How COVID-19 has thrown MotoGP silly season wide open

It is impossible to make a best guess about the impact the COVID-19 outbreak will have on the professional sporting landscape in general, but the signs coming from the various disciplines are alarming to say the least.

With practically all activity currently on standby and total uncertainty regarding when and how anything can resume, the majority of experts seem to be in agreement that outside of the devastating loss of life caused by the virus, the virus' biggest impact will be on the global economy.

At the elite level of football it is unlikely that we will see recent obscene transfer fees in excess of £100 million repeated, at least in the short to mid-term, whilst in Formula 1 McLaren CEO Zak Brown has warned that four teams could disappear if the crisis wasn't "handled the right way".

Of course, MotoGP is not immune from a similar threat to its well-being and nor are the riders, who one way or another will be affected by the austerity measures already announced by the majority of factories and teams. A decent gauge of financial muscle is always the rider market, which according to sources will also undergo something of a shake-up.

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Back in February, Honda signed Marc Marquez up until 2024 in what is surely the most lucrative contract in the history of the sport. It is always risky to speculate on figures, but it is not outrageous to suggest a figure close to €20 million for each of the four years, which depending on bonuses could easily add up to a contract worth €100 million in total.

Yamaha have also tied Maverick Vinales up until 2022, with Fabio Quartararo set to move into the factory team next year until the end of the same term. Suzuki meanwhile has handed two-year deals to Alex Rins - announced on Sunday - and his team-mate Joan Mir, whose own deal is expected to be announced soon.

"I think it is actually worse to have signed or renewed with a rider for a certain figure that, possibly, in future you might not be able to pay" Paolo Ciabatti

All were locked into new deals before the outbreak of the pandemic that has since kept the MotoGP paddock locked down at home.

Ducati, meanwhile, are only tied to their current line-up until December, which is when Andrea Dovizioso and Danilo Petrucci's contracts expire, with Pramac's Jack Miller and Francesco Bagnaia, and Avintia's Johann Zarco also under consideration. Some might view the fact Ducati doesn't have its longer-term plans finalised as being at a disadvantage, but Ducati Corse's Sporting Director Paolo Ciabatti argues that the opposite is true as budgets are certain to be reduced when the racing does finally resume.

"This crisis will have a huge impact on the economy of the whole championship," Ciabatti told Autosport. "So, I think it is actually worse to have signed or renewed with a rider for a certain figure that, possibly, in future you might not be able to pay."

It can be assumed from this comment that any offer to Dovizioso will be shy of the Italian's current €7m base package. As for Petrucci - who earns more like €700,000 a year plus bonuses - it is unclear whether there is an offer on the table at all.

Speaking to Autosport, Suzuki Team Manager Davide Brivio said: "We will have to see how we all come out of this situation but it is clear that the riders will have to adapt to a new scenario and make an effort."

Meanwhile, Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta admitted recently to the Spanish radio station 'Onda Cero' that he expected "all the riders will have to renegotiate their contracts downwards, not only those who have not renewed".

"These agreements are always signed foreseeing normal circumstances, but this is a force majeure situation and it changes everything," he said. "I don't think there is going to be any problem because everybody understands the situation."

It was around this time of year, in the middle of April, four years ago that Ducati confirmed the signing of triple champion Jorge Lorenzo on a €25m deal for the 2017 and 2018 seasons. It was a risky move at the time from both a sporting and economical standpoint, and when the Spaniard departed in 2019 the money men in Borgo Panigale decided to adopt a more measured policy when it came to the salaries of its top earners. The result was a reduction of its overall annual spend on rider salaries from approximately €21m in 2017 and 2018 to less than €9m in 2019.

In 2020, Ducati was due to make a similar outlay, but the current period of inactivity will inevitably mean less pay for both Dovizioso and Petrucci, just as it will for the rest of the grid.

Rider contracts are based around two main concepts. The first is related to their participation in races and in the majority of cases this makes up around 70-80% of their total wage. The other 20-30% corresponds to promotional activities that the rider must fulfil over the course of the contract.

A rider can miss a stipulated number of races without being penalised if the motive for the absence is an injury, although this depends on the nature of the injury and how it occurred (an injury picked up during a grand prix is not considered to be the same as a motocross training injury, for example).

The teams Autosport has spoken to all agree that, given the exceptional circumstances, the normal thing to do is to speak to each rider individually and negotiate, although everything will depend on the number of events that do take place, should the season get started again.

The continued uncertainty surrounding the championship is also throwing up unexpected situations, such as the one encountered by Alex Marquez. The Spaniard's deal with HRC is for a single season only, with the idea being that he would have to earn an extension. It is assumed that if there is no racing this year Honda will extend his contract, most probably until 2022, in line with the rest of the grid.

With Marc Marquez guaranteed until 2024, you have to think that the last thing the Japanese factory will want to do is get rid of his younger brother, whose inclusion in the team is thought to have been a key factor in Marquez's latest contract. Firstly, we are talking about the current Moto2 World Champion and secondly, it would be absurd to risk unsettling the team's star rider.

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"What I have realised is that there are two current tendencies [from the teams]: those who are being driven by impulse and those that are waiting for the riders to get back on their bikes, should that actually happen," Homer Bosch, agent to Pol Espargaro, told Autosport.

The factors that will decide who gets to ride the second SRT Yamaha is complicated given that one of the leading candidates is a certain Valentino Rossi

Falling into that second group are Petronas SRT, who will have two Yamaha M1 machines in 2021 but at this moment in time no riders on board, with Quartararo replacing Valentino Rossi in the factory team and Franco Morbidelli yet to renew.

"We would love for Franco to stay because he is a consistent top five finisher, he is close to the podium and eventually he will be up there," Yamaha Petronas Team Director Johan Stigefelt told Autosport. "The thing is that we wanted to see him on track again."

And what happens if there is no racing this year? "Franco is our safest option," answers Stigefelt, a remark that suggests the M1 will almost certainly stay in the 2017 Moto2 champion's hands.

When asked about the factors that will decide who gets to ride the second bike, things get more complicated given that one of the leading candidates is a certain Valentino Rossi.

"That is another story, which we still haven't even started to discuss," Stigefelt concludes, evidently conscious that - once again - the key to the market as it stands is held by the number 46...