Could relentless Red Bull domination weaken F1's meritocracy stance?

Red Bull was punished for busting the cost cap in 2021 by having its aerodynamic testing allowance slashed. This could have stunted the team’s in-season development. But it has started 2023 so strongly to massively mitigate this kneecapping: the RB19 doesn’t require aggressive upgrades to stay ahead. As a result, given its current potency and the plan to keep regulations stable until 2026, a whitewash between now and then might well lie in store.

That potential hot streak would be far from unprecedented in Formula 1, which has bounced from one ‘superteam’ to the next. A second spell from Red Bull, to go along with its 2010-13 clean sweep, would arrive hot on the heels of Mercedes snaring eight constructors’ crowns on the trot. But would Red Bull doing similar until 2026 be a different kind of domination?

PLUS: Why the roots of Red Bull's F1 domination go back to its wilderness years

Mercedes had to navigate a bitter team-mate rivalry from 2014-16. The following two years asked Toto Wolff and company to see off a pronounced threat from Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel while taming a “diva” car. Then came a global pandemic before a toxic but blockbuster duel with Red Bull in 2021.

Now, though, Max Verstappen clearly has the performance and psychological measure of Sergio Perez to quash any internal rift. And, bar the first 11 rounds of last season, the opposition has hardly been breathing down Red Bull’s neck. Since Ferrari is bleeding key staff to rivals and Mercedes continues to stumble in this ground-effects era, the team might not face an external threat either for some time.

That prospect poses a serious risk to F1’s popularity. The lockdown-inspired peak of Drive to Survive and one of the great grudge matches between Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have been and gone. If the racing at the front remains predictable and unspectacular for the longer-term, TV audiences will drop. Should bums on sofas and grandstand seats dwindle, sponsors – who are currently queuing around the block – will disperse too.

Since the start of the new rules era, Red Bull has been utterly dominant and the Verstappen vs Hamilton 2021 drama has cooled

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

As such, would Red Bull ever accept having its wings clipped for the greater good, rather than let F1 as a whole decline? When the (Puma) boot was on the other foot in 2015, team boss Christian Horner was lobbying for change, complaining Mercedes’ dominance was hurting the series: “Inevitably, with predictability, people get turned off and it needs a rejig to bring it closer together.”

Funnily enough, he’s much less emphatic about the need to intervene now it’s his squad that would be in the crosshairs. Horner tells GP Racing: “That’s not my job [to decide]. My job is to win and the one thing that we know from this sport is that things will converge. You can already see it starting to happen and the most important thing to have convergence, is to have stability.

"It's not correct [to intervene] because we cannot be seen as part of manipulation" Stefano Domenicali

“Stability of regulations will bring all of the teams much closer together. You can see this is already starting to happen. It’s not going to be another seven years of domination [like with Mercedes].”

If F1 really is living in a bubble economy and that bursts, the low ebb that was 2015 and 2016 – when people were questioning the health of the championship and several teams were on the brink of financial collapse – may seem mild in comparison. At that point, will the FIA and series bosses change their mind on what has been, publicly at least, a hands-off attitude to limiting the Red Bull advantage? F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali says: “It’s not correct [to intervene] because we cannot be seen as part of manipulation.”

Perhaps that admirably meritocratic stance would soften if commercial partners and broadcasters voted with their feet.

As long as the money keeps rolling in, it appears F1 won't be willing to intervene to shake-up one team dominating

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images