Chandhok: Tackling the big questions of Formula 1 2020

In the cover feature of last week's Autosport magazine, Karun Chandhok shared his insights from the Formula 1 pitlane into the big themes of the 2020 season.

He rates Lewis Hamilton's prospects of equalling Michael Schumacher's tally of seven world drivers titles, considers which drivers will be under the most pressure this year, whether Williams can drag itself off the back of the grid and more.

Can Ferrari finally beat Mercedes?

In 2017 Sebastian Vettel could have stolen the title from Lewis Hamilton. In 2018 Vettel should have won the title. In 2019 they could have been a lot closer in the points table than they ultimately were. On the whole, it's fair to say that over the past three seasons the red camp hasn't fulfilled its potential to the extent that the team in silver has.

That's not my opinion - that's just fact.

The team has the money, the people, the facilities and the drivers to fight against Mercedes and therefore the answer to the question is always: yes, it can. But will it? Recent history shows that this is a different matter.

Despite all the rumours and accusations in the paddock, the Ferrari power advantage in qualifying seemed to remain a mystery to the other engine suppliers. Last season the Mercedes was probably the faster race car at 70% of the tracks, and the only way a slower car is going to win the title is by executing an error-free season with stellar performances and strategic brilliance.

The problem for Ferrari is that Hamilton makes very few errors, is an excellent qualifier and Mercedes doesn't often get it wrong strategically. The other issue last year was that the Ferrari seemed harder on its tyres than the Mercedes, probably as a result of having a bit less downforce.

This meant that, even if Vettel and Charles Leclerc could qualify well, they couldn't necessarily beat the Mercs on Sunday, as races like the Mexican Grand Prix showed. Leclerc will be better in his second season at the team. From June's French GP onwards he was brilliant, so expect more of the same.

Towards the end of the season Vettel showed in races such as Singapore, Russia and Japan that once the updated car was to his liking, he was able to unleash his inherent speed. One thing to consider is that with stable rules for 2020 and a big change coming for 2021, the answer of who comes out on top may well rely on which of the teams has committed more resources to the short term rather than holding back a bit with an eye on the future.

Will Lewis Hamilton surpass Michael Schumacher's wins record?

Based on recent form, you'd be brave to bet against Lewis Hamilton getting the eight wins to take the record this season, especially with an extra race. All of the teams are treating this season as a bit of a stopgap to the big rules shake-up in 2021, so we can't really expect a big change in the order. Having said that, we don't really need a massive shift to suddenly have six drivers in contention every weekend.

Sure, he may not enjoy testing or occasionally sound bored in a Friday practice session, but Hamilton delivers when it matters in qualifying and the race

On his day Valtteri Bottas is able to beat Hamilton on pace. Charles Leclerc should have ended the year only 18 points behind without all the mistakes made by him and the team, and Max Verstappen and Red Bull were strong enough to be a genuine threat at quite a few races in 2019 from the Canadian GP in June.

I do get bored by all the comments from people saying, 'You're all biased towards Lewis', but the reality is the guy has been sensational from the first race he did back in 2007. He's won 50% of the championships he's taken part in and probably should have won two more (2007 and 2016), so you can't help but admire and appreciate greatness.

Despite all those years living out of a suitcase (albeit an expensive designer one), the reigning world champion has lost none of his motivation. Sure, he may not enjoy testing or occasionally sound bored in a Friday practice session, but he delivers when it matters in qualifying and the race.

His work ethic with the engineers has been praised by everyone at Mercedes and credit must be given to Toto Wolff, as well as Hamilton's manager Marc Hynes, for managing him in a way that brings out the best in him.

Which drivers are under the most pressure?

I think it's a big year for Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas and Alex Albon. Ferrari has signed Charles Leclerc until 2024, indicating that he's their long-term prospect. The feeling in the paddock is that Vettel may not go on for that long.

He is a very fast racing driver and still has a lot to offer the team in terms of his experience and technical knowledge. When the car is working for him, he can be devastatingly fast, but the guy in the other car is clearly someone special.

On paper, I still think that Ferrari has the best potential driver pairing if they don't both make errors, and if they push each other hard but without letting the rivalry boil over. Bottas has been handed a vote of confidence by Toto Wolff, who passed on the opportunity to replace him with Esteban Ocon.

He may hate hearing this, but the apolitical Finn is a perfect number two for the team. He wins the races when Lewis Hamilton can't, he doesn't ruffle any feathers or play games, and he racks up the points well enough to secure the constructors' title for the team.

But should Lewis decide to leave Formula 1 in a couple of years, will the team count on Valtteri to be their number one? He would like them to and 2020 is a chance for him to once again try to prove why.

Albon had a whirlwind 12-month period going from giving up on his F1 dream to ending up in one of the best seats on the grid, via a stint at Toro Rosso. The poor guy must have been mentally and emotionally exhausted by the end of the year, but this season it's a clean sheet and he won't be cut any slack.

The team doesn't need him to beat Max Verstappen, but it needs him to be quick enough so that when opportunities to win are presented to their number-one driver, such as at the Hungarian GP last year, the other car is close enough to stop rivals using alternative strategies to beat Verstappen.

That will be the big task for Albon this year.

Will Red Bull-Honda be in the championship fight?

Max Verstappen has already shown that, if he has a car fast enough to challenge for the title, he's ready for it. The speed and consistency he's shown in the past 18 months have been very impressive.

Like Ayrton Senna, Nigel Mansell or Lewis Hamilton, you always watch Verstappen's race knowing that something is going to happen. He's not going to just drive around - there will always be some moments of dramatic brilliance or controversy.

Red Bull was perhaps more competitive last year than it was expecting, with three wins, and strong pace in Hungary and Mexico too. But being in the fight for wins at 25% of the races isn't going to make you a title contender and Red Bull knows that.

The chassis didn't really deliver until the Austrian GP in June, when the front-wing upgrade seemed to unlock the potential of the RB15. Honda has made very good progress and by the end of the season, as a package, it was not far from the Mercedes.

The team has good resources, as well as key people such as Adrian Newey, Rob Marshall, Pierre Wache, Paul Monaghan and Jonathan Wheatley from the years of domination from 2010 to 2013. I would be surprised if the Red Bull-Honda package isn't closer to being a title contender than in 2019.

What does Renault have to do to get back on track?

Last season was a bit of a wake-up call for Renault. The power-unit side in Viry has clearly made steps forward in terms of performance, as Renault's 2019 pace at power-sensitive venues such as Montreal, Spa and Monza showed. Reliability across the works cars and the McLaren customers was still not as good as Renault would have liked.

Fry and de Beer have come in too late to have a real influence on the 2020 car, but it's an important move with the view towards the parallel design programme for next year

But the bigger concern for the works team was that McLaren was able to comprehensively outscore it last year with the same power unit, despite having been miles behind in 2018.

As a factory team, finishing behind your customer is never going to go down well with the paymasters (although, let's be honest, the extraordinary Carlos Ghosn saga has probably kept them busy over the winter).

Cyril Abiteboul has recognised that things need to be shaken up, and the departing Nick Chester has been replaced by Pat Fry and Dirk de Beer. Fry played a large part in McLaren's recent turnaround, while de Beer was well respected at Enstone and Ferrari before a difficult stint at Williams.

Both of these new signings have come in too late to have a real influence on the 2020 car, but it's an important move with the view towards the parallel design programme for next year.

Aero and downforce is still pivotal in F1 but so is consistency when you're talking about a championship position. The team still has very good, experienced people running the trackside operation, such as Ciaron Pilbeam and Mark Slade, who are calm, sensible operators and exactly what it needs.

The expanded calendar has a wide range of tracks now and, as a major manufacturer team, Renault needs to at least aim to have both cars into Q3 every time on every type of track layout. Ironically with the tyre rules being what they are, starting between 11th and 13th was often better than being eighth or ninth, but my point is that they need to find a sweet spot in the car set-up and aero configuration that allows them to get a consistent and solid baseline.

This seemed to be missing last year and you would often hear of a dozen or more front wings being taken to races in an effort to optimise the balance. As a minimum the works team should be aiming to reclaim fourth place this year and get closer to the top three teams.

While of course 2021 offers a better chance of a major reset, it could also use the stability of the 2020 rules to bridge the gap to the front of the pack as the top teams will be levelling off in terms of their development potential.

How can McLaren build on its 2019 success and what would constitute another good season for the team?

McLaren was the most improved team of 2019, and the whole squad has a very upbeat and buoyant atmosphere about it now. Let's remember that there were times in 2018 when Fernando Alonso was qualifying behind Lance Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin. No disrespect to either of those drivers, but it showed that the McLaren was at times the slowest car in 2018 and therefore makes the team's recovery last year all the more impressive.

With Andreas Seidl at the helm, Zak Brown doing what he does best and roping in new sponsors, James Key now fully with his feet under the desk, a new windtunnel coming, the Mercedes power-unit deal a year away and an exciting young driver line-up, there's plenty of cause for optimism over McLaren's future.

Early on in 2019, McLaren had a poor weekend at the Chinese GP, but after that it showed a level of consistency that was much needed in a team looking to stabilise following a tumultuous few years. It had a car in Q3 on 29 out of 42 occasions (compared to 20 for Renault) and was also good at making the right strategy calls and managing the tyres.

If the team can maintain fourth place in the constructors' championship but reduce the gap to the front, that would be a very good and realistic achievement.

I don't expect McLaren to close the entire chasm to the top three, but it would be interesting to see if it can bring that deficit down to the point where it is able to occasionally get a car on the third row of the grid on merit. That would be a good step forward for the team and probably keep it ahead of the works Renault squad.

Norris was a breath of fresh air in the paddock and did a very good job in his rookie season

Last year was also something of a breakout season for Carlos Sainz. He seemed to relish his role as the senior driver and de facto team leader. In the first half of the season Lando Norris seemed to have the legs on him in qualifying, but on Sundays Sainz was generally ahead.

He's a very intelligent driver - like his dad - and is able to understand and execute a strategy very well. He also seemed to stay out of trouble on the opening laps and generally gain places that would set him up for the rest of the race.

Norris was a breath of fresh air in the paddock and did a very good job in his rookie season. He would have learned an awful lot last year, and 2020 is his chance to build on that. Behind the happy, jokey, relaxed kid, there's a very quick racing driver.

But there's no hiding from the fact that his team-mate scored 96 points to his 49, despite the Brit behind ahead on the qualifying head-to-head score. Norris will be aiming to raise his Sunday game this year.

How will Esteban Ocon stack up against Daniel Ricciardo?

I thought Daniel Ricciardo had a very good season in 2019. I didn't expect him to beat Nico Hulkenberg as convincingly as he did, but some of the races he drove, such as the British, US and Japanese GPs, showed that he was worth every penny of those zillions that Renault is supposedly paying him. The new challenge against Esteban Ocon will be one of the best battles of the season.

The Frenchman is very talented and isn't afraid to get his elbows out in combat, even with his team-mate. Ricciardo has had his fair share of tough team-mates, including Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen, so he will be mentally prepared for it.

Physically, Ocon may resemble a giraffe who appears to eat nothing but leaves, but mentally he's like a tenacious and scrappy little terrier. It would have been easy for him to be disheartened by a year away from racing but, from what everyone at Mercedes said, his work ethic and willingness to learn and get back to a race seat was impressive.

This battle is going to be brilliant to watch and Renault certainly has not given itself any excuses in the cockpit...

Could the chasm between the front and midfield teams shrink?

I think that the gap in 2020 could close, but it all depends on how much the midfield teams can afford to invest in the 2020 car and have the parallel programme with the 2021 package. McLaren was the fourth fastest team last year and its qualifying average across the season was 1.5% away from Mercedes'.

The third best team - Red Bull - was 0.5% away, so the gap back to McLaren is still significant. As a reference, the ninth best team (Racing Point) was only 2.2% away from Mercedes, so the gap between fourth and ninth is much smaller than third and fourth, showing just what a clear distinction there is between the top three teams and the rest.

In theory, the hunt for gains in performance offer a diminishing return and, therefore, with stable rules, we should expect the midfield to find more than the top teams in 2020. But I then expect the gap to widen in 2021, when the bigger and better-funded operations can hit the ground running.

What can we expect from George Russell and Williams?

George Russell did a very good job in difficult circumstances last year. The car was not only late but also uncompetitive. Despite seeing his Formula 2 rivals Lando Norris and Alex Albon move up the grid, he kept his head together and did the only thing he could, which was to trounce his team-mate.

The only problem is that we don't really know how good the Robert Kubica version 2.0 was and therefore it's hard to gauge Russell's ultimate pace.

Williams has made some big changes to its manufacturing processes and is confident of getting the car on the ground in time for the first test. The 2018 season was a poor one for the team but, for a variety of reasons, the 2019 car seemed to take it further away from the pack. It was obviously lacking downforce but it also seemed to be a very draggy car, which is why arguably its best qualifying came at the Hungaroring.

Williams has the biggest mountain to climb but it can take some inspiration from McLaren's season last year. With some fundamental philosophical changes to the car design and the aero, you can bring yourself back into a zone of stability and respectability.

It's a big year for the team as you can afford to be at the back for a season or two, but I imagine a public company spending more than £100million every year to finish last isn't going to be accepted by sponsors or shareholders for too long.

What do we think of the extra races in Holland and Vietnam?

I'm very excited for the two 'new' races, but for very different reasons. Zandvoort (below) has a lot of history and, as a track to drive around on your own, it's one of my favourites. I really loved racing there in the past and the fast, flowing corners are really going to be fun for the drivers.

The atmosphere with the passionate Max Verstappen fans is going to be off the charts and, based on the past, you would actually bet on the Red Bull being very competitive on that sort of track layout.

Having Vietnam early in the season will be interesting as the teams will still be in the phase of properly learning about their cars

Overtaking will be a problem at Zandvoort, I think. Racing in other categories around there has been pretty processional, but the FIA has tried to help this by introducing a highly banked final corner (below) and therefore a long DRS zone to aid overtaking into the first corner. Fingers crossed this works but, either way, it should be a good event.

Judging by what I've seen of the drawings and simulations, Vietnam could be the opposite. There are some long straights, like we've seen in Baku, as well as some long corners, which will be a real challenge for the drivers, cars and tyres. Baku has thrown up some great races and overtaking in the past three years and hopefully we'll get the same in Vietnam.

Having the race early in the season will be interesting as the teams will still be in the phase of properly learning about their cars, which could throw up a few anomalies too.