Will the giant of modern NASCAR ever win again?
NASCAR's most dominant driver is going through a long win drought. Has Jimmie Johnson reached the end of his Cup dynasty?
Tick. Tick. Tick. The races start and the races end, laps rolling off in between, the months pass and the question becomes not just a question but the question: Has NASCAR's most dominant driver of the last decade and a half won for the final time?
Hendrick Motorsports star Jimmie Johnson is mired in a 34-race winless streak. At some point, even the most talented drivers and teams stop winning - dynasties come to an end. Success is no longer a given.
"Do you think that [four-time Daytona 500 winner] Cale Yarborough thought when he got to 83 wins that would be his last win?" asks three-time NASCAR champion Darrell Waltrip. "Do you think that Bobby [Allison, 1983 Cup champion] and me got to 84 and we thought that was going to be our last win?"
Yarborough is an increasingly relevant comparison to Johnson. He was the first driver to win three consecutive top-tier NASCAR titles between 1976-78 and managed something remarkable in NASCAR's premier series: he continued winning even after he scaled back his schedule. He won multiple times in his mid-40s, while entering barely half the races during some seasons.
But after win number 83, the 1985 autumn race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, he won no more. As an owner/driver in the final two years of his career, Yarborough made 44 more starts before retiring.
Waltrip, meanwhile, competed for eight more years after his 84th and final victory in the 1992 Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. So, too, did Richard Petty, NASCAR's all-time win leader with 200 career victories. Each made more than 200 additional starts, but neither won again.

Last June, Johnson and Hendrick announced a three-year contract extension that will keep the California native behind the wheel through at least 2020. Physically, Johnson is in perhaps the best shape of his career. He does not doubt that he will return to victory lane. Neither do others.
"I feel like I'd be a fool to say [he won't win again]," Waltrip says. "Because he hasn't gone that long. And that's an amazing team with all the resources, with a great crew chief, great leadership, great owner.
"I think it would be hard to bet against him winning again but he's not going to win a lot again."
Johnson deserves to be mentioned alongside the legends of NASCAR. He has equalled Yarborough's 83 career victories, and his next victory will tie him with Allison and Waltrip. Two more wins and he goes fourth on NASCAR's all-time victory list, trailing only Petty, David Pearson (105) and former Hendrick team-mate Jeff Gordon (93). He shares the record for most premier series championships at seven with Petty and Dale Earnhardt. An eighth would accomplish something most felt could never occur.
"It would be hard to bet against him winning again, but he's not going to win a lot again" Darrell Waltrip
Johnson's career has been marked by constants. He has driven for car owner Rick Hendrick exclusively since making his debut in 2001 and has had the same crew chief in Chad Knaus. And, at least until the '19 season begins, the same sponsor in Lowe's.
Winning has also been another constant. From his first full season when he won three times and finished fifth in the points, through to 2017 when he again won three races in what was a difficult year that ended with an early playoff exit. In 17 years of full-time competition Johnson has not won fewer than two races during a season. His average for wins per year is closer to five.
Johnson and Knaus set the competitive bar and now those standards have become their enemy. There have been longer losing streaks by equally talented competitors, and there's hardly a driver, maybe none other than Johnson himself, who has not gone at least one season without a victory. But if you race long enough it will happen.

Defending champion Martin Truex Jr endured a 219-race winless stretch. Bill Elliott, the 1988 title winner, once went 227 races between wins.
Johnson knows his team isn't running as well as expected, with Hendrick struggling to get to grips with the new Chevrolet Camaro at a time when he was already mired in a slump. There have been signs of improvement, with Chase Elliott notably taking a brace of top three finishes in recent weeks, but the Chevy still lags behind the Toyota Camry and the surprise package Ford Fusion.
"We have high expectations for ourselves, first and foremost, and we think that we should be in a position to win races every year and compete for race wins each weekend," says Johnson.
Steve Letarte, now a NASCAR analyst with NBC Sports in America, went to work for Hendrick at the age of 16 and spent two decades with the organisation. Before he was Dale Earnhardt Jr's crew chief, he held the same role for Gordon. And before he did that, he was car chief for Gordon's famed #24 car, having previously been a mechanic and tyre specialist for the four-time champion.
Letarte was there to witness Johnson's arrival and the success that soon followed.
"A great year for Jimmie Johnson in the last 10 years was five, six, seven, eight wins," he says. "I think a great year in Jimmie Johnson's current stance is two, three wins."
Part of the reason for his "slump," Letarte believes, is that "I think he's not driving the best equipment."

But Letarte also makes the point that a much improved Hendrick outift may be a double-edged sword. Race-winning machinery for Johnson would be perfect, but he would then have to contend with the rising younger talents within the same organisation.
Elliott is the biggest threat although he needs to find a way to turn a run of eight second-place career finishes into a maiden victory. It was no surprise to hear team legend Gordon suggest that Elliott can go on a "run like Johnson" after seizing that elusive win.
"Now if Hendrick Motorsports, in the big cycle of NASCAR, rotates back to the top like perhaps Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing or Stewart-Haas at the moment is, then, among the current stable of drivers he's going to have to beat Chase Elliott," says Letarte. "And can [Johnson] often do that? That's why we all come and buy tickets; it will be great to watch."
"I certainly miss the camaraderie, friendships and history I've had with the other veteran team-mates" Jimmie Johnson
Elliott was Gordon's successor two seasons ago, but now there's a great youth movement at Hendrick as 24-year-old Alex Bowman replaced the retired Earnhardt and reigning Xfinity champion William Byron took the ousted Kasey Kahne's seat. That's a departure of more than five decades of experience and nearly 140 victories since the end of 2015.
Johnson suggests that it has already had an impact.
"I certainly miss the camaraderie and friendships and history I've had with the other veteran team-mates," he Johnson. "You also learn set-up styles. When Jeff Gordon thought his car was perfect, I knew I needed two or three changes to get my car to where I loved it; same with Dale and Kasey and so on. That part I am developing and trying to get my arms around."
There are signs that Johnson is back on track, he earned his first top-three finish of the year last month and he is running inside the top 10 in races more often, but there are still signs things aren't quite as good as they should be. There was the mistake early in the season at Atlanta and he triggered a pile-up at Talladega when his car got loose.

"We are improving," Johnson says. "We're making [the new car] better each and every week. And, I've used this phrase many times before, but we're just stacking pennies. But, the effort is there. We are such a united team and working as close together as ever. And, I know in time we'll get there."
Confidence may be just as important as any part of the racecar. Waltrip says mounting losses can cause a driver, no matter how successful they have been, to question their team as well as themselves.
"In the beginning, it's no big deal," Waltrip says. "You think, 'Aw, we're just in a little bit of a slump. We'll come out of it. We'll be fine.' But the longer it goes, the worse it gets.
"You start to question everything - you question yourself, you question your team, you question your car, you question your crew chief. 'Why am I not winning? Why are things not going my way? Why am I in the situation I'm in?' A lot of it is mental; some of it is physical and some of it is just racing gods - they don't smile on you anymore."
Johnson can look to Hendrick's history to find similar slumps, Gordon - who had Letarte on top of his pitbox - followed his title-contending 2007 year with a season in which he could not find his way to victory lane. No wonder Letarte called it a "grind" to contend with that frustration in a series that's already considered to be wearing.
"Emotionally exhausting," is how Letarte describes that season. "I remember that was probably the most difficult year of my career after coming so close to a championship in 2007. Falling short and then knowing you have a driver that can win, and not being able to do it.
"In a sport that's already a grind, it was emotionally exhausting to not ever have a recharge, and that's really what a win is. It wears on you after a while."

But even if Johnson does make a comeback, the winning will stop. No matter the driver - from those that won multiple times over long careers to those who won only briefly and then were gone - it will stop. But has Johnson really reached that point just yet?
He and his team have had to battle back before - going winless for brief periods that caused others to take note but actually hardly caused a ripple inside the #48 camp.
Johnson and his team have had to battle back before and these hardly caused a ripple inside the #48 camp
Still, it's unusual that Johnson and his team have appeared to be this far off the mark. No laps led this year, no wins since mid-season of 2017, and he won no poles last year - something he'd failed to do only once before. And his qualifying this season has been nothing to write home about with only one starting spot inside the top 10 so far.
Johnson, for his part, says more time is needed.
"By no means am I content with where I'm at and where this team is at in our performances, but we can't work any harder," he says. "Manufacturer, driver, crew chief, team, organisation - we can't. We are literally working around the clock and doing anything and everything we can.
"So, at some point, you have to say, we're all in. We just need time. We'll get there."
But until then. Tick. Tick. Tick.

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