How ugly rules could hurt Red Bull

So, have we got used to it yet? This new generation F1 car that makes the '04 Walrus-nose Williams FW26 look like Jennifer Lopez?

We'd been hearing for a while that the new cars weren't going to look so good, and how! The Ferrari F2012 made you cringe, until the wraps came off Sauber's C31! It must be something to do with the dark livery at the front.

The logic is simple enough. Lower the nose by just over an inch and you should have better safety in a nose-to-side impact, as well as hopefully reducing the chance of an airborne accident like Mark Webber suffered when he ran over the back of Heikki Kovalainen's Lotus in Valencia 18 months ago.

But, as someone put it to me yesterday, "Provided you're not driving 'em, you'd sooner they were orbiting Neptune than looking like that..."

You do wonder why they didn't lower the chassis height at the same time and, amusingly, there seems to be some finger-pointing going on. Lotus's James Allison apparently warned that the cars weren't going to look pretty, while the FIA's Charlie Whiting is said to be denying all responsibility.

At this time of year we're used to people cooing appreciatively over sexy new cars and declaring, 'let's hope it goes as well as it looks!'

Ferrari chief Luca di Montezemolo, meanwhile, reworked that for 2012: "We don't care what it looks like so long as it's quick!"

Which is, of course, the crux. We'll get used to the noses, as we did skinnier tyres and wider front wings. The $64m question is whether the new cars will significantly alter performance and upset the order. Basically, will they peg back or even overtake Red Bull and Adrian Newey?

We have reached that enticing time of the year when, although we won't find out for sure - that only happens in qualifying at Melbourne - we will at least start to see some early indicators as the three pre-season tests evolve.

Although the actual effect of the new noses won't add up to much, Red Bull's rivals probably feel some relief that even Newey has been unable to avoid an ugly nose on RB8 (McLaren apparently had a lower bulkhead to start with).

More significant to the Red Bull performance will be the prescribed exhaust exits and their influence on aerodynamics, in conjunction with the need for a stiffer front wing.

Newey, speaking at the launch of RB8, admitted that clever use of exhaust technology had helped Red Bull stay ahead of the pack and that a big rethink has been necessary.

"We designed last year's RB7 around the exhaust position and were probably the only people to do so," he concedes, "so it may be that we've lost more than other people.

Lotus's James Allison apparently warned that the cars would look ugly in 2012 © LAT

"This year, knowing that the [freedom of] exhaust position would be taken away, we've had to go back and look at how we developed the car through the last one and two years with the side exit exhaust and make sure that the routes we took that were only suitable for that exhaust position, were re-evaluated."

The previous exhaust allowed Red Bull to run a high rideheight but without it, that was unsustainable and the team has had to go redevelop RB8 around a lower rideheight.

How significant will that prove to be? The high rear rideheight was instrumental in the increased rake run by the recent Red Bull lineage and likely, therefore, key to the effectiveness of the front wing.

That, puzzlingly for the opposition, appeared to run lower to the ground with more elasticity than theirs, while still meeting the regulations. Ferrari, apparently trying to develop in the same direction, suffered some very public oscillations on Friday mornings at the back end of 2011.

It was interesting, therefore, to read Force India's Andrew Green responding to Gary Anderson's question on the same subject.

"The FIA have given a bit of a clampdown on that just before Christmas," Green said. "It was nice of them to give us that much notice... So the stiffness of the wing has effectively doubled, and not just a symmetric doubling, it's also asymmetric. That was a bit of a headache over the winter months. It's a very stringent test now."

When the FIA made the test more stringent in the middle of 2010 it did not seem to hinder Red Bull but, from the outside at least, the challenges facing the team from the start of 2012 look altogether more serious.

It is interesting to note, too, that Ferrari has finally adopted pullrod suspension. The team's Nikolas Tombazis has said they have gone that route for aerodynamic reasons but technical director Pat Fry has already said that the team is departing from a long-held philosophy that has led to recent Ferraris using their rubber very gently.

Rather than the advantage many predicted that would give them in 2011, the opposite turned out to be true when it came to generating sufficient tyre heat to optimise a qualifying lap and to use the harder compound Pirellis properly in the race.

Ferrari has switched to pullrod technology for 2012 © LAT

The seriousness with which Ferrari is addressing the matter is emphasised by the recruitment of former Bridgestone tyre expert Hirohide Hamashima.

Ferrari's performance will be one of the most interesting facets as the on-track running finally starts, as will potential improvements from Mercedes and Renault, whose technical chiefs both openly admit that their 2011 designs were compromised.

Peering into a crystal ball, I'd predict a much, much tougher time for Red Bull in 2012. There again, I've been watching Newey creations long enough to know better.

One thing is for sure. If anything is fundamentally quicker than RB8, nobody's going to care what it looks like!