The 'what if?' career of the Nurburgring's last F1 podium finisher

When Formula 1 returns to the Nurburgring this weekend, it's got a lot to live up to.

In addition to the century of grand prix racing history at the venue - Green Hell and all - the last F1 race back in 2013 was a cracker. Yes, it ended with Sebastian Vettel taking his fourth win (of 13) of that season, but that barely scratches its surface.

This was a race that really should have been won by the Lotus squad and not the era's dominant team, Red Bull. The event's gloriously hot weather, combined with introduction of new rear tyre constructions after the Silverstone blowouts that year, turned the pre-race expectation that it would be a Red Bull vs Mercedes (which started on pole with Lewis Hamilton) affair on its head.

In the end, F1 got a thriller that Autosport called "an exercise in flat-out, give-it-everything performance that F1 should always be about", as Vettel held on to defeat the day's faster Lotus package and two determined and rapid rivals in Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean. Vettel and Red Bull displayed "sheer perfect relentlessness", per our report.

But such a race is not necessarily on the cards this time around. For a start, F1 2020 lacks the off-track drama concerning changing tyre construction, and the Mercedes W11 might end up being considered F1's most dominant car considering its qualifying pace and the sensational commitment its drivers can display. And the upcoming weekend is expected to be cold.

This takes away Mercedes' traditional struggles in the heat, as was evidenced way back in that 2013 campaign. At a chilly Barcelona in that pre-COVID lifetime, it was of course Mercedes that led the way. But then, forecasted rain always introduces an element of unpredictability...

And yet, whatever happens with the heavens, this weekend is still likely go down as a notable moment in F1's history.

For a start, if he starts in fact, Raikkonen will become the sole holder of the record for most F1 races. Autosport recently spoke to the Alfa Romeo driver about that feat (and no, totally unsurprisingly, he doesn't care about taking the accolade from Rubens Barrichello), which you will be able to read later this month.

But, while that is almost certain to become tangible F1 history - although not a given considering DNSs remain possible in modern F1, as Carlos Sainz Jr's broken exhaust proved at Spa - it is something less perceptible that's worth considering ahead of F1's first visit to the Eifel mountains in seven years.

"I was very happy with my weekend, but I should have won the race," Grosjean says of the 2013 German GP.

The 2013 Nurburgring race rather sums up Grosjean's F1 career - and all these years later it looks like a case of 'what if?'. What if he had won that event?

"It was pretty clear I was going to win the race until the safety car [called for Jules Bianchi's wayward, empty Marussia rolling down the track near the final chicane]. Yes, a podium finish is always mega, but missing out on the win was a big thing - I really had a big lead. No hard feelings though, it was a good race on a great track, and obviously a podium in Formula 1 is always super good."

That Grosjean was on for a certain win is pretty debateable, despite his fine display en route to third, which clinched the final podium berth on what looked like possibly being F1's last visit to the Nurburgring - at least until 2020's unpleasantness intervened.

Grosjean did lead for five laps, surprising everyone with his pace on aging rubber, but a slightly scrappy lap just before he stopped for the third time, when running second ahead of Raikkonen, was part of the reason Vettel just retained his lead at the final stops. In the end, Grosjean had to cede second to his charging team-mate, who fell a lap short of really challenging Vettel on-track.

The 2013 Nurburgring race rather sums up Grosjean's F1 career - and all these years later it looks like a case of 'what if?'.

What if he had won that event? What if he had won the 2012 European GP, where an alternator issue thwarted another brilliant effort (and did for Vettel that day too)?

Of course, it's ultimately pointless to consider futures that never came to be, but at least Grosjean would've been able to call himself a GP winner - an accolade that his early F1 career speed deserved, despite the controversial crashes.

His underwhelming 2009 cameo and 2012 shunts are well known. As are his great efforts with Lotus as it stumbled with financial plight back to Renault ownership for 2016. That was the year he joined Haas - at the time a decision he called "a calculated risk" considering the brand new team's close ties to Ferrari, and was a move that was then considered to be a possible stepping stone to a Scuderia seat that never came.

The five years that followed have been rather boom and bust for Grosjean.

From the highs of Haas's debut points and high constructors' finish in 2018, to the constant clashes with Kevin Magnussen, Netflix scrutiny and famous radio outbursts - the latter on full display last time out in Russia.

For FP1 this weekend, Ferrari junior Callum Ilott will drive his car. It feels like change is in the air, with Mick Schumacher also driving in that session for Alfa and Robert Shwartzman doing likewise in Abu Dhabi.

We have discussed before how Haas may be mulling an all-new driver line-up for 2021 - with the Ferrari juniors potentially playing a part and team boss Gunther Steiner saying it would not be "ethical" to abandon the manufacturer's engines, despite its 2020 disaster.

PLUS: The bust and boom that will start Ferrari's second F1 millennium

And so, we return to the Nurburgring - with 2013 and 2020 firmly in mind.

In the former year, F1 career doom hung over Grosjean given his transgressions the previous season. But he responded, mainly after the tyre changes were implemented, to be what we called "the nearest thing Sebastian Vettel had to a rival between August and November" (a period that produced four more podiums, including a near win in Japan).

Grosjean has already said he has "options elsewhere" in other categories for 2021 after his current Haas contract ends. It seems he may need to recreate his late 2013 form if he is to enter another F1 chapter, or start writing a new one away from the championship.