Have Red Bull's F1 weaknesses really been found out?

"It's like I'm running without suspension, so it's jumping around a lot; not absorbing any kerb strikes or bumps or camber changes," a rueful Max Verstappen noted after qualifying at the Monaco Grand Prix. The day before, he'd encountered headaches from "jumping around like a kangaroo" on the bumps and kerbs - now, the pain in his scrambled grey matter began to intensify as he tried to understand why Red Bull's form was beginning to elude it.

He had some idea, at least. Since Formula 1's aero regulations were dramatically changed for 2022, Red Bull has been almost perfect in every conceivable situation. The harmony between its suspension design and its aero balance had been almost unshakeable, to the point where the car was excellent in almost every situation.

Long radius corners? Check; minimising roll and pitch had ensured a stable aero platform for the floor to work. High speed? Check; the floor was building plenty of consistent downforce to carry the speed into the corners. Medium-to-slow speed? Check; again, its eagerness to iron out the effect of dive ensured that energised airflow didn't spill from the underbody, and nor did the front of the floor choke the flow coming in.

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How about slower, bumpy circuits? Well, there's always an Achilles' heel, a point where the River Styx's waters fail to permeate and imbue with an aura of immortality.

"It is not something new, we have had this problem since 2022," Verstappen reckoned. "Of course, the last few years we have had a car advantage, so it gets masked a little bit because we gain in the corners where the kerbs and bumps are not so much of a limitation. But, with everyone catching up, when you are not improving your weakest point, you get found out and that's what happened this weekend."

There's credence to Verstappen's comments here and, although Ferrari briefly factored in the 2022 title race, its poor tyre management and wavering strategy calls often cost it dearly in the races. As time elapsed in a race, Ferrari struggled more and Red Bull could use its superior tyre preservation to turn the screw. In any case, there are more glaring examples in 2023, simply because the RB19 that year was such a compelling package: one that has overtaken McLaren's iconic MP4/4 as the most fearsome dominator of a season.

Verstappen got pole at Monaco that year for two reasons: one, because he wrung the neck of his car and narrowly evaded a clip with the barrier to squeeze every drop of performance from it, and two, because there wasn't really anyone else to challenge. Fernando Alonso came closest in his Aston Martin, but there was still a clear disparity between the two machines.

Red Bull's weaknesses began to show in Singapore last year

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Singapore was where Red Bull's shakiness on bumpy street courses really came to roost, partly thanks to a resurgence from both Ferrari and McLaren, and the rest due to a complete miscue on set-up. Prior to the race in the city-state, chief engineer Paul Monaghan did not wish to elaborate on the key problems that Red Bull had faced that weekend - but did hint that it was an inherent issue with the car.

Now, the 'data set' appears to be growing - and, per Verstappen's quotes over this year's Monaco weekend, it does appear that the team has been "found out".

First, before indulging too much in the hyperbole, it's important to understand why Red Bull is so comparatively weak at circuits where bumps and kerb strikes are the order of the day. To get the most out of its floor, the RB20 (and its predecessors) is run stiffly to ensure that the underbody retains a consistent level of performance. That's quite natural with a ground-effect car, as a fluctuation in ride height can result in the car bottoming out and causing differences in downforce output. It ensures that, when there's a compression in the road, the sprung mass isn't squatting too much and causing flow to stall if the minimum ride height exceeds a value it was designed to work at.

Looking at the GPS data, it was actually the traction out of those corners where the Red Bull really struggled

On most circuits, particularly those with fewer imperfections in the track surface, this is of great benefit to Red Bull. Its advancements in minimising dive under braking and reducing roll in the longer-radius corners maintains a very stable platform. But, on a circuit where a softer suspension treatment is needed, the conditions that Red Bull's aero platform needs to perform at its optimum level do not appear to mesh.

Let's compare that to the Ferrari. Despite its progress, it's not as compelling a prospect on a flat, purpose-built circuit compared to the Red Bull, but its suspension package seems to have a wider range of possibilities. When it comes to a street circuit, which requires a car to be much more softly sprung to absorb the kerbs and bumps, the Ferrari has far more compliance built into it. This means that, when the car's wheels respond to the track surface, the load in the tyre remains and continues to generate grip; with stiffer suspension, the load tends to differ and start to hurt traction.

That's in theory, at least. In reality, the Red Bull is actually quite good with its initial kerb-strike ability, and has managed to pair the stiffness present in its suspension with an ability to bite at the kerbs. Looking at the GPS data, it was actually the traction out of those corners where the Red Bull really struggled; the RB20 could hit the raised red-and-white sections quite well, but it seemed to be unsettled in the aftermath. That suggests it hasn't quite unearthed the right level of rebound to calm the car down post-bumps, but one must bear in mind that their vehicle dynamicists are far more experienced and educated than this writer and his assertions. So please, take that with a grain or two of salt.

Verstappen is right that, now the grid has compressed and the likes of Ferrari and McLaren are putting Red Bull under greater scrutiny, Red Bull is being punished more often for its off-weekends. That was the case in Miami and it was almost the case at Imola - now, Monaco is the clearest example of that.

Verstappen riding the kerbs on the exit of the Swimming Pool

Photo by: Erik Junius

The interesting sidenote here is that it dispels the myth of Sergio Perez's potency on street tracks. The Mexican driver carried an aura of something of a street specialist after his 2022 and 2023 wins at Monaco, Singapore, Jeddah, and Baku - but actually, they all rather seem to be circumstantial.

However, this doesn't mean that Red Bull's empire is now going to fall immediately. The team is not going to capitulate simply because it has been beaten a few times - that's simply not in the nature of its 1000-strong force of highly competitive personnel.

It will fall eventually, as all hegemonies do; it's already undergoing its own Roman Empire-esque split into two factions, as it is known that the Austrian side and the Thai side of the Red Bull business are angling for ultimate control. But it took another 200 years for the Roman Empire to truly fall, even as the outside "barbarian" civilisations grew in power around it. Rome wasn't built in a day and, although it was technically sacked in one, it took a long time for that to actually come to pass.

Ultimately, Red Bull will remain the favourite when the circus travels to other venues. Montreal will likely offer some challenges, but the team has gone well in Canada in recent seasons. There are circuits like Silverstone, Monza, Spa, et al that should continue to benefit the RB20's sensibilities, as will the Middle Eastern races at the end of the calendar. The other teams still have much on their agendas to truly pose a concerted challenge to the Milton Keynes outfit at those venues, and it'll take more than simply exploiting one weakness to mount a championship tilt.

To avoid invoking Betteridge's Law of Headlines, let's answer the initial question: a Red Bull weakness has been 'found out', and it'll likely hold ramifications further down the line at circuits like Singapore and Las Vegas. But there will be more than one weakness that is yet to be uncovered, and one that is still exploitable. It's all relative, and if another team suddenly finds a few tenths over Red Bull's current machinery, then its weaknesses lie in more than one area. There's no such thing as a perfect car.

Perez was unable to star in Monaco despite his apparent street circuit prowess

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images