Why even the Mercedes aces are struggling to stay on the road in Sochi

Two things really stood out from opening practice sessions at the 2020 Russian Grand Prix. One, which absolutely was not a shock, is that Mercedes appears to have its usual crushing advantage. But the second main takeaway was something rare.

In both FP1 and FP2 in Sochi, both of the Black Arrows drivers were having a good go at throwing their W11s at the scenery - or what passes for scenery with walls lining the track at the 2014 winter Olympics venue.

Both Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas were among those going off - they were far from alone in this regard - but they were doing it at crucial points too. The track has been on the calendar for seven years now, but something is different this year.

Essentially, this boils down to the Sochi track not being as used as much as other F1 circuits, and this year there is no Formula 3 championship on the support bill after Oscar Piastri was crowned in that dramatic finale at Mugello two weeks ago.

As F1 and Formula 2 are the only series in town this year, there is comparatively little rubber down on an already slippery surface - the 3.634-miles are typically dusty. Plus, Sochi is a coastal getaway, so unpredictable wind gusts are also a problem.

The result was that F1's best got caught out at times on Friday.

Things were signposted early in FP1, when McLaren's Carlos Sainz Jr spun off backwards into the barriers and later Williams's Nicholas Latifi had a similar, albeit heavier shunt, in similar circumstances. In FP2, Max Verstappen spun going through the tight left of Turn 14, the corner after the notorious Turn 13 right - at the end of a heavy braking zone where Sainz had a massive crash back in 2015 - and Romain Grosjean and George Russell also looped around in FP1.

In that session, Hamilton had a lock-up at Turn 2 that looked dramatic and caused him major vibrations, ruining his set of hards. But that didn't cause his P19 result in that session - that was down to a smaller Turn 2 lock up on his softs, with the virtual safety car for Sainz's off and debris on the track also causing an interruption.

Bottas too managed to destroy a set of medium tyres with an FP1 lock-up - his at Turn 13 after he had set that session's best time. As a result, Mercedes lost a lot of its planned running in Friday's opening 90-minute display, which is was why it was out unusually early in FP2.

The track is very similar to Barcelona as the drivers have to drive in a smart way to keep the tyres alive, especially the rears, to make big gains in the third sector

There, Mercedes also gave its drivers an unusual double attempt on the softs as it altered its programme as a result of the first session's indiscretions. On their second FP2 qualifying simulation runs, the team also provided extra power compared to its usual practice mode as part of an engine experiment it was conducting. And, on the laps they had their engines turned up more than normal, both drivers had offs.

Hamilton's heavy left-front lock-up ruined his run as he was forced to check up urgently to avoid running into the barriers. Bottas did manage to get to the end of the lap and he went quickest, but he slid off at the final corner, striking the grass verge on the exit of the right-hander as he surged to the line.

It was clearly a struggle with the grip levels today and as the walls are so close - Sochi is essentially a street track - they bite. The track is very similar to Barcelona as the drivers have to drive in a smart way to keep the tyres alive, especially the rears, to make big gains in the third sector. If they push too hard, they'll lose way more there - as Bottas did, with 0.5s going missing from his advantage at the end of sector two as a result.

"Even for us it doesn't really feel that great out there to be honest - the grip is quite poor, there's a lot of sliding around," said Hamilton. "And yes, I was just surprised to see that gap [1.058s from Bottas's FP2 topping time to Renault's Daniel Ricciardo in third]. It must feel even worse for those that are behind. The track will grip up and things might close up tomorrow."

The track is also evolving with each passing year. The previously ultra-smooth surface is becoming more abrasive as it gets older (this writer sympathises, Sochi Autodrom), which means tyre warm-up is actually getting easier for the drivers. In terms of strategy for the race on Sunday, a one stopper is expected.

Overall order

1. Mercedes Bottas 1m33.519s
2. Renault Ricciardo 1m34.577s
3. McLaren Sainz 1m34.723s
4. Racing Point Perez 1m34.890s
5. Red Bull Verstappen 1m35.048s
6. Ferrari Leclerc 1m35.052s
7. AlphaTauri Gasly 1m35.210s
8. Alfa Romeo Raikkonen 1m35.516s
9. Williams Latifi 1m35.563s
10. Haas Grosjean 1m35.729s

Mercedes' power mode experiment meant the 1.058s gap was its largest FP2 advantage compared to the five other times this year where it has ended the opening day on top.

The gap has ballooned from Red Bull's 0.246s gap at Mugello to Renault's 1.058s deficit in Sochi, which, in addition to Mercedes' extra practice power today, can be explained by the varying types of corners at the Russian track.

It's medium speed early in the lap and slow at the end, so there are simply more chances to show the W11's versatility, and these are also areas where Mercedes' recent cars have typically been strong.

Soft tyre order

1. Mercedes 1m39.972s 7 laps
2. Racing Point 1m40.329s 8 laps
3. Williams 1m40.502s 4 laps
4. Renault 1m40.617s 11 laps
5. Red Bull 1m40.790s 9 laps
6. AlphaTauri 1m40.865s 12 laps
7. Ferrari 1m41.098s 8 laps
8. McLaren 1m41.227s 14 laps
9. Haas 1m41.388s 9 laps
10. Alfa Romeo 1m42.212s 9 laps

When it comes to the race tyres - of which the soft (the average long run pace on this tyre is above) is likely not going to be the ideal rubber for the frontrunners, even if it did hang in there better than expected - Red Bull looks good on the mediums (see below).

But this average comes in from a much shorter stint, so fuel load - as ever one of the variables that mean this analysis is only a snapshot of the running in today's sessions alone - is a consideration compared to Mercedes, which ran longer.

At this point we should also note that all the teams worked hard to understand the soft as it is the softest Pirelli has brought to Sochi compared to previous years - the C5.

Medium tyre order

1. Red Bull 1m39.546s 9 laps
2. Mercedes 1m40.016s 14 laps
3. Ferrari 1m40.094s 6 laps
4. Renault 1m40.162s 9 laps
5. Alfa Romeo 1m41.091s 10 laps
6. McLaren 1m41.323s 4 laps
7. Williams 1m41.711s 9 laps
8. Haas 1m42.111s 11 laps
9. Racing Point N/A
10. AlphaTauri N/A

Looking at the hard tyre averages (below), Mercedes' advantage is enormous. It was 1.403s faster on average compared to Racing Point, which did a similar length stint. Red Bull didn't do any hard tyre running, which means we can't directly compare F1's typically top two cars on this rubber today.

Mercedes ends the day happier than it sometimes is at this stage in terms of its progress. This can sometimes raise a wry smile considering just how dominant the team is, but then that attitude helps to explain why it is in that position the first place.

"I think we could have done a bit better. It will be tough in qualifying to be in P3" Max Verstappen

"The long runs were also good, we look a bit better than we normally do on a Friday despite running a bit less wing here," said Mercedes' trackside engineering director, Andrew Shovlin. "There's a bit of work to do on the balance for single lap and long run, but overall, it seems like we have got off to a decent start."

So, expect Mercedes' streak of eight wins (since 1913, as Benz) at the Russian GP to continue - unless a shock happens, which it should be noted did happen here last year when Ferrari managed to lose the race from a 1-2 position, even if it was there after a lot of radio squabbling...

Hard tyre order

1. Mercedes 1m38.900s 16 laps
2. McLaren 1m39.622s 5 laps
3. AlphaTauri 1m39.714s 9 laps
4. Racing Point 1m40.303s 14 laps
5. Renault 1m40.502s 10 laps
6. Ferrari 1m40.705s 12 laps
7. Alfa Romeo 1m41.352s 12 laps
8. Williams 1m41.514s 13 laps
9. Haas 1m42.659s 10 laps
10. Red Bull N/A

Behind Mercedes, Red Bull seems to have work to do, but may not be in as much trouble as it looks in the tables presented here. Its big concern is being down the order on single lap pace today, and yet another RB16 spin, but being down compared to others on the softs shouldn't matter if the team can get through Q2 on the mediums - which Pirelli expects the leading squads to do.

Interestingly, there is somewhat of an extra risk in doing that this weekend given the long run to Turn 2 from the grid, which means the cars on the softs will have a grip advantage off the line. There was a similar situation at Mugello, which meant Mercedes opted to refit the softs at the red flag - to ensure it stayed ahead at the first corner. Back to this weekend and the degradation on the softs means that rubber will likely quickly become an issue against cars starting on the mediums, even if those on the red-walled tyres were able to steal ahead as the lights go out.

"FP2, I think we could have done a bit better, but we were testing a few things out," said Verstappen. "Some worked, some didn't, so it gives us a few ideas for tomorrow. It will be tough in qualifying to be in P3. In the race, it looks a bit more competitive, so I'm happy about that, but yeah, there's still a bit of work to do to make sure we are still P3."

When asked which teams he sees as Red Bull's biggest threat, he replied: "Clearly I think Renault. So far today they have been very competitive, and you never know who else."

Verstappen is right, Renault should be very encouraged by its showing today. The track is similar in downforce specification requirements to Silverstone, where Renault also shone in Friday practice. The trick will be carrying that pace forwards over the weekend - as it did in Belgium but not in Italy. This is critical given the packed nature of the order behind Mercedes. It's also why Renault's chief race engineer, Ciaron Pilbeam said the team will "remain realistic for tomorrow and Sunday".

Racing Point also looks to be in the mix with Renault (and potentially Red Bull), while McLaren has work do on its race pace judging by these tables. But the orange squad was pleased in terms of how the MCL35 is handling compared to Mugello, and with how it recovered from the damage caused by Sainz's shunt - which meant changing the whole rear end of his car ahead of FP2.

Ferrari looks good in terms of pace on the mediums, but its average is from a very short stint, so we must again consider fuel loads, and its one-lap pace was nothing to shout about (other than for those tifosi remaining frustrated at the SF1000's pace deficit). Again, this shows how far Ferrari has fallen since the high-watermark of Sochi qualifying a year ago. Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel were surprised by the car's pace, but say there's work to be done on its handling balance.

Williams bounced back from Latifi's crash, with the team's head of vehicle performance, Dave Robson, saying the car was "quite badly damaged considering that the incident was fairly innocuous". It looks to be in there on race pace with Haas, and on one lap pace with Alfa Romeo.

So, another Friday is in the books, and judging by what took place at Sochi today, Mercedes' rivals will need its drivers' erratic form to continue through the rest of the weekend.