What race to expect in F1's "unique" and physical challenge at Mugello

Mugello is rapid from the off. Its lap begins with a lengthy blast down a meandering main 'straight', none of its 15 corners are technically low speed, and several of them will test Formula 1's drivers to their limits. This track is to be loved and feared.

The undulating course in the Tuscan hills is a MotoGP paradise, famous for its close races and for being the scene of big accidents.

F1 is only here as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, which caused the massive redrawing of the 2020 calendar, and offered track owner Ferrari a chance to celebrate its 1000th world championship race in style. As this piece was being composed, costumed performers practiced a prancing horse/Florentine flag waving display opposite the pits, before rehearsals concluded to pounding techno. The venue is pure theatre.

And it is here that F1 will have the ninth race of its 2020 campaign, under likely blazing skies on Sunday.

Mugello's undulating topography cannot be overstated, as it adds to the flowing and high-speed nature of the track. The pace of the place is key, both for the experience of the drivers in the cockpit - who will only touch the brakes six times each lap - and the fans watching on TV, and, for the first time this year and in limited numbers, from three of Mugello's grandstands.

Several of its corners stand out, "especially Casanova/Savelli, Arrabbiata 1, Arrabbiata 2," per MotoGP legend Valentino Rossi, who is "very jealous [of the F1 drivers], especially because we don't race in Mugello this year".

Ahead of the weekend, three-time F1 race winner Giancarlo Fisichella had suggested the drivers will reach 5G at the Arrabbiatas during in qualifying, at what he called "the most exciting and difficult part of the circuit".

The sequence does not disappoint. A bump in the middle of Arrabbiata 1 exposes the cars running very low to the ground, with the drivers leaning wide on the exit here as the cornering forces work the downforce massively - they just have to hang on to varying degrees. Any slight mistake, such as Lando Norris carrying too much speed on entry at one stage during FP1, has the potential to end in disaster given the narrowness of the track - which is the case all the way around.

For the drivers, this means three things - especially on race day: excitement, exhaustion, and mistakes being brutally punished.

Mugello's undulating topography cannot be overstated, as it adds to the flowing and high-speed nature of the track

"I have to say, this track is pretty intense - so fast and challenging, it's amazing to experience," said Lewis Hamilton, who finished the day with the second fastest time overall. "I love it! There's no time to play around here and it's one of the most physically demanding that I've driven for a while."

Renault's Daniel Ricciardo, fifth quickest on Friday, a day where the track's 1m18.704s previous F1 track record - set by Rubens Barrichello back in 2004 - tumbled, summed up the physical challenge that Mugello will present to the drivers.

"On one lap it's fun but even on the long runs, which are normally a lot slower, there's no holding back as it's all high-speed," he explained. "Turns 8 and 9 (Arrabbiata 1 and 2) are nearly flat out on high fuel, so it's quick and keeps you on your toes."

There will be no time for respite, other than the long pit straight. If drivers make an error, the grass and gravel traps lining the track are there to punish them, as Norris found out to his cost in FP2. He slid fractionally going through Poggio Secco, which was enough to dip his left-side wheels into the gravel and send him to the wall and out of the session.

"It's one of the first proper costly mistakes that I've made, almost since I started in F1," he said afterwards. "It's a bit frustrating, but at the same time it happens - it happens to everyone."

Overall lap times

1 Mercedes Bottas 1m16.989s
2 Red Bull Verstappen 1m17.235s
3 Renault Ricciardo 1m18.039s
4 Racing Point Perez 1m18.198s
5 AlphaTauri Gasly 1m18.244s
6 Alfa Romeo Raikkonen 1m18.385s
7 Ferrari Leclerc 1m18.400s
8 McLaren Sainz 1m18.651s
9 Williams Russell 1m18.843s
10 Haas Magnussen 1m19.113s

Valtteri Bottas set the fastest time of the day (above). Examining Rossi's suggestion of the most eye-catching sequence of corners for the drivers - Casanova, Savelli, Arrabbiata 1 and Arrabbiata 2 - his 1m16.989s lap over this section featured a brief lift at Casanova, with the rest spent with his throttle pedal nailed to the floor.

"It's great that F1 has created the opportunity to run here, it's such a unique track and so well suited to the current cars," said Mercedes' trackside engineering director, Andrew Shovlin. "There's a lot to learn with a new track, so we'll work hard overnight to make sure we've not missed anything. But it does look like we've had a solid start to the weekend."

What this "solid start" meant in terms of the long run averages is that, unsurprisingly, Mercedes looks like the team to beat this weekend. The Friday practice times can only ever provide a snapshot of the picture from the opening day of running, and as ever fuel loads and engine modes (which be in any setting pre-qualifying) will vary across the grid, but F1's best car hasn't suddenly lost its pace, despite its second shock defeat of the season coming via Pierre Gasly (and those Hamilton/Mercedes pitwall pitlane errors) a week ago.

Soft tyre order

1. Mercedes 1m22.569s 4 laps
2. Red Bull 1m22.788s 6 laps
3. Ferrari 1m23.222s 7 laps
4. Renault 1m23.471s 10 laps
5. Williams 1m23.476s 5 laps
6. AlphaTauri 1m23.778s 6 laps
7. Alfa Romeo 1m23.792s 11 laps
8. Racing Point 1m23.941s 14 laps
9. McLaren 1m24.197s 4 laps
10. Haas 1m25.350s 7 laps

Starting with the soft tyre order (above), Mercedes was ahead on Friday, but not actually by all that much over Red Bull, which got close to the ultimate fastest time today thanks to Max Verstappen's 1m17.235s effort being just 0.246s adrift of Bottas.

Interestingly, as can be seen below, Racing Point was ahead of both of F1's top two squads in the medium tyre averages, but it is way down on the soft - although over a much longer run on the red-walled rubber. Racing Point was also down the order on overall pace compared to Mercedes and Red Bull today, fourth vs first and second.

So, if for some random reason the race was to be held tomorrow it would have qualified behind them and Renault, and would struggle to get by (as we will get to).

Medium tyre order

1. Racing Point 1m22.426s 9 laps
2. Mercedes 1m22.528s 10 laps
3. Red Bull 1m22.638s 9 laps
4. Renault 1m23.375s 9 laps
5. AlphaTauri 1m23.486s 10 laps
6. Alfa Romeo 1m23.850s 8 laps
7. Williams 1m24.489s 7 laps
8. Ferrari 1m25.014s 16 laps
*McLaren, Haas did not complete a long run on the mediums

At this point it is also worth considering that the red flags - Sergio Perez caused the other one when he clumsily tagged Kimi Raikkonen when steaming into Turn 1 from the pitlane, with the Alfa Romeo sweeping ahead, and the collision leaving debris strewn across the track - disrupted the long running.

Mercedes suggested even the Norris stoppage 38 minutes in FP2 put its planned programme off a touch, while the Perez/Raikkonen kerfuffle briefly stopped proceedings with just under 15 minutes to go as the teams were discovering just what kind of tyre degradation they can expect on Sunday.

"I love it! There's no time to play around here and it's one of the most physically demanding [tracks] that I've driven for a while"Lewis Hamilton

The answer, again unsurprisingly, is: a lot.

The tyres, which are the C1, C2 and C3, the hardest in Pirelli's range, are going to be critical as a result of that wear. But at least at some squads the degradation was actually better than anticipated ("the tyres do seem to be holding up better than we expected," said Shovlin).

But the soft rubber does go off significantly after just one lap, which may tempt some teams into trying to get through Q2 on the mediums. The problem here is that the delta between the two softer compounds is slightly bigger than Pirelli anticipated, so anyone that does gamble runs the risk of not making it through to Q3 altogether and losing critical track position.

But in any case, it is highly probable that early stops to shed the softs will be needed for those that do start on them and they then go onto the mediums or hards (FP2 average pace on this compound below). Although the temperature at Mugello was high today and will be on Sunday (where nearby Florence is predicted to bask in 35-degree heat), the teams so far don't seem majorly concerned about the tyre failures seen in similar circumstances in the British GP.

Hard tyre order

1. Mercedes 1m22.528s 10 laps
2. Renault 1m22.847s 6 laps
3. AlphaTauri 1m23.376s 9 laps
4. Alfa Romeo 1m23.733s 6 laps
5. Williams 1m24.214s 7 laps
6. Haas 1m24.975s 9 laps
*Red Bull, Ferrari, Racing Point, McLaren did not complete a long run on the hards

As we've been hinting, overtaking is more than likely going to be a challenge in the race. There will be little chance for the drivers to get by during the twisty stuff, unless someone makes a mistake, but long DRS zone on the main straight offers some hope of moves into Turn 1.

As the cars have packed on downforce - and therefore, crucially, drag - compared to Monza, the DRS effect will be significantly enlarged than was seen a week ago. But the car behind will have to be following closely to have a stab at making a move into San Donato, and that's not easy at Bucine - the long, downhill left-hander that ends the lap.

Traffic will also inevitably be a problem in qualifying - and when it comes to stragglers in the race - as the track's narrowness means it won't difficult to accidentally impede. This was summed up by an incident early in FP2, when Bottas came across a slow Red Bull at the Luco left at the start of the lap and was caught unawares, locked up and had to abandon his lap.

A few teams had tough starts to the weekend. McLaren lost a heap of running thanks to Norris's crash, which kept him down at just nine laps completed in FP2. The team, which has brought a new Mercedes-style nose to Mugello, is also well down in the overall times compared to Monza a week ago (second then vs eighth today), where it had previously shone in low downforce trim.

Haas lost basically all of Romain Grosjean's FP2 running to an electrical problem, while Racing Point knows Perez will start one place further back on his qualifying result as a result of the Raikkonen incident.

In terms of Ferrari's form on its own asphalt, things look much better than at Spa and Monza - albeit very far from the front of the grid.

It is basically back in the compacted midfield, as it has generally been so far this season thanks to its power deficit and draggy car. It has managed to shine with unexpected strategies in earlier 2020 races - such as at Silverstone, which is a similar high-energy, high-downforce track - so that will perhaps be its best bet of delighting the limited tifosi allowed into Mugello to watch the action in the carbonfibre flesh.

Charles Leclerc did finish FP1 in third, but he put this down to familiarity with the track - where Ferrari completed what Leclerc called a "filming day" with its 2018 car back in June - as the rest got up to speed.

And this is a key point to end on. What is clear is that Mugello is pretty new to everyone in F1 - barring Ferrari's ownership advantage and the few drivers that have driven here in other categories and machinery before - so the drivers are still very much finding the limit at this stage.

Expect them to find time and performance in terms of both single lap and long run pace throughout final practice and qualifying. The aim for the 2020 F1 field is to now improve with every lap in what is a special track challenge - and probably a unique test given the circumstances that brought F1 to Mugello this year.