Does McLaren now have Formula 1's fastest package?

“I think Red Bull are struggling in certain tracks. Same as us. McLaren is quick everywhere. They're quick in low speed. They're flat in Turn 3 and 9. They were fastest in Turn 5. So I just don't see McLaren having any weakness right now."

Carlos Sainz was effusive in his praise of McLaren's current form, clearly keen to underline the all-round pace that the Woking team seems to have generated over the past few races. That's rather nice of him, you'd say, but he's not the only one.

In his post-race verdict after taking victory at the Spanish Grand Prix, Max Verstappen perhaps blended his own compliments of the papaya cars with a warning to his own Red Bull team. He reckoned that "to win races you need to be normally the outright fastest, and that's what has been lacking a little bit the last few races".

And Verstappen would know, as he's been one half of the outright fastest package in Formula 1 across the past couple of seasons. There's a parallel to his own rise to power, one that has borne a larger reflection of Lando Norris and McLaren threat in his rearview mirror - just as Lewis Hamilton had seen Verstappen loom larger behind him towards the end of 2020.

PLUS: Spanish Grand Prix Driver Ratings 2024

Even Norris was keen to point out that his MCL38 was "for sure, the quickest" around the Barcelona circuit, helped by running a slightly smaller rear wing compared to the new Red Bull concoction at the back of the car. That was evident in his pole lap, and in closing down Verstappen towards the end of the race.

The popular interpretation of the Spanish GP weekend across all forms of media is that Red Bull no longer has the 'best' car in F1 - that honour now apparently belongs to McLaren. But is that true, or just capricious speculation given that Red Bull did not dominate the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya race as much as expected?

Norris and Verstappen were virtually neck and neck in qualifying in Spain

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Let's start by comparing Verstappen's RB20 to Norris' MCL38 across their Barcelona qualifying laps, mainly to see where the Dutchman lost time and determine if that's symptomatic of a greater trend. We'll start from the exit of Turn 2, because Verstappen had a tow into the first corner and enjoyed a 5-6kph advantage on the straight at the start of his lap.

Verstappen had lost most of that 0.1s advantage that he'd accrued into the first corner, and Norris pulled their deltas level through Turn 3 and on the run to Turn 4; their sector times were almost identical on the approach to the tighter of the two right-handers. And, in carrying a little more speed through the corner, this was the point at which Norris started to flex an advantage. And, although he sacrificed a little bit of time on the way into Turn 5, carrying more speed through the corner once more ensured that he could step up his advantage.

The immediate acceleration phase seems to be the point at which McLaren builds a break, although the Red Bull makes up for that around the mid-range and beyond: in other words, the longer the straight, the more time the Red Bull gets back. Perhaps that's through gearing, as Verstappen seems to change up later over the lap and suggests that it appears to get more out of the Honda-designed powertrain in the back. The rev counter seems to back this up, Verstappen letting the car top out before he pulls at the right-hand paddle to shift up.

It's in those shorter-radius, slower corners where the McLaren really shines in comparison

Norris was running less wing, as we've already contended, but it's also known how good Red Bull is when DRS is applied; its ability to dump a load of drag seems to exploit that top-end strength further. At the end of the lap, the two are split by 0.08s at the final corner - a small lift from Norris closes that gap to 0.02s. Although the McLaren is still very good in the faster, longer-radius corners, Red Bull just seems to be a bit more planted.

It's in those shorter-radius, slower corners where the McLaren really shines in comparison. Norris's top-end speed is a little shy of Verstappen's, but the Red Bull also ends up shedding more speed to make it around the tighter corners. And that's where the time is; minimising the time in the low-speed bits usually earns a hatful of credits on a qualifying lap.

The stiffness of the Red Bull delivers a lot across the higher-speed and medium-speed corners as these generally require a stable floor to build up the downforce. But when it comes to low-speed, where downforce drops with the square of velocity, mechanical grip is key. And perhaps that little extra compliance on board of the McLaren makes it easier to coax around those corner profiles.

Over the course of the grand prix, Norris' pace in the second and third stints was ultimately faster. Since there's so many variables, particularly with their offsets on stints, this probably makes the final stint the most representative. Norris spent more time in traffic during the first stint and also had to stretch his initial set of softs out for longer, hence the steady time loss over the first 20 laps.

As in Candada, Verstappen had just enough to keep his Red Bull in front

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

On the medium, Verstappen had to go longer and thus had more management to do in this phase of the race - although that's helped a little bit by leading. Clean air ensures that the car's aerodynamic state is much more predictable, and thus a driver loses less tyre life through two mechanics: not sliding around with the reduced downforce experienced when following another car, and not experiencing overheating.

Norris, by contrast, endured a period of slower laps on his mediums through passing the Mercedes duo; George Russell proved to be a particularly stubborn nut to crack, evinced by their thrilling battle across the first sector and into Turns 5 and 6. Although Norris was able to pick up the pace once the road ahead was clear, setting laps between 0.4s-1s quicker than his rival, Verstappen's tyres were already old at this juncture.

The three-lap offset between their final soft compounds was probably the real indicator here as Norris just about grabbed clean air after his stop. But it was close-run.

Sure, Norris shut the gap down to 2.2s by the end of the race, but how much of it was Verstappen managing and how much of it was Norris throwing caution to the wind can account for the gaps seen across the stint. There were points at which Verstappen was faster, perhaps as a result of a couple of laps spent ingesting more tyre life to maintain the gap and ensure there would be no nasty surprises late on.

Norris felt he should have won two weeks previously in Montreal, citing the decision not to pit immediately on the safety car's appearance. But he reckoned that Barcelona was a more frustrating loss, again noting that the McLaren was probably the quickest car across the Spain weekend.

"[Montreal] was more a decision, an incorrect decision or lack of decision-making," he mused. "We were definitely not the quickest car in Montreal. Mercedes was easily the quickest car.

"But today, we were the quickest. We had the best car. I had the best car out there. And I didn't maximise it. The start's down to me, doing what I get told and executing that. And without that, or with a good start, we easily should have won."

Norris believes McLaren is "there or thereabouts" every weekend now

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

"I'm confident every weekend we go into now, the car's performing extremely well," Norris added. "We're always there or thereabouts within a couple of tenths of pole, and that's all we can ask for.

"I think we need to bring something a little bit more just to make our life a bit easier. It's close, and now we have, what, four teams who I think can easily fight for pole positions and fight for wins, potentially.

PLUS: Why it wasn't just Russell's start that cost Norris the Spanish GP victory

"High speed, I think we have a bit to work on, comparing to Red Bull. Red Bull seem definitely a bit higher, better in high speed corners than we are. Potentially we're lacking a touch in that area but the rest of it is strong."

It's probably too premature to say that McLaren is now at the pinnacle, given that it's only won one race this season

It does appear that McLaren's MCL38 is developing nicely into a strong all-rounder that can contend with all situations. The team has conscientiously worked on raising the ceiling at its previous weak spots, while attempting to ensure its stronger aspects remain uncompromised. It's a simple ethos, but it works. Red Bull, meanwhile, has had a soft patch on its underbelly exposed and this is something it desperately wishes to cover up in the coming races.

But it's probably too premature to say that McLaren is now at the pinnacle, given that it's only won one race this season. There's nuance between having the 'quickest' car and having the 'best' package; McLaren might have the former, but Red Bull and Verstappen have an innate ability to draw out wins when the car is not at its best.

Let's revisit that after the summer break, if results start to swing away from the championship leaders on a more consistent basis.

Having the fastest package and the best package are not the same, and it seems Red Bull still has the latter

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images