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The pre-Christmas pressure on Bottas and Vettel

With Formula 1 firmly in its off-season, the drivers will have turned their attention to the new year and a new campaign. In his final Fifth Column, Nigel Roebuck explains why two racers in particular may be unnerved by the end of the season just gone

"What," said Martin Brundle, "are the two most evocative Mercedes-engined cars on the grid?"

A trick question, I supposed, and I was right.

"I'll tell you - the safety car and the medical car! If EV and EQ and all that are so important in hybrids, why do we have a double-supercharged V8 at the front and back of the grid? On Ferrari's website the cars are categorised not by spyder, coupe or whatever, but by V12 and V8. Which company in Formula 1 sells a 1.6-litre engine? I suppose, to be fair, Renault probably do, and maybe Honda - but all Mercedes' new engines are straight-sixes! My point is, in Formula 1 what are we selling - and to whom? If it fails down the road, the beginning of the failure was these bloody hybrid engines..."

For years Brundle and I have met for lunch in December to talk through the season past and the one to come. The politics we got on to later, by which time a quantity of Amarone had gone down; as usual, the first topic was drivers and teams, and inevitably we started with Hamilton and Vettel. This season was indisputably the best of Lewis's career to date.

"No doubt about it," said Martin. "I thought his drive at Spa was a bit scrappy, but that was the only one. What made this year different was that, for the first time, Lewis went through it without any of those weekends when he's mysteriously off his game. As well as that, Mercedes seem to gather pace - they don't get fragile towards the end of the season, with their three motors, and so on. If they carry on like this, in a couple of years we could be looking at Lewis's seventh championship. On stamina no-one can touch Mercedes."

Right enough. In the five years of the hybrid era, Hamilton has won more than half the races. "Yes," Brundle grinned, "and always in front of his favourite fans!"

All the pieces were in place for Lewis this year: not only did Ferrari falter, as we have come to expect, but Bottas, less strong than in 2017, offered little of the opposition he faced from Nico Rosberg. No wonder he calls Valtteri the best team-mate he has ever had: nice guy, apolitical...

"Yes - and he moves out of the way when he's told to! I wasn't surprised Valtteri was upset at being called 'Lewis's wing man' by Toto [Wolff] - he should have won in Shanghai, Baku, and also Sochi, where he was ordered to let Lewis by. That was tough - especially when you look at the points tally, and see it was wholly unnecessary. I think Mercedes buried their driver that day. Later Lewis said no, he wouldn't want to pay Valtteri back - he wouldn't want a soft victory, anyway, but what about his in Sochi!

"I think Bottas is psychologically screwed. He has to tolerate Hamilton's speed, confidence... everyone wanting to talk to him and not you... I saw his comment the other day, 'Next year I've got to drive every race as if it were my last', and he's right - he needs to start dominating race weekends. Esteban Ocon is now parked at Mercedes as reserve driver, and everyone's assuming he'll be in the car in 2020..."

"By his own standards, the second half of Vettel's season was appalling, and worst of all was that lunge on Verstappen at Suzuka" Martin Brundle

If Hamilton was at his best this season, his major rival was not. Vettel and Ferrari began superbly, but the momentum was not sustained: although frequently the fastest of the weekend, the car lost pace here and there, and Sebastian himself made too many mistakes, as - operationally - did his team.

"It's difficult to know what to say," said Brundle. "Either Seb had some kind of distraction this year - and you hear certain things - or he's not what he was. Unless he has a dominant car, his judgement in wheel-to-wheel combat has gone, and that's critical. The minute - under no pressure - he hit the barrier at Hockenheim, and made that anguished radio call, the wheels started to come off, didn't they?

"Thinking back to the Red Bull era, when Seb won his four championships, both Lewis and Fernando Alonso were quite dismissive of him, saying, well, he had the best car - which is a bit of a laugh when you think what Lewis has had in the past five years!

"It would be foolish to write Vettel off, but... although I hate saying this about a great racing driver, I do think he might be past his best. If you put him out front, in probably the fastest car, he'll win, and you can't say that about a lot of them, but wheel-to-wheel I sometimes think, 'What are you doing?'

"Monza was a case in point - he was angry from Saturday on, when Ferrari got it the wrong way round in qualifying, so that Raikkonen got the tow from him, which gave him pole. Then on Sunday he thought he was going to get a magic carpet ride..."

Not so. Unfathomably, Maurizio Arrivabene chose the night before the Italian Grand Prix to inform Kimi that he was out for 2019, and although he had seen it coming, it was not calculated to bring out his usual selflessness the following day.

"First of all," Martin said, "it was nuts of Ferrari not to slipstream Seb onto pole position - that really was the finish of their championship campaign. Remember his terse response on the radio? 'We'll talk about it later...'

"As for giving Kimi the bad news, it really might have been a good idea to save it for Monday. Seb expected to be let through at the first corner, and when he wasn't he danced around in anger until the chicane - where he screwed up and spun after the touch with Hamilton.

"By his own standards, the second half of his season was appalling, and worst of all was that lunge on Verstappen at Suzuka. OK, he'd passed backmarkers at that corner, but they were compliant - there was no way Max could afford, from a reputation point of view, to give way. All Seb had to do was wait for the next straight."

Unquestionably the death of Sergio Marchionne in July had a destabilising effect on Ferrari, for the strong man was gone, and in his absence the simmering discord between Arrivabene and technical director Mattia Binotto erupted.

"Well, the word was that Marchionne was going to bin Arrivabene, and install Binotto as team principal, wasn't it? Whatever, Ferrari have to be careful not to step on their own tail next year - and Leclerc's arrival is only going to add to that. Marchionne had said Charles should be in the team in 2019, but once he was gone they tried really hard to unravel the move, and keep Kimi - which was what Seb wanted, of course.

"In the end, Leclerc - with, let's say, a certain amount of political momentum - got the drive, and it was the right move: there's no point in a junior programme if you don't use it. Ferrari politics will be critical, because Charles is going to challenge Seb, and if the year with Ricciardo at Red Bull is anything to go by, he might not respond well to that. In Abu Dhabi, when Charles breezed past Kimi, and into Seb's mirrors, it must have crossed his mind, 'He's on my tail - in a Sauber...'

"From what we've seen of Leclerc, I reckon he'll cope with it all. Think of that qualifying lap in Interlagos, when he opted to stay out in the spitting rain - 21 years old, with the confidence to take matters into his own hands! I really like the kid, and he seems to have it all."

Off track Verstappen may have his father's inherent stroppiness, but on it his talent is light years clear

At one stage it looked as though Ricciardo might go to Ferrari, but although they talked, nothing came of it, and eventually Daniel - clearly set on finding an alternative to Red Bull - committed to Renault, a decision most found incomprehensible.

That said, as Webber found in his Red Bull days, once the other driver is patently 'the anointed one', life becomes unsettling. In Mark's case it was Vettel, in Danny's Verstappen, and the clearest evidence came in Baku, where Max several times thwarted his faster team-mate before eventually taking him - and himself - out in a stupid accident.

Webber had a similar experience with Vettel in Istanbul, and on both occasions Messrs Marko and Horner declined to lay blame where it was due. If Ricciardo had any doubts about his status in the team, he had none after Baku - this despite the fact that his season had begun superbly while Verstappen screwed up time after time.

"Danny's been unbelievably unlucky this year," said Brundle. "There's always a reason for everything, and if a team's focused on one driver... I think Helmut and Christian are like Ron Dennis - they can only love one driver at a time. Remember Ron in 2007, with Lewis and Fernando...

"To me Danny's decision to leave for Renault was emotional, not rational. He's more then good enough to take a fight to Max. That drive at Monaco was brilliant - all those problems to manage, and still no one got near him.

"I just hope his move isn't an Alonso decision! Hamilton went to Mercedes after Ross Brawn had shown him the blueprint of the hybrid engine, and explained why it was going to dominate the next phase of F1: that's one thing, but I can't imagine Renault could have shown Danny anything that was going to be career-changing like the Merc engine. If they want to join the top three, they've got to find a lap a race - and aiming at moving goalposts, too, because Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull aren't going to stand still. If Renault can halve that gap, they'll have done bloody well."

In the meantime Verstappen charges on, and if the Honda should disappoint in 2019, one trusts he won't heap criticism on the company, as Alonso did - and as Max himself has endlessly done with Renault.

The hope is that Honda will enable Red Bull - without equal in the downforce stakes - to compete more strongly with Mercedes and Ferrari in a straight line, and many see Verstappen as Hamilton's major rival in 2019. Off track he may have his father's inherent stroppiness, but on it his talent is light years clear.

"Right on both counts," said Brundle. "Max doesn't like admitting he's in the wrong, but then think of Senna - in his mind he was never wrong about anything, including deliberately crashing Prost at Suzuka! Certainly Max shouldn't be threatening to headbutt journalists, and so on, but I like him - he's got the irreverence I wish I'd had - and I love his touch in a car.

"Undeniably there are still times when he shows a lack of maturity, like when he tripped over Ocon in Brazil. If that had been for position, we'd have said, 'racing incident', but it wasn't. No, you don't throw it up the inside of the leader when he's a lap ahead - but, on the other hand, why didn't Verstappen just let him go?

"It was an unnecessary incident - neither came out of it with credit. I know Max, being Max, says, 'I don't listen to anybody - I just carry on doing what I'm doing', but I tell you what, next time he'll let him go - if not, he'll never be a multiple world champion: you've got to pick your fights. Having said all that, though, I think he'll be the man to beat in the next phase of Formula 1."

For so many years, I said, you and I would talk about three drivers - Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel - being on a separate plane from the rest, but now one thinks in terms of Lewis, Fernando and Max...

"I agree entirely," said Martin, "and sadly we're losing one of them - although in a way it's a relief, because no one enjoys seeing a driver as great as Fernando wasting his time. I don't think there's anyone in the paddock who doesn't still consider him one of the top three. "The problem is that he's made himself unemployable with some heavyweight decision-makers who are not in the paddock - people like [Dieter] Zetsche. Potentially there were seats available at Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull..."

True, I said, but look at MotoGP: for 2019 Honda has signed Jorge Lorenzo as team-mate to Marc Marquez, but such a scenario would be inconceivable in contemporary Formula 1 - for one thing, Hamilton and Vettel would never countenance Alonso in the other car, and for another, nowadays team principals seem paranoid about potential problems between drivers.

"Yes - they're scared of oil and water, aren't they? Personally I'd always have the two best available, then deal with problems as they came along."

"Kubica has been to hell and back, mentally and physically, so we've just got to hope it works out for him" Martin Brundle

Whatever else, I said, no one can dispute that Formula 1 would have been immeasurably better these last few years if Alonso had been in a competitive car.

"Absolutely right. A lot of people - including me - believe that if Fernando had been in the Ferrari this season he'd have been world champion. Look at that team - all the data they've got, two hugely experienced drivers... how could it go so wrong for so long? For sure the drivers have to put their hands up for some of that.

"Fernando is a huge loss to F1 - but you never know, maybe he'll be back. 'Is this farewell or good-bye for now?' I asked him in Abu Dhabi, and he said, 'It's good-bye for now'. I wasn't really expecting that."

At McLaren it is all change, for Stoffel Vandoorne has gone, too. "Being up against Alonso's relentless speed didn't help him," said Martin, "but I know a lot of drivers who'd like to be within half a tenth of Fernando on a qualifying lap. Stoffel's done all right, but it's the old pressure spotlight, isn't it? It can make you grow, or it can wilt you.

"I've got high hopes for Lando Norris - and George Russell at Williams, for that matter - and it'll be interesting to see Carlos Sainz leading a team."

Personally, I said, I'd have put Sainz in the Red Bull. "Me, too. All day long. I'm a fan of Carlos - he's got a lot of competitive maturity, and although I rate Gasly, I think Sainz would have been closer to Verstappen on performance. Pierre's had a good year, but this feels like a marriage of convenience - after being at Toro Rosso with him, Max knows Carlos is a bit handy...

"Since the Abu Dhabi test I've talked to him and Lando about the McLaren, and - like Alonso - both said it was well balanced, actually pretty good - except against the stopwatch! If a car's balanced, but slow, you've had it - better to have one that's a bastard and slow, because then you think, 'Well, if we fix that, that and that, it'll be quicker...'"

Like everyone in the business, Brundle is delighted to see Kubica return after eight years away, but is not without his concerns. Prior to Robert's rallying accident, I said, Alonso told me he thought him - in terms of pure talent - the best.

"I think he was right. The guy has been to hell and back, mentally and physically, so we've just got to hope it works out for him. I can see how he can get it together on a dry track on a test day - which is what he's done so far - but I worry about him handling wheel-to-wheel combat on a wet day at the start of a race - I don't see how he's got the ability to swing the wheel about, but I hope I'm wrong.

"In Brazil I was doing an on-track feature for Sky, and this guy - dressed in black, on a black bike - kept rushing past like a whirlwind. I later found out it was Robert - he was going so fast I couldn't see who the hell it was! I love his determination, and wish him the best."

Kubica is, of course, driving for Williams, a team - like McLaren - with a mountain to climb. In varying degrees, though, you could say that of any outside the top three, whose advantage over the other seven grows by the year.

"Yes," said Martin, "the rest mostly get lapped, don't they? Any of the top six cars could start in the pitlane, and finish in the top six. If there isn't a safety car that closes them all up at some critical point, that's what happens - and it's a massive problem. As you say, the haves and have-nots just get further apart.

"Why? Because those customer teams have half as many people, and a quarter of the budget - and the teams with all the money aren't about to give it up. When I hear someone like Gene Haas say, 'I don't really know why I'm in this'... whoa!

"If ever you needed proof of the importance of 'aero', look at Red Bull/Renault/McLaren - or, for that matter, Mercedes/Force India/Williams and Ferrari/Haas/Sauber. In each case, they have the same engine, so it's all about downforce - and the 2019 regulations will only increase the gap.

"There are huge changes next year - front wing, bargeboards, rear wing - and a major reset always benefits the big teams, because they have the resource to work on it and go racing at the same time. The aim of the revised regs is to improve the racing, but I'm not sure anything's going to change - when I said to Pat Symonds, 'What can we look forward to next year, with overtaking and so on?', his answer was, 'It'll stop it getting worse...' As far as I'm concerned, that's a cop-out."

In a recent conversation with Kevin Magnussen, he told me of the frustration of going to every race, thinking in terms of seventh place being like winning.

"It's an awful situation," Brundle said. "The fact is, Formula 1 has always been about the drivers, hasn't it? If people stop me in the street, they want to talk about Lewis or Fernando - no one ever says, 'Tell me more about those vented rear wheel hubs on the Mercedes...' I mean, who gives a toss? It's not an engineers' championship, but I'm afraid it's become one.

"The average age of the golf audience on Sky is 60, so it's dying with its fans; in Formula 1 it's 48, so if we carry on doing the same thing, is it going to die with us? Maybe we should try and engage the next generation, and bring in some of this digital stuff Liberty are talking about - but there's no point in any of it unless your core product is amazing, which means the fastest drivers in the world - the fastest, not the richest - wheel to wheel, and overtaking! What Liberty need to understand is that it's the action that matters..."

Amen to that.

The first Fifth Column appeared in Autosport on May 15 1980, and now this one, sad to say, will be the last. My grateful thanks to all who have read it down the years.

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