.

Suggestions from Pirelli ahead of the race were that the race was a nailed-on two-stopper, and some teams might even consider three if the degradation was marginally higher than expected. Instead, the inverse applied

Although Hamilton continued to build his lead, he started to suffer with a modicum of graining. A patchwork of the time-tested Spa track surface and a handful of relaid areas had made tyre degradation something of an unknown, not helped by the distinct lack of dry running throughout the weekend. It proved to be manageable and Hamilton kept the tyres in – although it became apparent that his medium Pirelli boots were starting to lose performance at the rear.

One tour after Russell’s lap 10 stop for hard tyres, which would prove to be the younger Briton’s final set for the grand prix, Hamilton also called in for the harder compound to ensure he preserved the lead over Leclerc. The Ferrari driver had asked to go long, worried that he was going to be undercut by the chasing pack, but the Italian squad instead opted to pull him in a lap later to minimise the damage. It proved to be the call that preserved track position, ensuring Leclerc could shake out in second once the long-stopping Norris and Sainz finally called in.

Sainz, who had attempted an alternate strategy on the hard tyre, eventually collected a set of mediums at the end of lap 20 to restore Hamilton’s lead. This stood at 1.9s over Leclerc, and the Ferrari driver showed few signs of making any inroads prior to his second stop at the end of the 25th lap.

Here’s where the Mercedes duo diverged. To cover off Leclerc, Hamilton stopped at the end of the next lap for another set of hards, despite having been happy on the set he was currently sporting. In the meantime, Russell had told his team to “think about the one-stop", sending his suite of engineers to their calculators to check if they could make something out of his suggestion.

Hamilton had been controlling the race, but came in relatively early for a second set of hards to preserve his advantage over Leclerc

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Suggestions from Pirelli ahead of the race were that the race was a nailed-on two-stopper, and some teams might even consider three if the degradation was marginally higher than expected. Instead, the inverse applied.

Russell reported that the tyres were “just getting faster and faster; the grip was improving” with each lap, cementing the decision on his mind. When the team came on the radio to confirm the decision, Russell’s “yep” was saturated with conviction; the decision was made, and he’d stay out.

“When you feel something in your gut, you have to go with it,” Russell revealed. “But when every single driver and team is pitting, and after all the data we had on Friday suggested a one-stop was not even close to being viable, you do kind of question that a couple of times, thinking, ‘Are we missing something here? Why isn't anybody else doing this?’

“But I felt at one with the tyres and I managed it a little bit at the beginning, and I knew that would give me a bit of money back at the end. We've got so many sensors and data points on the car, but there's only 20 of us driving these F1 cars. You can feel how the tyre is sliding over the track. And you've just got to trust your gut sometimes.”

Pirelli chief Mario Isola explained after the race that the tyre company expected a much bigger split between the medium and hard compounds on pace, but track evolution brought the hard very much into play. The hard showed few signs of graining or abrasion, and degradation was the main mitigating factor – which was also gradual.

The lead was going to come to Russell when the net-third Piastri eventually pitted for the second and final time, four laps later than Hamilton. The Hungary winner had gone longer and had pumped in a series of good laps once he’d got into clean air, estimating that being behind Leclerc earlier on had cost him about a second per lap. “Clean air is king,” the Melburnian dryly noted after pumping in a fastest lap to rather demonstrate the point, but he ended up losing a couple of seconds after going marginally beyond his pitbox to give his front jack operator a fright.

Piastri reckoned that he simply “went in a bit hot” and was surprised by the lack of grip available in the pitlane - relative to his practice stops on Friday, where he noted he was “always undershooting the box” as the car came to rest a bit more easily.

“It wasn't my finest moment, but I don't think it really cost much in the scheme of things,” he added. “I think it meant I probably would have just been stuck behind Lewis and George for another lap or two at the end…”

Piastri needed two attempts to pass Leclerc after losing time to overshooting his final stop, but didn't believe he could have passed the Mercedes duo

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

When Russell confirmed that he was happy to stick with his tyres, with 12 laps still to go, he sat 6.5s clear of Hamilton, while Piastri closed on Leclerc’s gearbox. Mercedes needed Leclerc to keep the McLaren at bay, but it was expected that the SF-24 would lack the pace against a low-drag MCL38.

When Hamilton was warned of Piastri’s pace, he asked engineer Pete Bonnington if he was “on target to beat him”. “It is close,” came Bonnington’s sage reply, unwittingly forecasting the final stages. Indeed, Piastri put a move around the outside of Leclerc into Les Combes on the 36th lap, but was still over five seconds in arrears to the second-placed Hamilton.

In turn, Hamilton was eating into Russell’s lead at a rate of almost a second per lap. Old hards versus a much younger set appeared to be a straightforward battle, certainly in favour of the latter by most metrics. It was with four laps to go that Hamilton had cut that lead into one that could service his DRS activation, while Piastri was given the hurry-up by race engineer Tom Stallard to catch them.

Norris had flashes of pace, but never capitalised on the opportunity to pass Verstappen with DRS despite the Red Bull’s higher wing level

But the dirty air effect, allied to the reduced power of DRS thanks to the low-drag wings, ensured that Hamilton struggled to get a move on against Russell. The #63 car seemed to find great traction out of the tighter corners, repelling the threat of Hamilton and allowing Piastri to close in. It looked risky from Mercedes’ perspective, but Piastri soon faced the same problem by the final lap.

The order was set, and Russell seemed to secure a famous victory against the odds – and Mercedes had taken a decisive win against two stronger outfits. It still retained the latter accolade, but Russell’s stripped victory rather tainted an otherwise salubrious affair. After the fact, Hamilton had angled for a one-stop too – but his call that the “tyres were fine” was much less assured than Russell’s call from the cockpit.

Although Leclerc had faded towards the end, leaving centre stage when Piastri swept past, he still had a part to play. Verstappen and Norris, perhaps licking their respective wounds and ruing the what-might-have-beens, were closing in on the Ferrari at a vast rate – but also came to the same fate of Russell’s chasing entourage.

Norris had flashes of pace, but never capitalised on the opportunity to pass Verstappen with DRS despite the Red Bull’s higher wing level. When the two caught Leclerc, it was effectively set in stone.

Verstappen had enough in hand to keep Norris at bay despite needing to keep his mediums alive

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

It looked like McLaren had dropped the ball once again with strategy, although Piastri explained that it had not deeply considered a one-stopper beyond the most fleeting of thoughts. Red Bull, meanwhile, perhaps figured that Verstappen would make more progress – instead, he got caught in a DRS train after the first lap, and had to rely on undercutting Sainz and a swap with Perez to ensure he could at least keep Norris at bay.

And so, the summer break comes at a perfect time for Formula 1’s current top three teams.

Mercedes has a bittersweet victory to mull over, and can be equally proud of its progress and disappointed with what team principal Toto Wolff termed as the team having “clearly made a mistake”. Red Bull must assess how its prior dominance has faded away, and McLaren must again consider how it contrived to throw away a bigger, better result. There's much in the way of soul-searching ahead of F1’s return at Zandvoort – as the season’s second half promises some explosive spectacles ahead.

Who will return from F1's summer break at Zandvoort with the biggest smile of the lot?

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images