The key areas to expect gaps to close in 2021

Such is the relentless pace of Formula 1 that even as the flag dropped in Abu Dhabi on 1 December 2019, senior engineers were steering their thoughts towards the first test of 2020, a mere 80 days away. The design 'freeze' for that test would be around Christmas, although many of the larger and more complex parts would be well into production by then. The monocoque, for example, would be nearing first-stage completion to allow enough time for the rigorous impact and strength tests that must be passed before the car hits the track.

Since the biggest technical changes in decades are coming in 2021, the regulators rightly decided on continuity for 2020 and as such the cars we will see this season will be evolutionary. This does bring some respite to the workload. For example the complex front wings, which take several weeks to manufacture, can generally be carried over for initial testing, giving the aerodynamicists, designers and production departments valuable time to refine a superior design for the latter part of testing - or, if confidence is high, maybe even the Australian race.

So if we're looking at an evolutionary year, and the winter break has been so short, can we expect a change in the pecking order? Luckily for us the answer may well be yes. Stability of regulation has many advantages. For the fans the primary one is that it generally closes up the field. If one is to believe that for any set of regulations there is one supreme answer then, just as it's believed that an infinite number of monkeys set to work on typewriters would eventually reproduce the works of Shakespeare, time should see a convergence toward this ultimate design.

Indeed this is the case and it's been well illustrated in the power units in recent years. In 2014 the dominance of both the Mercedes engine and its management of the complex new electrical systems that made up the hybrid system left others in its very distant wake. Five years later it may be argued that Ferrari, left behind at the start of the new formula, has not just caught up but surpassed certain aspects of the Mercedes performance.

It's hard to believe that yet more efficiency will be found but I believe it will, even though we're now entering the seventh year of these regulations. Unfortunately, a change to the sporting regulations for 2021 which will remove the limit on the fuel consumed during a race goes against this laudable principle

What this means for fans is that we can expect a season where the performance gaps edge slightly closer and this promises some extremely close racing at the front. It would be nice to think that the Mercedes/Ferrari/Red Bull triumvirate could be joined by at least one of the midfield teams, and it would be great if Williams shook off the monkey that has been on its back for the past two years.

Given stable rules, what are likely to be the technical talking points of 2020? I suspect it will be more of the same. Aerodynamically there will still be a plethora of ever more sculpted devices designed to push the front wheel wake out to avoid it having a negative impact on the downforce-producing devices further downstream on the car. As last year, this will focus on bulk airflow management from the front wing, assisted by various deflectors and vortex generators in the bargeboard area. The complexity of this area makes the term 'bargeboard' rather a misnomer these days, perhaps 'filigree devices' would be more apt.

On the chassis I don't expect anything revolutionary. Various components will become outlawed at the end of 2020 for reasons of cost and policing ability, so the returns on developing these areas will be short-lived. Geometric ride-height adjustment with steer or speed will continue to be an area showing ingenuity and is transferrable to 2021, so it will continue to receive attention.

Turning to the power unit, it's hard to believe that yet more efficiency will be found but I believe it will, even though we're now entering the seventh year of these regulations. Unfortunately, a change to the sporting regulations for 2021 which will remove the limit on the fuel consumed during a race goes against this laudable principle. We'll also see additional fuel being used to generate electricity for later use (when the performance gained from that electrical power exceeds the penalty for carrying the mass of the extra fuel).

Of course a major talking point in F1 is tyres and I personally felt that Pirelli was unfortunate when, at the end of last year, teams collectively rejected the developments the tyre supplier had planned. The new tyre construction was aimed at making the stress distribution in the contact patch more even; in turn, that would allow lower pressures to be run, ultimately opening the way to softer compounds. Instead, since Pirelli has to anticipate the greater aerodynamic loadings that car developments bring year-on-year, reverting to the 2019 construction means pressures will actually be raised at many circuits. At Monza, for example, the fronts will go up 2.5psi relative to last year. While this may not seem a lot in road car terms, it's enormous in racing: teams will need to re-learn the tyre optimisations they may have felt comfortable with last season.

The final factor that will determine the competitiveness of teams this year is how they handle the very difficult balancing act of developing the 2020 car while devoting time to the very different beast needed for 2021. On top of that, teams are having to convert cars to test the new 18" wheels, which adds another burden to the already stretched design departments.

All in all, 2020 promises some close racing. But it may be that by the autumn we see a lower level of development from all but those chasing a closely fought position in the constructors' championship.