How critical qualifying tactics will shape F1's birthday race

Another Formula 1 race at Silverstone and, again, tyres are one of the main talking points after the opening practice sessions for the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix.

But, whereas last weekend the rubber discussions ended up centring on the dramatic tyre blowouts that really enlivened the end of the British GP, this time it's all about the wider strategy options facing the teams. The softer tyres Pirelli has made available for the second Silverstone event also has the possibility to impact the arrangement of the grid and therefore the race itself.

On what was another hot, but less windy day at Silverstone compared to a week ago, how the teams used their fixed amount of tyre sets available became critical. This is because the soft - the C4 rubber that was not used last weekend - is not only thought to be a pretty tricky race tyre, but there are question marks about its potential over one lap too.

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That was clear to see in the overall lap times (below), where Lewis Hamilton led the way for Mercedes on the mediums - while Valtteri Bottas set his best time on the softs but ended up 0.176 seconds adrift. Essentially, the softs are quicker at the start of the lap, but they tend to give up by the time the drivers arrive at Stowe, and the medium has the advantage from there through the various sections of Club to end the lap.

Overall fastest times in FP2

1. Hamilton (Mercedes) 1m25.606s
2. Ricciardo (Renault) 1m26.421s
3. Verstappen (Red Bull) 1m26.437s
4. Stroll (Racing Point) 1m26.501s
5. Leclerc (Ferrari) 1m26.812s
6. Norris (McLaren) 1m26.867s
7. Kvyat (AlphaTauri) 1m27.002s
8. Grosjean (Haas) 1m27.294s
9. Russell (Williams) 1m27.320s
10. Raikkonen (Alfa Romeo) 1m27.535s

Red Bull's Alex Albon said, "let's see what everyone does tomorrow but I think it's quicker to run on the mediums than the softs", and so it seems more than likely that we will see a rather different qualifying session to usual.

It would be logical to expect every driver in Q2 to attempt to get through to Q3 on the mediums because, as Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes' trackside engineering director, explains "most teams will try to avoid that tyre in the race". The softs are so delicate that they require management from effectively the first lap of a stint, so the teams know they risk giving away time if they have to run them for any considerable length in the race.

The problem facing the entire grid equally - coming into the weekend at least - is that they all have the same amount of each compound available to them, per F1 2020's unusual sporting rules thanks to the pandemic, and this is stacked heavily towards the soft (of which each driver had eight sets going into the weekend). Only two sets of hards can be used, and three sets of mediums.

If the drivers at teams at the back of the field feel they are better off trying to get into Q2 on the mediums and have nothing to lose, this could throw a curveball at the teams in front of them in the typical overall car performance stakes. But, again, the limited number of mediums will be crucial and may discourage this. Only the McLaren and Renault drivers have their three new sets of mediums left - for reasons that will become clear shortly.

"Everybody ran the same tyres [the softs] in the morning session, but we have done something different with our tyres compared to most others in the afternoon, and it will be interesting to see how the consequences of that shake out" Renault's Ciaron Pilbeam

Drivers thinking about going for their Q3 runs on the mediums may also be thwarted by a lack of new sets available.

It has been suggested that the hard tyre will be the best race tyre, which is why every team except Renault avoided the white-walled rubber (the medium from last weekend's race) on Friday. The softer step for the 70th Anniversary race means a two-stop strategy is predicted - compared to the one-stopper than is typical at Silverstone. The failures induced by a combination of the loads generated by F1's fastest-ever cars and pushing stint-length to the limit last Sunday will also be a heavy consideration.

By running the hard tyre on Friday, Renault's Daniel Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon only have one new set of that rubber left, which would appear to rule them out of running medium-hard-hard as a strategy. It is possible the team expects to qualify in Q2 on the softs and abandon that tyre early, and a wild gamble on a one-stopper can't be ruled out...

Nevertheless, Ricciardo's lap to go third overall in FP2 was eye-catching, and he feels that pace, a "big step" found with a set-up change, is genuine compared to Renault's opposition.

"Everybody ran the same tyres [the softs] in the morning session, but we have done something different with our tyres compared to most others in the afternoon, and it will be interesting to see how the consequences of that shake out through the rest of the weekend," said Renault's chief engineer Ciaron Pilbeam.

At the front, as ever, Mercedes seemed to enjoy a much calmer Friday compared to a week ago, with Bottas explaining "the car felt more comfortable than in the race or in qualifying [last weekend], so the balance already feels pretty much there".

The team applied the data it gathered on its way to the unexpectedly dramatic victory last Sunday, knowing that conditions aren't expected to change as dramatically as they did between Friday and Saturday at the British GP. That said, it should be noted that the wind picked up in the afternoon today, and can always be an unpredictable factor at Silverstone - as Lance Stroll and Kimi Raikkonen found with their offs at Becketts late in FP2.

"It's been generally a good day," said Hamilton. "We had good understanding, good findings from last week, and I think made some small adjustments which have cut off a millisecond here, a millisecond there. It's been positive in general, and the tyres have been very soft, but they're fine."

Average pace on medium tyre long runs in FP2

1. Mercedes 1m31.070s (9 laps)
2. Red Bull 1m31.461s (6 laps)
3. Racing Point 1m32.130s (15 laps)
4. Ferrari 1m32.160s (7 laps)
5. AlphaTauri 1m32.328s (10 laps)
6. Alfa Romeo 1m33.046s (13 laps)
7. Williams 1m33.051s (14 laps)
8. Haas 1m33.348s (13 laps)
*Renault and McLaren did not run the mediums in FP2

Looking at the average pace comparison on the medium tyres (above), Red Bull was not quite as close to Mercedes in FP2 today compared to last week. In fact, the gap between Max Verstappen's run over six laps and Bottas's run over nine was 0.391s, which compares to the 0.359s gap between Verstappen and Hamilton during the second stint in the British GP.

So, as he predicted in farm animal terms, Verstappen looks to be in for another lonely race behind the two Mercedes, which were also thought to be running a slight step behind on engine mode power in FP2 - where all the usual caveats apply when looking at the times.

But, it's important to note that that 0.359s average loss translated into only a 14.1s gap between Hamilton and Verstappen when the first puncture struck at the end of the race last weekend. If it ekes out to a similar size gap again this Sunday, then Verstappen will again remain a problem for Mercedes in terms of its tactical options should something go awry.

McLaren is another outlier because it only ran the soft tyres today and, as a result, it has all strategic options available for qualifying and the race

Behind the leaders, Racing Point again looks strong, but Ferrari appears to have improved significantly compared to this stage last week. On the soft tyre averages in FP2 for the British GP, which is the medium this weekend, Ferrari lagged behind many of its rivals on an average of 1m34.368s, which it improved to 1m32.160s on what is the medium for this event.

But Charles Leclerc explained this still wasn't what Ferrari, which had a late FP2 engine failure on Sebastian Vettel's car that will now be investigated back at Marenello, had been expecting.

"The car balance feels pretty good, it's just the general performance which is not as good as we had hoped for on the medium," he explained. "There are still a few things to work on in view of qualifying tomorrow with the aim of going through Q2 on medium tyres, which we think a lot of cars will try to do.

"Anyway, it'll be very interesting to see what compound everyone will start the race on and it should be an unpredictable race with many different strategies."

In terms of the medium tyre averages, AlphaTauri heads the back of the midfield, with Williams looking good against Haas and only just beaten by Alfa Romeo on a very similar stint length.

McLaren is another outlier because it only ran the soft tyres today - but the team is trying to understand a weakness it feels it has on that tyre, and as a result it at least has all strategic options available for qualifying and the race.

"A bit of a strange Friday for us," said Carlos Sainz Jr. "We elected to commit to the whole Friday running the soft tyres trying to save the mediums and hards for later in the weekend and trying to figure out really what is best.

"We have a car that at the moment is struggling a bit more on the softest range of tyre so we wanted to see what we could do, what we could learn, and from there onwards make sure that we take the right decisions going into the weekend."