Analysis: Schumacher Must Wait for the Inevitable

Michael Schumacher has every right to feel aggrieved, even as he enjoys an unbelievable season.

Ferrari's Formula One World Champion has won seven out of eight races, with another victory likely this weekend. The question now is when, not whether, he will win the title.

Two years ago the answer would have been very soon. But not any more.

After Schumacher won the 2002 title in France in July with six races to spare, Formula One's leaders vowed never again would a driver be allowed to kill off a championship so spectacularly.

The outcome was a revised 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system that rewards consistency and led to Schumacher fighting for his sixth crown right to the end of 2003 despite six wins to one for McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen.

Some thought it would have been unfair then had Raikkonen won, despite it being the most exciting season in ages, but this year there is the mathematical danger of a complete travesty.

Schumacher has already won more races than in the whole of last season and yet he is still only 16 points ahead of Ferrari teammate Rubens Barrichello - who has so far won nothing while finishing off the podium twice.

In theory Schumacher could win 13 of the 18 races - more than any driver ever before in one season - and yet still end up losing to a man with no victories.

With 13 wins and five retirements, admittedly a highly improbable scenario for the super-reliable driver, he would have 130 points. But if Barrichello plugged away and finished second in every race from now on, he would end up with 134.

Scant Suspense

Under the previous 10-6-4-3-2-1 format, Schumacher's success would have counted for much more. In fact Barrichello would be already 32 points behind. Some might say that is the price of having a championship that does not end before the European summer.

Historians could also point out that the situation is not new for Formula One, with Briton Mike Hawthorn winning the 1958 title despite having just one win to compatriot Stirling Moss's four that year.

Yet this year there is no real suspense, little added excitement to be gained by stringing out Schumacher's inevitable championship. Unless he is sidelined by some unforeseen drama, the title race is all over bar the shouting.

Records are also not what they were.

Germany's Timo Glock, the 52nd driver to score a point on his debut in Canada last weekend after Williams and Toyota had their drivers disqualified, finished 11th originally and seventh in the revised results.

Neither position would have earned him anything in 2002, when Australian Mark Webber was the last to score on his debut with a fifth place for Minardi.

Webber Nostalgic

Webber, now with Jaguar, is nostalgic for the old days while being divided on the merits of the current system which does at least allow small teams to score occasional points.

"I liked it when it was only down to six to be honest because that was how it was for the last 1,000 years and I don't know why we should have changed it just to give other people more of a chance," he said.

"To finish in the top eight now I'd say is actually quite similar to finishing in the top six in years gone by, it's still quite tough," said Webber. "But I'm just a bit old fashioned I suppose when it comes to all that sort of stuff.

"The problem is Michael. That's why it's like that. It was set up really to keep it (the championship) alive for longer because he buried it quite early a few years ago. It's like hanging him up slowly, slowly and every now and then someone gets to have a nibble at him again.

"But if you can win it by Magny Cours, which might be possible under the old system, or Silverstone then it's not good for the sport. It was fine how it was but I've been with teams like Minardi and the distribution of points is crucial as well. So it's a difficult one."

The best solution, of course, would be for the other teams to get their act together and stop Schumacher from winning everything. But that looks like being even further away than the German's seventh title.