The complexities of the 2013 silly season

Whatever Lewis Hamilton's real motivation was for deciding to pop down to Red Bull Racing for a brief 'chat' with Christian Horner in Montreal last Saturday night, one thing is for sure: his actions have kicked off the annual driver market silly season.

Forget the talk that Hamilton's visit was about sorting out a contract (it would be Hamilton's management team, not him, who would do that, and it would not be done at a race track).

Instead, his visit probably had more to do with exorcising frustrations in his head after a difficult day on track; and maybe finding some inner clarity about just where he sees his F1 future path mapping out long-term if McLaren cannot give him the very best chance of winning the title.

Yet for all the excitement that Hamilton/Horner's chat has caused, what is more intriguing about the way this year's driver-market chatter is going is not what it means for next year - but where it is going to head for the following season.

Because what Montreal almost certainly marked was the start of the fight for the 2013 world championship.

Next year seems pretty much done and dusted. McLaren will remain the same with Hamilton and Jenson Button; Ferrari has Fernando Alonso long-term and it has said numerous times that Felipe Massa will remain too.

Should Massa stay, then that will almost certainly mean that Mark Webber will recommit for another year at Red Bull Racing - for the Australian, whose competitive fire still burns bright, only has eyes on his current seat or Ferrari.

Red Bull Racing does have the option of promoting one of the juniors from Scuderia Toro Rosso, but neither Sebastien Buemi nor Jaime Alguersuari seem ready for that leap yet - and the highly-rated Daniel Ricciardo needs to get some time racing in F1 before he will be considered for RBR.

Webber's contract ends this year © sutton-images.com

Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher look set to stay at Mercedes, while at Renault much will depend on how quickly Robert Kubica recovers from his injuries and he is actually able to race in F1 again.

If he is out, Renault may well choose to stick with Heidfeld again, or it could opt for another experienced man like Rubens Barrichello - who may find his motivation needs a lift after a difficult campaign at Williams.

Renault could also gamble on some rising star to slot in alongside Vitaly Petrov. Romain Grosjean has been mentioned - but there are more experienced quick guys available, including Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg.

The main changes look set to be at the back of the grid. Jarno Trulli has some big decisions to make about if he still has the motivation to fight it out for another year at Team Lotus, while Timo Glock is believed to be top of the Hingham-based outfit's shopping list if they need someone else to partner Heikki Kovalainen.

So while 2012 appears to be fairly static, the real excitement, and where the battlegrounds are being drawn at the moment, are for 2013 - because there are a lot of drivers available then and there are likely going to be some fairly big changes at the top end of the grid.

Of the current big three teams, (Red Bull Racing, McLaren and Ferrari) only Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso are locked down for 2013 - which means one vacancy each at Red Bull Racing and Ferrari, and two free seats at McLaren for now.

All of these positions are hugely attractive - and it is where the situation shakes out for Hamilton and Button that is most interesting.

For Hamilton, a move to Ferrari seems highly unlikely, with Alonso almost certain to veto any chance of a renewal of the partnership that turned so sour at McLaren in 2007.

So Hamilton appears to have a straight choice between extending his future at McLaren or taking a gamble and making the switch to Red Bull Racing - if indeed the reigning champion feels that he is the right man for it.

It is clear no formal negotiations have started between Hamilton and either camp, and the likely final decision will no doubt be swayed by which team he believes has the greatest chance of making him world champion again.

Button is enjoying life at McLaren © sutton-images.com

And, although on Saturday night in Montreal he may well have felt that McLaren may not be giving him what he needs, by now - having seen Button's performance on Sunday - perhaps he feels very different about the future.

For all that Red Bull Racing has had a mammoth qualifying advantage this year, it appears that in the last few events McLaren has had a quicker car in the races - and it is on Sundays that world championship points are awarded.

Should that situation continue, and Hamilton feel that McLaren can take on Adrian Newey's best, then there is no reason to even consider a change.

But should there be many days like Saturday in Montreal - where Hamilton drives his heart out only to find himself unable to do anything about Red Bull Racing and Ferrari - then the switch becomes more tempting. That is part of life for a top-line grand prix driver - and a skill to make sure you are in the right car at the right time.

For Button, there are some interesting choices too. The Canadian winner is in a truly sweet place at the moment at McLaren - enjoying life like never before, finding a team that he loves and it loves him, and having at his disposal a car that he is able to pull off amazing victories like that which he delivered in Canada.

That sweet spot he has found at the moment is something he would be unlikely to risk throwing away for a switch to Red Bull Racing if the offer came - for there is no guarantee he could find the level of serenity he has right now.

Button has openly talked about wanting to spend the rest of his F1 career at McLaren, but the one thing that could well prove a temptation could be the chance to end his career at the Prancing Horse.

He certainly has the speed, image, technical expertise and personal qualities to be the perfect man to slot in alongside Alonso if the Italian outfit seeks a replacement for Massa, and no driver with such passion for motor racing would not be tempted if Maranello came a knocking.

The next few months are going to be fascinating as the first moves in a very complex, drawn out chess game for 2013 begin.

And all we know right now is that we can expect more secret meetings behind motorhomes, more PR spin with the media, and ever greater speculation before things settle down - and we can then start gossiping about 2014.