What kind of race to expect from Imola's F1 return

The Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari at Imola is the fourth of five new tracks hosting unexpected Formula 1 races in 2020, and it's the second (of three, with Turkey scheduled to come next, pandemic-depending) with previous experience hosting grand prix events.

So, that means there is some history to look back on when it comes to considering what kind of race to expect in the inaugural Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

The two most recent races at Imola, run under a different name of course, have gone down as classics - the 2005 and 2006 San Marino GPs. In both events, it was Renault's Fernando Alonso battling against Ferrari driver Michael Schumacher (although in the first, Kimi Raikkonen, the only 2020 driver with F1 race experience at Imola ahead of this weekend, had led from pole before retiring with a driveshaft problem on his McLaren).

Both the 2005 and 2006 San Marino GPs are famous for being tight, tense battles, with little overtaking taking place for the win. In both, the driver trying to hold on in front, Alonso in 2005 and Schumacher a year later, held on to triumph. Based on what was seen as the track action got underway at Imola on Saturday, and with a downbeat forecast from Lewis Hamilton, it could well be a similar case in tomorrow's event - the track's first F1 race in 14 years.

Compared to the championship's last visit, the track is now different. The 2006 era Variante Bassa chicane is completely gone, although a new version exists to the left of the back of the grid, only in use for motorcycle races held at the venue. The track is just inside the faster end of F1's 2020 track range, just 2.915mph slower (taking the pole lap average speeds as a reference) than the Red Bull Ring - sixth of the 11 venues F1 has visited so far in 2020.

"It's definitely not going be a great race circuit for us, being that it's so fast for us," Hamilton said after practice. "I mean, it's very narrow, it's going to be very difficult for people to overtake. There will probably be no overtaking in that midfield after Turn 2 [the first part of the Tamburello chicane]. Maybe down the main straight you'll see some overtaking."

But, as 2005 and 2006 proved, F1 doesn't need an overtaking fest to record a great race.

A good thing, then, that qualifying has set things up nicely for a tense battle for the win. Although, an important caveat to get in here is that those two races took place during F1's refuelling era, and before the Pirelli rubber introduced the current brand of careful tyre management generally needed to really be successful.

Valtteri Bottas took his fourth pole of the 2020 season on Saturday, as he continued Mercedes' unbeaten run against the clock this year. He overturned Hamilton's advantage from the single practice session and after the first Q3 runs.

Key to this was making sure he held onto his own advantages against his team-mate at some areas of the track, and improving in the areas where he had previously been weaker - specifically, the Tamburello chicane and the two Rivazza lefts.

"It's definitely not going be a great race circuit for us, being that it's so fast for us. I mean, it's very narrow, it's going to be very difficult for people to overtake" Lewis Hamilton

"I had some issues sometimes in Turn 2 with locking up, trying to brake too late," Bottas explained, when asked by Autosport what precisely were the "risks" he had alluded to taking when climbing from his W11 in parc ferme.

"Sometimes into the last two corners, the downhill braking, I braked too late, and that's why I lost a bit of momentum out of those corners, so it's just small things like that. There was no time to be wasted under braking, which I wasn't in places yet quite comfortable - but I'm glad I could get there eventually and in the last run for sure you're not holding back. You either go for it or go home. I'm glad it was a good-enough lap."

The nature of Imola's F1 return may well be set right at the start.

Watching the sole practice session 'trackside' from the seating areas above the pitstraight, it was clear the cars were not regularly running over the pole position grid spot, as the natural racing line takes them closer to the circuit's curved pitwall. This could leave Bottas at a slight disadvantage off the line - and it is also a lengthy run down to the braking point at Tamburello - (from which it was possible to hear gearchanges delightfully travelling back on the wind from cars that had long since raced on, during lulls in practice action).

"For sure it's maybe not as clean as some other places," Bottas said of his grid spot. "There are some different bits of tarmac on the grid in some places, so it's an unknown. That's something we're going to find out tomorrow."

Given the long run to the first corners, it also could be rather chaotic at the start, with the cars at times running in close, slipstreaming packs down to that turn early in practice. Whatever happens in the race, enjoy the sight of F1's fastest ever machines sparking their way spectacularly over Imola's bumps.

The two Mercedes cars and Verstappen will lead the head of the field off the line on the medium rubber. This gives them an obvious strategy advantage as it widens their pit window for the first stint and means they won't encounter the graining witnessed on the softs in practice.

It also reinforces how much pace this trio have in hand on the rest of the field, with Verstappen even able to get by on the harder rubber after missing much of Q2 when Red Bull was forced to change a spark plug at rapid pace.

The mediums are likely to be a slight disadvantage off the line compared to the rest of the top 10 starting on the softs, but not Portimao bad - with similar weather conditions (sunny and warm, perhaps with a few more clouds coming over) forecast for Sunday at Imola.

"[We'll] try and get more heat than last weekend," said Bottas. "I think the rain played quite a big part in Portimao and the new tarmac [too]. We will try everything we can. I think even though it could be tricky at the beginning of the race, there's always a reason why we go for the medium - that it is a better race tyre. But, we'll see."

Although the two-day weekend format inevitably meant the teams are missing some of the race-run data they would have collected across a normal practice arrangement, especially FP2, it was still possible to see how the squads got on with the C2, C3 and C4 Pirelli rubber this morning.

From there, a snapshot picture of form emerges - although the usual caveats about fuel load and engine modes apply, especially the former given many the variety of stint lengths the cars were prepared throughout the 90-minutes of practice.

Soft tyre order

1. Mercedes 1m19.727s 11 laps
2. Renault 1m19.790s 10 laps
3. Red Bull 1m19.979s 13 laps
4. Racing Point 1m20.083s 12 laps
5. McLaren 1m20.105s 12 laps
6. Ferrari 1m20.900s 11 laps
7. Alfa Romeo 1m20.929s 11 laps
8. Haas 1m20.996s 10 laps
*AlphaTauri and Williams did not complete a long run on the softs

On the soft tyres, Mercedes edged it, but not by much over Red Bull - with Renault apparently in between and also looking strong over the tyre it will start on (with Daniel Ricciardo at least, as Esteban Ocon was knocked out in Q2 and therefore has the freedom to start on whatever tyres he wishes from P12).

But it is trickier to compare from here given Mercedes didn't touch the hard rubber for a genuine long-run and Red Bull took the same approach for the mediums. Nevertheless, Mercedes appears to be stronger than everyone bar the in-form AlphaTauri squad on the mediums, and Red Bull was the same on hards.

Medium tyre order

1. AlphaTauri 1m18.485s 16 laps
2. Mercedes 1m19.210s 12 laps
3. McLaren 1m20.275s 11 laps
4. Haas 1m20.339s 9 laps
5. Racing Point 1m20.764s 7 laps
Red Bull N/A
Ferrari N/A
Renault N/A
Alfa Romeo N/A
Williams N/A
*Red Bull, Ferrari, Renault, Alfa Romeo and Williams did not complete a long run on the mediums

It looks as if a medium-hard one-stopper is the ideal strategy for the frontrunners - although the teams are generally lacking tyre data overall given the single practice session, and so this is not guaranteed.

Pirelli says the fastest strategy is a actually a one-stopper of soft-medium, but medium-hard seems more likely given the graining on the softs that occurred across the grid in practice (Mercedes was so surprised at how bad it felt, the team was left wishing it had run less on the softs in practice), and it didn't look as if there was much difference in performance terms between the two harder compounds. The big unknown is just how long they will last overall, so timing of the expected single stop will be critical when it comes to keeping pace up at the end.

Hard tyre order

1. Red Bull 1m18.928s 11 laps
2. Renault 1m19.523s 5 laps
3. Williams 1m19.774s 15 laps
4. Haas 1m20.027s 10 laps
5. Racing Point 1m20.483s 7 laps
6. Ferrari 1m20.584s 14 laps
Mercedes N/A
McLaren N/A
AlphaTauri N/A
Alfa Romeo N/A
*Mercedes, McLaren, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo did not complete a long run on the hards

Assuming the one-stop strategy plays out as expected, it seems logical to expect the usual result from the rest of 2020: Mercedes up front with Verstappen, the trio rocketing clear of the pack, as Hamilton is sure Red Bull will be close in the race.

In the pack behind, expect some teams to roll the dice with a two-stopper, even if it is slower on paper, just to try something different - and don't discount the safety car factor having the potential to shake things up.

In the pack, AlphaTauri should be really encouraged by its medium tyre long run pace, which backs up how good the car was in qualifying - as it took fourth and eighth on the grid, with Pierre Gasly ahead of Daniil Kvyat.

In the close battle for third in the constructors' championship, Renault looks strong on softs and hards compared to Racing Point, which has a track position disadvantage after both pink cars fell in Q2. McLaren's drivers are behind Ricciardo in ninth and 10th, but ahead of Ocon.

"I think even though it could be tricky at the beginning of the race, there's always a reason why we go for the medium - that it is a better race tyre" Valtteri Bottas

Towards the rear of the field based on the times outlined above, expect Williams (which felt it might have had two cars in Q2 if a brake-by-wire problem hadn't cost Nicholas Latifi momentum ahead of qualifying) to just have the edge on Haas, but to be fighting with Alfa Romeo - assuming George Russell comes back to the rest of Class C. Russell had a very strong race last time out in Portugal, but Williams cautions that it is still too early to tell if it has definitely solved its qualifying/race pace imbalance from the opening phase of the season.

Hamilton says Imola is "perhaps a little bit like Monaco in that sense [that leading out of the first corners is key to winning the race]", but not everyone agrees.

"I don't think we know for sure, but our feeling is [overtaking] won't be easy," said Williams' head of vehicle performance, Dave Robson.

"Not as difficult as Monaco, I don't think. But I don't think overtaking will be easy, so I think it could be a little bit more processional than people would like. But hopefully there'll be some strategies for the tyres that will shake things up a bit."