Great debate: Who will be the 2025 Formula 1 world champion?

Max Verstappen – Jake Boxall-Legge

Let’s assume, for this thought experiment, that we’re going to have four teams that are all pretty evenly matched at the sharp end of the grid: McLaren, Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes. If that is indeed the case, then let’s also assume an equal split of wins: six each for all four teams. In that regard, it’s going to come to this: which drivers from each team will win the lion’s share of races, and how they perform on weekends where they don’t have the fastest car.

These are conditions that reward two things: a driver’s skill, and their superiority over a team-mate. At McLaren, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri should be evenly matched, as the Australian continues his progress in F1. Ferrari has its box-office duo of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, while Mercedes’ results might swing towards the more experienced George Russell early on, as Andrea Kimi Antonelli grows into the season.

Then there’s Red Bull. Liam Lawson might be a fine driver, but you would expect him to trail Max Verstappen across the year; he’s there to be the four-time champion’s support act. That puts Verstappen on course to win all six of the allotted races assuming an equal split between the Big Four and, in that case, it comes down to driver skill for the remaining results. 

For all of his late-season ‘tactics’ in battling Norris in 2024, Verstappen seemed to understand the importance of picking up the next-best results when victories aren’t necessarily available. And, even on weekends when the Red Bull isn’t quite up to it, he’ll still be in the mix, which should allow him the chance to surpass his expected wins total as others falter. That’s what championships are built on, and Verstappen is simply the best – and most uncompromising – operator out there.

Lando Norris – Ben Hunt

When I spoke to Lando Norris in Abu Dhabi in December at the final race of last season, he told me he’d “learned what he needed to be a world champion; a different mentality”. And I have absolutely no reason to doubt him.

Norris has been accused of being too soft in the past in his battles with Max Verstappen, but in the same interview he explained how he now realised that he needed to stand up to the reigning world champion’s aggressive driving style if he is ever to beat him to the title.

Norris has the speed. He also appears to have the car beneath him if McLaren’s pre-season testing pace is anything to go by. McLaren and Aston Martin are the only two teams to have kept the same driver pairing for 2025 and, while the impressive development of Oscar Piastri means he too comes into the mix for the championship, Norris’s experience working with the team should give him the edge.

I am firmly of the belief that Norris learned from his first proper title fight where, let’s face it, he was always playing catch-up after Verstappen’s great start to 2024. 

Should McLaren be quick out of the box in Australia and Norris kick off the season with a solid start, then that will set the tone and motivation for the rest of the year. However, it is crucial that he recovers quickly from any setbacks and he cannot allow his head to drop.

Norris certainly knows what he needs to do and has the capability. He’s got to go out there and do it consistently, and I believe he can.

Verstappen remains F1’s most uncompromising operator, but Norris reckons he’s learned how not to back down

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Oscar Piastri – Mark Mann-Bryans

Not since 2008 has someone wearing the colours of McLaren – whatever they may be – lifted the F1 drivers’ championship. McLaren now has the best car, it won the constructors’ title last year and looked very strong in pre-season testing.

That is why we could have a first McLaren world drivers’ champion in 17 years and there would certainly be similarities drawn with Lewis Hamilton: a young, talented, single-minded but level-headed individual who clearly has speed and can beat the rest of the field on his day. One major difference, though, is that the current McLaren incumbent I’m selecting to win the crown is Australian.

Similarly to Alex’s choice of Charles Leclerc (below), from a narrative point of view having a McLaren world champion would tick a lot of boxes – albeit we are both tipping the driver who does not quite tell a British fairytale.

Piastri was dogged in the way he raced against Lando Norris last year, never truly letting his team-mate get far enough clear that out-and-out team orders meant he had to cede track position to the man chasing down Max Verstappen. Instead, he shone in the edge of the spotlight, winning in Hungary and Azerbaijan – the latter in particular showing that he has the capability to stand clear of the field on any given Sunday.

If he can start the season with a dream victory in his home city of Melbourne, Piastri’s confidence will be sky-high. He proved in 2024 that he is much more than just a second driver and, given a fair wind, the 23-year-old could leave a lasting mark on F1 to become the first Australian champion since Alan Jones in 1980.

Charles Leclerc – Alex Kalinauckas

From a narrative point of view, Formula 1 is in desperate need of a winner in Ferrari red this year. But I don’t think it will necessarily get the one that the championship officials and arch-marketeers really want. Because I believe Charles Leclerc can be the 2025 world champion.

He deservedly still has his reputation as F1’s best and quickest qualifier – and there is no one more exciting to watch over a single lap. But the feeling that at any moment – often including in races – Leclerc would throw it all away in blazing Gilles Villeneuve-esque style? He did much to change that narrative with his excellent 2024 campaign.

Last season was the best of Leclerc’s career by a big margin. He did lose out to Lando Norris and could, of course, operate without the pressure of the long-shot title chase faced by the McLaren driver, but that was really down to Ferrari’s development misstep. His mistakes were fewer and he showed his mettle against Max Verstappen much better overall. Combine the speed, the reducing rate of errors and his beautiful racecraft, and you now surely have a true world title contender.

Lewis Hamilton’s presence in the other Ferrari SF-25 naturally represents a big challenge to this prediction. But don’t underestimate the drive Leclerc will have to succeed against the seven-time world champion in his team. He’s smart enough to work with Hamilton, too. Together, they’ll make for a truly absorbing story this season.

This article is one of many in the new monthly issue of Autosport magazine. For more premium content, take a look at the April 2025 issue and subscribe today.

Can Piastri be the first Australian F1 world champion since Alan Jones in 1980?

Photo by: Erik Junius