The pros and cons of F1’s 2021 rule changes

This feels like the year when everybody seeks to turn the page and write a new chapter. This is how I imagine the atmosphere in the offices of the FIA and Liberty Media after having miraculously delivered last season in very difficult circumstances.

These two main stakeholders in Formula 1 have also defined a new strategy to try and enhance the spectacle of motorsport's top category. And this year we will see the outcome of what was initially announced at the end of 2019.

The new vision is well-known: ensuring a closer, fairer and more exciting sporting spectacle. At a very high level we will see significantly less downforce, heavier vehicles and (allegedly) slower tyres. Hence, in absolute value or, for the more technical enthusiasts, the dynamic of the centre of mass will certainly exhibit a higher lap time with all the competitors.

The main areas the teams will have to manage to differentiate themselves are aerodynamics and finance. Let's analyse what this will imply.

Favouring close racing means allowing overtaking. The only way to reach this goal is to extend the braking areas and allow the cars to perform better when they are getting closer to a competitor than in 2020.

To achieve that goal, the aero changes will reduce the downforce level and the impact of the wake outwash and turbulence management, which affect the aero field behind.

To lower the downforce level, the surface of the floor and the efficiency of the diffuser will be reduced. The new construction and shape of the front tyre will also have an impact on the downforce level, especially on the front, but we can be sure this aspect has been already addressed by the teams, at least at CFD and windtunnel levels.

For the aero field behind the vehicles, the components influencing the wake outwash are especially the front wing, brake duct, bargeboards and possibly some aero slots on the side of the floor. The impact of the new rules on the design is that engineers will have cleaner lines and surfaces to work with and more predictable aero flows to simulate.

For the pure sake of the sporting spectacle, we need to hope that Mercedes's 2020 performance was heavily relying on the functioning of the more complex aerodynamic parts that are now forbidden

Another change that won't be negligible is the increase in wheelspin and sliding, especially at the beginning of the season. This will help the best suspension designers and drivers' style to make a difference.

Theoretically this is all correct and the strategy proposed by the FIA and Liberty Media to save the sport is definitely addressing the vision. But, like all strategies, there are opportunities and threats. Let's try to explore them.

Aero complexity

The changes will go towards a less complex and articulated aero configuration with the reduction of parts like fins and wings which, if not harmonised, can introduce a very unstable behaviour of the aero field around the car. Hence the car should be 'easier' to be designed from an aerodynamic standpoint.

For the pure sake of the sporting spectacle, we need to hope that Mercedes's 2020 performance was heavily relying on the functioning of the more complex aerodynamic parts that are now forbidden. But if this is not the case and the lap time change proves to be a pure offset from 2020, the cars' performance for everyone could go back to the level of 2019, when Mercedes was still on top, albeit by a smaller margin.

Time limit on CFD/windtunnel time

If a team finds the magic formula, there is only one aero update available during the season. Teams will have one bullet! And with the limitation in windtunnel and CFD hours depending on last year's classification, we might see the same lap time gaps frozen for the whole season.

Mercedes started working on the current season earlier than the other teams and its simulation tools have proved to be very accurate and another distinctive point in the battle.

No 'pink Mercedes' anymore

The FIA will be stricter in allowing similarities and reverse engineering exercises from one team to another. But if we think of the close racing side, Racing Point (now to be called Aston Martin) actually closed the gap last year and quite often added to the show. Is this a missed opportunity?

Budget cap

Big teams will have to manage smaller budgets. It might be extremely challenging to keep a "continuous-improvement" mindset with less than half of the money. This might be the only real challenge for Mercedes and Red Bull compared to 2020.

Just as with the aero testing restriction, this rule may introduce the risk of freezing the performance scenario that we see in the first few races.

The risk in this area is also related to how and whether the FIA will be able/capable of monitoring the books. I am even more intrigued by how the immense creativity of the motorsport world will try to find new ways and workarounds in this new area.

And it looks like people have already started exploring the boundaries of the rules, with actions like the movement of personnel from a team to another but keeping the people on their books (or maybe not?) or the flourishing of 'Applied' or 'Technology' organisations today, as sister companies to the racing teams.

I like to dream of the day when motorsport ingenuity will unlock innovative approaches in the finance world as much as it has been doing on the technical side. Mr Warren Buffett beware!