Why F1 might suddenly face an urgent engine-supply crisis

Listening to Aston Martin's V12-powered Valkyrie screaming its way around Silverstone in mid-November last year, my thoughts turned to engine supplier Cosworth and the dilemma of Formula 1's unhealthy reliance on car companies as we enter a decade of change within the automotive industry.

It never takes much turbulence to cause manufacturers to cast a bean counter's eye in the direction of F1, as recent events have shown.

Since the arrest of its chairman and CEO Carlos Ghosn in November 2018, Renault has endured unprecedented boardroom turmoil and tough trading conditions.

The appointment in October 2019 of former accountant Clotilde Delbos as Renault's interim chief executive raised eyebrows when she confirmed a deep review of the company's business would include its continued participation in F1.

While Renault F1's Cyril Abiteboul expressed confidence in receiving ongoing support, a difficult 2019 season for the Enstone team meant it faced the twin embarrassment of being beaten by sole customer McLaren and then losing that supply deal to Mercedes starting in '21.

The optics are that of a manufacturer unable to retain its customers and struggling to make the necessary breakthrough to win.

Meanwhile, at Mercedes-Benz, the announcement by parent Daimler in November that it would be seeking to cut 1000 jobs and set about saving €1billion by 2022, illustrated the industry-wide pressures caused by the accelerated move towards electric vehicles amid tougher-then-ever emissions targets.

Mercedes' F1 operation is robust, its racing successes guaranteeing strong revenues from F1's prize fund, healthy sponsorship and vital income for its Brixworth engine division thanks to the supply of engines to Racing Point, Williams and soon McLaren.

However, other factors could come into play in the years ahead, including the relevance of continuing in a sport that holds the internal combustion engine close to its heart.

At Honda, a return to the top step of the podium with Red Bull has eased the pressures the Formula 1 programme was facing but, as Jenson Button and Ross Brawn will happily tell you, when the core business comes under threat Tokyo head office can say 'sayonara' overnight.

If one manufacturer were to quit F1 the effect would not be dramatic, but if two were to go in a 2008-style downturn, spurred by the growing climate crisis and pressure from regulators to abandon ICE technology completely, F1 and the FIA would find themselves in a bind.

With no prospect of additional manufacturers developing the highly complex power units we see today, the balance of power would shift inexorably towards Maranello.

A decade ago, Max Mosley and Bernie Ecclestone agreed F1 needed an insurance policy when it came to engine supply, and such an approach would seem sensible. If the car industry skids on an ICE-induced crisis, F1 must be able to guarantee an ongoing supply of power units.

One solution could require any manufacturer exiting F1 to license their power units to an independent supplier. Some will remember the Playlife, Mecachrome, Supertec and Asiatech deals of the past, though none thrived.

Neverthless, while the likes of Cosworth can never contemplate an independently funded return to F1, the prospect of a Renault or Honda exiting F1 only to license their designs in return for a percentage of future profits seems like an elegant and much-needed solution in uncertain times.

One that even an accountant might like.