Is this the most unpredictable but least dramatic Dakar Rally in recent history?

As the Dakar Rally field arrives at the Riyadh bivouac for a much-needed rest day, it’s almost impossible to predict who will emerge victorious in the Ultimate category in a little over a week’s time.

In the opening week of the event, four different manufacturers have already shared wins across the first six stages: Ford (twice), Toyota (twice), Mini and Dacia. Four drivers from as many brands have led the overall classification, and the top 11 are covered by less than 30 minutes at the halfway point. For a category that has often felt one-sided in recent years, this represents remarkable competitive balance.

While the bikes class has thrived on close multi-manufacturer battles since Dakar moved to Saudi Arabia in 2020, with Honda ending KTM’s dominance and Hero rising as a genuine threat, the cars division has generally lacked the same variety. Last year, Toyota swept the opening week, and only Henk Lategan and eventual winner Yazeed Al-Rajhi ever led the rally. By the rest day, the top 10 were separated by more than 1h30m, with major names such as Carlos Sainz Sr and Sebastien Loeb already out.

Earlier editions of the Dakar in Saudi told a similar story. Rather than one manufacturer dominating, it was usually one driver head and shoulders above the rest. In 2024, Sainz won by 1h20m. In 2022, Nasser Al-Attiyah led from start to finish without surrendering the lead once. There were also rarely any lead changes in 2021 and ‘23, when Stephen Peterhansel and Al-Attiyah won respectively.

So why is the 2026 Dakar so closely-fought? The answer lies in a combination of technical evolution and regulatory refinement, plus the usual nuances caused by route changes.

Dacia and Ford were always expected to close the gap to Toyota in their second Dakar campaigns, especially in a category governed by torque sensors, but the new route and sporting regulations for this year have also played a role in bunching up the field. The decision to drop the 48-hour chrono stage in favour of more traditional marathon rules have mixed things up, with drivers no longer having an incentive to slow down and manipulate starting position. In fact, the Prologue-style rules have added a new variable, giving top finishers from the previous day an advantage on select stages.

Yet the defining feature of this Dakar has been the dramatic fluctuation in daily performance. Ford has probably seen the biggest deviations of all, with the Blue Oval winning one day and then finding it outside the top 10 the next. While Mitch Guthrie inevitably lost time opening the road after his breakthrough stage wins, the inconsistency of his more experienced team-mates has been harder to explain.

Watch: Dakar 2026: Stage 6 Extended Highlights

To be fair to Ford, it’s not the only one whose performance has swung wildly in Dakar. For the most part, the trend can also be witnessed at Toyota, as demonstrated by the performance spread of each manufacturer’s best factory finisher across the opening stages.

Best factory entry from each manufacturer

*only one finisher inside top 10

While Toyota still boasts the strongest average result, it has become too reliant on last year’s runner-up Lategan, who is its only representative in the top 10. Saood Variawa and Joao Ferreira remain outside contenders, but both face a deficit of more than half an hour with seven stages still to run. Ford, on the other hand, can still count on all four of its factory drivers heading into the second week.

Punctures have further amplified the randomness, particularly in the opening days of Dakar, when drivers traversed through more sandy and rocky terrains in the western regions of Saudi Arabia. The dunes in the last two stages have provided respite, but some drivers can’t help but think this event has become something of a lottery.

Despite all this unpredictability, the Dakar has lacked its usual sense of drama. There have been no major controversies or accidents like the ones that dominated the previous editions of the event

"On Tuesday, we had a total of nine punctures. It's unbelievable. I think that's a record in three days," lamented Lategan after Stage 4. "I was lost. I didn't know what to do on the rocks, whether to slow down or not, attack or not. On Wednesday, I decided to forget all that and just go for it. It's a lottery anyway. We got through the rocks today, we could attack, and we made two small navigation errors, but everyone must have had some. Every time we get a puncture at the rear…I think it happens when the front wheels lift the rocks. It's unpredictable. We played Russian roulette today!"

BF Goodrich has introduced new construction tyres this year, but its influence on the spike in punctures remains unclear.

Dacia has been affected the most by punctures so far, with Loeb going as far as saying that his tyres were giving up even when he was driving at 20% of his car’s capability.

Loeb and his rivals have suffered a "lottery" of punctures

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Ironically, despite all this unpredictability, the Dakar has lacked its usual sense of drama. There have been no major controversies or accidents like the ones that dominated the previous editions of the event. Nearly all pre-rally favourites are still in the hunt, with only Al-Rajhi withdrawing from the event and a small group of lead drivers like Guillaume de Mevius dropping completely out of victory contention. The absence of serious accidents is, of course, a positive development, but it has also stripped Dakar of some of its raw edge. While no one wishes to see the violent rollovers that claimed Loeb and Sainz last year, Dakar has traditionally thrived on such extremes.

It would be interesting to see how drivers approach the second week of Dakar. In 2023, when then-Toyota driver Al-Attiyah had a commanding buffer of a full-hour after the opening eight stages preceding the rest day, he practically took his foot off the throttle and cruised to the finish, even as Prodrive’s Loeb marched on him in a valiant attempt to score his maiden win.

With so many drivers now in contention, and just 10 minutes separating the leading trio, restraint is no longer an option. Ford, Dacia, Toyota and even Mini are set to turn up the wick in what could become a thrilling conclusion to one of the most competitive Dakars in recent memory.

Al-Attiyah holds a slim advantage going into the second week - but the fight for victory is wide open

Photo by: A.S.O.