Can Red Bull be F1's saviour?

Christian Horner could be forgiven for thinking that Formula 1 has been a bit of a broken record for Red Bull during the turbo hybrid era.

This is yet another season in which many observers have predicted that Horner's team will emerge as the greatest threat to Mercedes. But despite the obvious qualities of Red Bull's young, ambitious driver line-up and technical strength in depth, questions remain about the Renault engine.

While those fundamentals have not changed ahead of the latest campaign, singling out one factor for underperformance can lead a team to complacency and folly. Formula 1 is a constantly changing form of sport that demands continuous evolution - and restless self-examination. It would have been very easy for Red Bull to carry on blaming Renault for its competitive shortfalls, even in the face of evidence that the team itself had authored some of its own troubles, particularly last season.

Instead it has carefully revised many of its behind-the-scenes processes and structures with a view to starting its 2018 F1 campaign in better shape than it has in seasons immediately past.

"You can feel within the team there is an air of ambition and, despite difficulties, the team has never lost its competitive desire and edge," Horner tells Autosport. "It's only a matter of time before it rises again."

While Horner cites 2015's annus horribilis with Renault - during which the partnership nearly dissolved entirely - as the lowest point most recently, last year indubitably ran it close in terms of disappointment, even though the team notched up three wins. The simple fact is that Red Bull failed to capitalise on a new package of technical rules that made aerodynamics a performance differentiator once again; it began the season with a half-baked offering that enabled Ferrari to take on the mantle of being Mercedes' closest competitor.

But Red Bull has learned from what went wrong. And the foundations for the performance step that the team appears to have made with its current RB14 can be found in what it did to address those errors.

Windtunnel-calibration issues relating to the increased dimensions of the car and tyres (factors other teams also fell foul of) contributed to the competitive drift, but there were other elements holding development back. Adrian Newey's work on the Aston Martin Valkyrie hypercar meant he was not as focused on the F1 project as he could have been. Additionally, the team exacerbated the consequences of this disarray by leaving the release of its 2017 design as late as possible, meaning the reality of its underperformance hit home too late. It took it until the Hungarian Grand Prix in July to get its campaign back on track.

These fundamental issues have been addressed through circumstance and a change of direction this year. Newey's work on the Valkyrie project has wound down for now, meaning he is more available to throw his input into F1. But you could argue that the team's dependence on Newey makes it vulnerable, so it has undergone a reshuffle in which chief engineer (performance) Pierre Wache has taken the new role of technical director. This should help give the team better internal structures and a clearer decision-making process that is not so reliant on Newey.

"The hours Newey has put in have been impressive" Christian Horner

"It just maximises the benefit of it [Newey's input] I would say, and helps to coordinate it," says Horner. "Adrian has been very engaged over the winter because he has enjoyed the development strand that they have hit upon. He has enjoyed within this set of regulations. It's offered him some creativity - the hours he has put in have been impressive."

Beyond the staffing changes, Red Bull also altered its approach to car delivery, bringing forward the RB14's release date so it could factor in a shakedown (via a filming day), unlike the brinksmanship of recent years when the paint was barely dry as testing began. Passing its crash tests the first time this year showed that Red Bull's risk management was better, and that it wasn't letting itself get compromised by a blind pursuit of performance. Here, it seems, was a team willing to accept that it might have been too aggressive in chasing marginal gains.

"I think it was just a question of philosophy," says Horner. "It served us very well in previous years, particularly in the V8 era, but now with the limitation of track running that you have, and the reliability that is required, it's crucial to be out there knocking 100 laps from day one."

Despite an early hiccup with the RB14 - Daniel Ricciardo had a minor off during that wet filming day at Silverstone - Red Bull's new approach appears to have paid off. It's customary for teams and drivers to be non-committal on the record during testing, but the tone of the comments from both Ricciardo and Max Verstappen at Barcelona suggested they felt bullish about the car's prospects, and Horner too is pretty content with where things are at based on GPS data from testing.

"I think it's difficult to draw too many conclusions, but I don't think we give anything away in any of the corners we looked at in Barcelona," he says. "And if you went out and had a look on the circuit it was evident that the car looks well poised. It's a well-balanced car, and you can see it is instilling confidence in the drivers. Going into Melbourne we feel as well prepared as we have ever been - and certainly within the V6 era. And I think the RB14 is the basis of a very good chassis.

"There is a real optimism about this car. It responds well. It's giving the drivers good feedback and it's a great starting point as we go into the season. We know where our deficiencies are to our opponents, and we just have to compensate in other areas."

That which he alludes to in his final sentence may again prove to be the defining factor in Red Bull's season. Over the course of 21 races the team's chances of stringing together a title challenge against the sheer maturity of the Mercedes package depend on Renault - in a season in which drivers will only have access to three rather than four power units before incurring penalties. Although it's hard to be definitive at this stage about how well the manufacturers have met the durability challenge, the indications are that Renault and Ferrari have at least maintained their levels of performance from 2017, while Mercedes has unlocked more horsepower. That means Red Bull must be at the top of its chassis game.

Is the RB14 good enough for it to overcome any potential power deficit? Horner thinks so for the occasional race, but he is sceptical about being able to do that everywhere.

"Over a season I don't think so," he says. "But there will be some circuits where we will be stronger than others, and our focus is on dealing with what we can control, maximising our own performance, our own reliability, and grabbing opportunities when they present themselves."

The engine situation could be much more critical this year though, since the cars will be heavier on account of the halo, and grippier on account of tyre and aerodynamic development. That potentially means more time on the throttle and heavier fuel consumption.

The benefits Mercedes has - more power, qualifying engine modes and better fuel efficiency - add up a triple whammy that is going to be hard to overcome. If Red Bull finds itself unable to get on the front row on Saturday, then it's going to be tough pulling things back on Sunday.

"Of course if they have 0.3-0.4 seconds up their sleeve in qualifying, that becomes extremely difficult to compete with - and it compromises you on a Sunday," adds Horner. "So we've just got to do the best we can. We have always been sharp and aggressive with race strategy and, as I say, try to make the most of opportunities that present themselves."

Red Bull's engine situation could be much more critical this year

The fuel-consumption issue is a factor even at tracks where fuel saving is not necessary. Mercedes' efficiency advantage means that at venues where fuel management is not an issue for its rivals, it can underfill. Red Bull puts that figure at 10-15kg for some circuits.

"For every 10kg less that you carry, it's 0.35s per lap," says Horner. "So if you add that up over 50-70 laps, it is a significant amount. It's something that we have to manage. If you can get into a clear-air situation, it's far easier to control and dictate a race from the front than it is from an attacking position. But then, our drivers' ability on the first laps is what we are going to be depending on as well. Starts, first laps, and drivers getting their elbows out."

This will be the fifth year in which Red Bull has needed Renault to up its game in order to compete with Mercedes consistently. It's been a challenging journey for both; a partnership that won four consecutive world championships together in the V8 era has come close to divorce on more than one occasion - and that may yet come to pass.

They have remained together so far, but what's different this season is that for the first time since Red Bull emerged as a winning force in F1, it will have a clear choice of engines for the following season, as it keeps a watching brief on Honda's progress with Toro Rosso. While six months ago many would have scoffed at a scenario in which Red Bull could be forced to take Honda engines in 2019, the situation is very different now.

Honda's reliability in pre-season testing stood in stark contrast to the serial breakdowns of early 2017. Power, too, is thought to be better than before - perhaps just 15bhp shy of Renault. The development path the two companies take in the coming months will have consequences.

"The most important thing for us is having the most competitive package going forward," says Horner about the opportunity that may be about to present itself. "We want to be in a position to continue to close the gap to the teams ahead and get onto the front foot. Obviously we are in a position for the first time in probably 10 years where we have a choice moving forwards. And that is a position that we have not been in for a long, long time. There has either been a veto or a block or a non-desire from supplier to supply.

"I think they [Honda] have made very good ground over the winter. We have a front-row seat to see how that product is developing and performing with Toro Rosso. And it will all come down to performance. We want the most performant engine in the back of the car."

Since engine performance is such a dominant factor in this rules cycle, Horner is in no doubt about how important it is for his team to get that final box ticked - and to change Red Bull's narrative in the hybrid era.

"I think if there was an equivalence of power then we would have been right there," he says. "We could have added to those four world titles already - and I think that is our opponents' biggest fear."

But despite the ongoing frustrations of its engine situation, Red Bull is not going to bide its time until it can get even in the horsepower stakes. F1 never stands still, and what may be true of performance from testing may not necessarily be the case in Australia. There is talk of a major Red Bull update coming for Melbourne, something that left Lewis Hamilton particularly wary about Mercedes' own chances.

"Lewis is trying to move the spotlight away from Mercedes" Christian Horner

"Lewis is showing his experience and he is a wily character," smiles Horner. "It's obvious that he is trying to move the spotlight away from Mercedes. But no doubt about it, Mercedes go into the first race as very much the favourites. They are the reigning champions of four years. It's total domination and it looks like they have a pretty decent car.

"How we will fare compared with that? I don't know. But we will never give up. We are hardened competitors, and there is a determination that runs through this entire team in terms of wanting to get back into a winning position - and a consistent winning position."