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This article first appeared in GP Racing magazine.
By the end of 2018, the likelihood is that either Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel will have become a five-time world champion. In the statistical pantheon, that would move them ahead of Alain Prost and into a tie for second place with Juan Manuel Fangio, with only Michael Schumacher ahead - and one step closer to being matched.
So who will make the leap? The 2017 season provided the first head-to-head battle between these two titans of Formula 1's modern age, and '18 could be the next: Ferrari's against-the-odds Australia win and Bahrain triumph raised hopes of a tantalising face-off for a fifth title.
At this early stage in the season, however, there are doubts as to whether Ferrari can maintain the momentum of its first campaign under the new regulations. And, after 2017's end-of-year implosion, whether it can keep up a season-long challenge even though it has managed to start competitively.
The drivers also have their fallibilities - Hamilton and his occasional off-weekends; Vettel and the sort of red-mist moments that proved so costly last year. But of their ability to deliver world titles there is no question. That fifth championship clearly matters to both. But is it about being the first to five? Or could it be something less tangible... more personal?
