Why Bottas needs to eat more porridge

"There comes a time," argued Richard Nixon in a famous phone call to then-US Presidential candidate Dwight Eisenhower, "when you've either got to s*** or get off the pot." Differing circumstances aside, for Valtteri Bottas that time is swiftly approaching.

Long contract extensions for Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc at Red Bull and Ferrari respectively have inked in the identities of those teams' lead drivers for the foreseeable future. Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton, having "left each other in peace" over the winter according to team boss Toto Wolff, are about to begin their protracted dance towards agreeing a new contract for 2021 and beyond. They are, as Wolff also said, "the obvious pairing going forward".

Assuming Hamilton is a given at Mercedes for at least 2021, where does that leave Bottas? Needing to prove himself as the best number two available, that's what.

Last year Bottas came rampaging out of the blocks with victory in the season opener. His jokey attribution of his new-found pace to eating porridge for breakfast on race day became an instant internet hit - such stuff as memes are made on, as Shakespeare might have put it. But all the oat-based comestibles in the world couldn't prevent him gradually shipping positions and points to his team-mate and other rivals as the season progressed. The promise of offering a genuine title threat to Hamilton evaporated and, come Singapore - earlier than ever before - Bottas had to field that dreaded phrase over the radio: "Valtteri, it's James..."

Like Hamilton, Bottas is also coming to the end of his contract with Mercedes. But the prospects of him securing a renewal are more nuanced. While his selfless devotion to the team's cause and his unwillingness to resort to 'dirty tricks' to put one over on Hamilton are weighty presences in the merit column, he's going to have to find more speed and consistency if he wants to hold onto his seat beyond the end of this season.

For Bottas's place at Mercedes to be genuinely imperilled, the team needs a replacement it considers to be better. Who might that be?

While it's impossible to reach firm conclusions about relative performance based on testing, the state of play at the end of last season was that Mercedes no longer had the most powerful engine and perhaps not even the fastest car.

Given stability in the rules, that means a much more tightly contested battle for race wins is in prospect and Bottas can no longer afford the odd off-weekend where he qualifies well but drifts backwards anonymously during the race. Every point may count - yes, even the much-derided solo ones for fastest race laps.

But for Bottas's place at Mercedes to be genuinely imperilled, the team needs a replacement it considers to be better. Who might that be? Probably not Esteban Ocon, a Mercedes-backed talent now on long-term loan to Renault and with a tendency to have fractious relationships with team-mates.

Daniel Ricciardo, out of contract at Renault this season, is a possibility, albeit a remote one. The way the cards have fallen for him, the only lead-driver roles open to him will be at midfield teams (unless Renault undergoes a radical turnaround and he opts to stay there). Might he find himself at that point in his career where he's forced to set aside his championship ambitions and accept a subsidiary role in order to stay in the game?

George Russell might impress enough at Williams this season to warrant a promotion, and he remains the strongest candidate. Or does he? Mercedes has just promoted Stoffel Vandoorne to a reserve driver role; yes, he fell out of favour at McLaren a couple of years ago, but he's staying race-sharp in Formula E and Merc insiders say he's among the finest simulator drivers they've ever had. Don't rule him out...