Analysis: Compelling Case for Schumacher Win in Spain

Ferrari's Michael Schumacher is wary of sounding over-confident but Sunday's Spanish Formula One Grand Prix has his name written all over it.

The four times World Champion was gifted victory at the Circuit de Catalunya last year, has qualified on pole there for the past two seasons and old rival Mika Hakkinen is on a sabbatical year.

Throw in the facts that the German has won three out of four races this season and that his dominant F2002 looked very quick in Barcelona last month, and the case becomes compelling.

Indeed, it was the new car's performance in testing at the circuit that convinced Ferrari to let Schumacher drive it at the Brazilian Grand Prix, a race he won, rather than waiting for the first European outing at Imola.

This year Schumacher arrives in Spain with a 14-point advantage over his brother and Williams driver Ralf, having scored eight points more than he had by this stage in what was a record-breaking season last year.

"The tests (in March) showed that we can be very competitive in Spain, we should be strong there too," Schumacher said after the San Marino Grand Prix. "But it is never easy to make a prediction because, for whatever reason, sometimes the opposite happens."

It certainly did last year, when Hakkinen was leading comfortably and heading for his fourth Spanish GP success in a row until his McLaren's clutch exploded with five corners remaining and his hopes literally went up in smoke.

Dull Day

Despite the fact that David Coulthard stalled his McLaren on the formation lap and then fought from last to fifth, last year's race was shaping up as a dull affair until disaster struck his Finnish teammate.

After a soporific race at Imola, with Sauber's young Brazilian Felipe Massa earning extravagant praise for the sole real overtaking manoeuvre, Formula One fans will want to be spared more pain in Spain.

Ralf and Colombian teammate Juan Pablo Montoya, who took his first Formula One points in Barcelona last year and has scored in every race this season, will carry their hopes.

Ralf and older brother Michael banged wheels in a duel at the circuit in 2000 and it is to be hoped that they get close enough again to have a real battle at an official test venue that holds no surprises for anyone.

Coulthard, currently trailing Renault's Jenson Button, has never won in Spain but he has to produce something special soon or risk fading off the Championship radar. But much will depend on the Michelin tyres used by both Williams and McLaren, with the French manufacturer under pressure to come up with something to counter Ferrari's domination with Bridgestone.

"We noticed in Brazil that Ferrari's new F2002 had great potential," said Michelin motorsport director Pierre Dupasquier, whose company have tested extensively in Barcelona and are bringing two new compounds to Spain.

"But we didn't believe (technical director) Ross Brawn when he predicted it would be one and a half seconds per lap faster than the previous car. It turns out he was right.

"In Barcelona, either the performance gap will be reduced and all the hard work we have done will help us take the battle to Ferrari or the margin of superiority will remain unchanged and we will have to take an even harder look at what we're doing," said the Frenchman.

Further down the grid, the Honda-powered Jordan and British American Racing teams will be looking with an increasing sense of desperation for their first points of the season.

Pedro de la Rosa, the only Spaniard in the race who made his Jaguar debut at the circuit last year, will be keen to avoid a repeat of Imola where he started last on the grid after Minardi's Malaysian Alex Yoong failed to qualify.