Why 2014 will define Vettel's career

"Right now, it's impossible to have any expectations."

What else could Sebastian Vettel say? This was his verdict after Saturday's catastrophically shortlived running in Bahrain, but even after a final day during which he completed a Red Bull pre-season record 77 laps it still stands.

We still don't really know what the ultimate potential of the Red Bull RB10 is. We still don't know what the ultimate potential of the Renault Energy-F1 power unit is. We still don't know what compromises will have to be made to a machine that looks aerodynamically very strong to ensure its problems are minimised.

All we can say definitively is that Vettel and Red Bull will have pulled off a minor miracle if they even finish the season-opening Australian Grand Prix on March 16, let alone doing so at a pace to challenge for points on merit. After all, Sunday's attempt to complete a very conservative race distance didn't succeed.

The RB10 has been tormented by myriad problems in testing © XPB

On track, there have been signs of promise from the Red Bull. On the few occasions glimpses were caught of it going at any pace, it could rattle merrily across the kerbs without significantly disturbing the poise of the car and, as Jenson Button pointed out earlier this week, in the fast stuff it doesn't lack for downforce. The trouble is, it just doesn't work for any convincing period of time.

Vettel has never experienced anything like this during his F1 career. The last time he went into the F1 season with no chance of challenging to win the season-opener was in 2008, his first full season when he was still with Toro Rosso. The question everyone is asking is how will he react?

Tempting as it is to buy into the idea that he's stropped his way through pre-season testing, a trail of toys in the wake of his pram like a sulking prima donna, this is not the case. As usual, when a team is under pressure tempers can get frayed, but by and large Red Bull has had more important things to do than get angry.

Like all great champions, Vettel has made his points loud and clear and got on with his job. Those who subscribe to the enfant terrible school of thought on Vettel, as if he's some stroppy teenager who somehow lucked into four world championships, should pay particular attention to what happens over the coming year.

Granted, he didn't exactly look delighted during his media commitments tonight, but would you be in his position? The team has worked flat out and, while making progress, has effectively got nowhere over the past couple of tests in Bahrain. That's not easy for anyone in the team to deal with, not just the man in the cockpit.

They have similar traits, but one faces the biggest test of all © XPB

It will be fascinating to see how Vettel deals with adversity. He's a sublimely fast driver, sharing with Lewis Hamilton the ability to make himself at one with the car and make it dance right on the edge of the laws of physics. That will remain even in a bad car. He's adapted well to changes during his career and the driving side of things should take care of itself. He will do what he can with the machinery.

But mentally, it's a different challenge. Hamilton also went through this in 2009, when after winning the previous year's world championship, McLaren supplied him with a dog of a car early in the season.

Many questioned how he would fare after two years in superb machinery, but while the opening race of the season is remembered for the lying to the stewards controversy (which the team had to bear much of the responsibility for) that led to Hamilton's exclusion, it mustn't be overlooked that his drive from the lower reaches of the grid to third on the road was superb.

Vettel might have it tougher than that, for at least Hamilton had a car that had a good chance of getting him to the finish in Melbourne. But what he has to show now are all the qualities that made him a champion. In the bad times, the relationship between team and driver is tested to its limit and strong characters are needed to help pull everyone through.

"Everybody is fine," said Vettel tonight when asked by the BBC's Tom Clarkson about the mood in the team. "It's not a good time because it's a difficult car to work on. You see that from other teams.

Red Bull completed 90, 594 and 937km in the three tests respectively © XPB

"If you have downtime, then depending on where the damage is, where the problem is, it's a big job to repair. That's why it takes a long time.

"Yesterday, we had two issues bad enough to stop us running the whole day. Today, we had some problems but we were running for most of the day. That just shows how different every day can be.

"But I'm happy that we did a lot of laps and there's a lot of things that we learned. Still, we need more laps, which we would love to get, but testing is over so we have to do more laps down under."

There is no question that things will get better, just as they did for Hamilton and McLaren in 2009. Together, they won twice in the second half of the season. Red Bull will start the year off the pace, but if the fundamental problems can be solved its inconceivable that it will be at the back for long.

As for the spirit in the team, it remains stretched. But as the saying goes, form is temporary, class is permanent. Red Bull has dominated for the past four seasons because it proved itself time and again to be the best team and will leave no stone unturned in turning the RB10 into a winner.

For now, Vettel has to keep his head down, keep doing what he was doing during the past few seasons and show he can lead a team in the bad times.

Worst of all for his rivals, he might just come out of the whole experience an even greater driver...