The biggest loser from F1's explosive silly season

Formula 1's summer break was supposed to be the time when teams and drivers kicked back on the beach to recharge their batteries after an intense first half of the 2018 campaign.

But no sooner had engines fallen silent after the post-Hungarian Grand Prix test, and factory doors at teams closed for the shutdown, than the driver market silly season exploded in unpredictable fashion.

Daniel Ricciardo's shock deal to join Renault in 2019, just days after telling his Red Bull bosses he was all ready to stay on, caught the paddock on the hop and triggered a summer of intrigue, gossip and swift moves to fill vacancies.

The surprise switch caught a lot of people out. Red Bull was probably in the easiest situation of all, though, with Pierre Gasly an obvious candidate to step up.

For Carlos Sainz Jr, Ricciardo's decision ultimately proved to be great news too. Although it originally meant he was jettisoned from Renault's line-up, he found refuge when Fernando Alonso added to the summer of fun by announcing he will not race in F1 in 2019. McLaren wasted little time in choosing the man it wanted to replace its current star.

But while Sainz and Renault proved to be the big winners of the shake-up, one man has come out of the last few weeks facing a frustratingly uncertain future, and is at serious risk of not having a competitive seat at all in 2019 despite being acknowledged as one of F1's future stars.

Mercedes junior Esteban Ocon has seen potential opportunities to join Renault and McLaren slip through his fingers as the prospects of staying on at his current Force India team have faded as well - even though in theory he had a contract in place with the rescued team.

Ocon has been brilliant since he started racing for Force India. He's been quick in the car, ruthless in establishing the boundaries with team-mate Sergio Perez (even if that caused a few headaches for management), and has done everything his Mercedes bosses wanted to see.

But Force India has struggled on the financial front this year and, amid a growing likelihood of Lance Stroll arriving given his father Lawrence's leadership of the consortium that rescued the team, it was clear that Ocon's future was perhaps best served elsewhere.

The idea of Ocon joining McLaren from as early as this year's Hungarian GP, in place of Vandoorne, was floated as a precursor to a full-time seat with the team in 2019

Life in F1 is never straightforward though, and avenues that were explored by Mercedes have ended up at dead ends.

Initially, there was some sniffing around at McLaren. The Woking team was obviously aware that Alonso's future was far from guaranteed, and with question marks about Stoffel Vandoorne's performances this year the option of someone like Ocon (allied, potentially, with some Mercedes backing) was of interest.

There was even, according to sources, the prospect of a switch happening this season. With Force India at risk of collapse because of financial troubles, Ocon could have been a free agent earlier than anticipated.

Had such a scenario played out, the idea of Ocon being slotted in at McLaren from as early as the Hungarian GP (in place of Vandoorne) was floated, as a precursor to a full-time seat with the team in 2019 if he proved to be good enough.

But Mercedes' discussions with McLaren suddenly went cold when the prospects of an assured 2019 race seat at Renault for Ocon opened up. Renault had long been interested in Ocon, and with Red Bull stalling on releasing Sainz the manufacturer seemed eager to go get Ocon instead.

Talks advanced enough not only for the Ocon/Vandoorne replacement idea at McLaren to be dropped, but for it to appear almost certain over the Hungarian GP weekend that a Renault contract would be sorted. Every indication was that Ocon was heading to Enstone, where he had already tested during his junior career, to partner Nico Hulkenberg in 2019.

All that changed, however, in the days after the Hungarian GP, with Ricciardo's contract dealing Ocon a fresh blow. With Force India, under new owners, looking likely to run a Stroll/Perez line-up, and Renault having rejected Ocon at the last minute, the prospects of a competitive seat in 2019 diminished immensely.

With the Renault option gone, Mercedes has gone back with its tail between its legs to McLaren to try to see if it can make another attempt to put an Ocon deal together. But even Alonso's departure has not made it a dead cert for him.

McLaren already having Sainz on board and knowing that it is going to be 2020 at the earliest before it can realistically think about challenging at the front gives its 2019 planning a different slant.

The fact that Lando Norris is being given a free practice run in Belgium this weekend (and probably in Italy too), further adds to the likelihood that McLaren's preferred option would be to give the youngster a rookie campaign in 2019 to learn the ropes before hoping he is ready for its uplift in fortunes for '20.

Even though Norris has not had the stellar Formula 2 campaign he would have hoped for, when he has starred he has been brilliant. McLaren may feel that ultimately he will learn more in an F1 car next year than he would by having a second campaign in the feeder series.

That the reserve driver is being run in Friday morning practice sessions shows how committed McLaren is to working out what is best for Norris's future, and Ocon's chances of getting himself back in the frame there will almost certainly rest on McLaren feeling that it is soon for Norris to step up.

The advantage that Norris has over Ocon, though, is that he is McLaren's own man. For Woking chiefs, in the middle of a substantial, long-term rebuilding process, the downside of taking Ocon is that he would be on a piece of elastic straight back to Brackley at some point. They would spend the time investing in him only to lose him when they most need him.

And this is not to say that Vandoorne is totally out of the picture yet either. It has been hard to judge the exact job the Belgian is doing because he is being compared to Alonso.

Two career-changing opportunities have already gone, and it may now be too late for Ocon to save himself for 2019

That is why Norris's Spa run is important for Vandoorne too, because it will give both drivers a benchmark to measure themselves against on the same track in the same conditions. Should Vandoorne come out of the Norris comparison in favour, and continue the uplift in form he showed in Hungary, then he still has a chance of keeping a McLaren seat for 2019 - which would of course deny Ocon.

If Force India and McLaren end up being closed to Ocon, then things looks extremely difficult for him.

A Williams switch would be relatively easy to sort out (Williams is a Mercedes-powered team), but its own financial situation is such that it potentially needs drivers with bigger chequebooks to come on board. And would a Williams move be the right one for Ocon at a time when he needs to be experiencing life at the front end of the grid?

In the end, Ocon's hopes of keeping himself in an F1 race seat in 2019 may well now rest on what other people do, rather than anything he can do on track. Matters now appear to be out of his hands.

If Perez decides that he and his sponsors want to go elsewhere (perhaps to Haas or even Williams), then that would at least open up a seat for Ocon at Force India.

Could Haas be an option, despite the team's close alliance with Ferrari? Would Sauber want to take a Mercedes junior again?

Right now, Ocon clearly faces a difficult situation - and all pretty much through no fault of his own. Two career-changing opportunities have already gone, and it could now be too late to save himself with a decent seat for 2019.

Amazingly, when the driver market finally shakes itself out, one of F1's top talents may well find himself as the last man standing with everyone else having taken the seats.

But, if he loses out this time, don't imagine for a second that this is the end of the road for him. Ocon is too good not to have a long, successful career in F1.

With Mercedes behind him - and clear that he is a long-term contender for a works seat - things won't stay still for long. You can be sure that the man left out in the cold at the end of this year, will be first in line when it comes to sorting out a seat for 2020.