What trouble awaits Formula 1 in 2016?
New years bring new challenges, and rarely has that been more applicable to Formula 1 than in 2016. DIETER RENCKEN looks through the paddock and at what its inhabitants are facing
As Formula 1 approaches yet another new season there exists absolutely no doubt that it faces all the challenges of the past year, and then some.
Arguably the biggest hurdle F1 - once a global spectacle challenged biannually only by the alternating quadrennial Olympics and FIFA World Cup - faces is its drop from public consciousness as evidenced by plummeting TV and live audience ratings.
For proof look no further than F1's failure to stitch together a firm calendar. Just 70 days before the opener, question marks hang over the future of a race in the world's largest consumer market, the United States.
What use wooing Abu Dhabi and Bahrain when Austin is financially endangered? F1 has three primary stakeholder groups - governing body FIA, commercial rights holder FOM and the teams collectively - and, if all pulled in the same direction, it would be in a position to challenge the IOC and FIFA combined.
Currently, though, its ratings are shaded by those of Turkey's football league. Clearly enormous challenges lie ahead, compounded by each of the individual players facing issues of their own.
FIA
This year marks the midpoint of Jean Todt's second four-year presidency, and the Frenchman faces decision time, particularly regarding the legacy he will leave.
True, he may stand for another term - having recently admitted to this writer that the decision remains open - but either way he is acutely aware that F1 is in crisis. Hence the mandate given to him and F1 CEO Bernie Ecclestone during the most recent World Motor Sport Council meeting.
But the question is: why is a mandate even necessary? Surely the FIA should be in a position to govern without being granted a mandate?
The Engine Working Group was given until January 15 to table proposals on the future direction of power units, and thereafter Todt and co. may well impose regulations to open supply and reduce costs.
However, Ferrari and Mercedes are likely to challenge any major changes, so open warfare threatens.
Although Todt seems sanguine about a possible EU Commission investigation into F1's governance and revenue structures, the fact is that such investigations seldom leave all parties unscathed, so further issues could loom on this front.
FOM

For proof of the challenge facing the commercial rights holder as it attempts to halt F1's slide, look no further than (London's) The Times. Where Britain's largest broadsheet generally carried at least one F1 news story daily, it's been a fortnight since it was mentioned.
To compound matters, reigning double world champion Lewis Hamilton seemed too busy to attend major awards ceremonies, instead sending cheesy video messages.
A decade ago, in the opening week of the year there were three glitzy car launches in exotic venues, with test trucks simultaneously heading for Spain to start testing. These were all activities deserving of column inches, but since sacrificed on the altar of greed. Now, not a single launch date has been announced, with testing starting in five weeks.
During Ferrari's traditional Christmas media dinner, president Sergio Marchionne succinctly expressed the thoughts of the paddock when he said: "Ecclestone knows he is not going to be there forever, and maybe this is also connected to the future of FOM. The real challenge for Bernie is to get organised.
"We have a responsibility to deliver a certain level of sound management continuity of Formula 1 with FIA and with FOM."
As though sorting out his own succession plan is not taxing enough, Ecclestone needs to prepare for the EU Commission, face up to the Ferrari/Mercedes duopoly and stem waving interest in his life's work. In October he turns 86.
CIRCUITS

Will Austin's race happen this year? Russia's future, too, is said to be endangered after its first three grands prix failed to fully capture public imagination. Particularly as the rouble, like newcomer Azerbaijan's manat, is heading south due to oil prices, which show no signs of firming any time soon. Imagine how that affects F1's Middle East economies, too.
Will Germany stage a race in 2017 after the Nurburgring last year pulled out of the rotational deal it shared with Hockenheim?
Will Spain default in the medium term after Barcelona's city fathers announced a cut in future race subsidies? All these challenges (and more) face F1 on the circuit front.
TV NETWORKS
The biggest change here is Britain's switch to Channel 4 from BBC, a daunting act to follow after six years of consistently top-class free-to-air coverage without commercial breaks.
C4 could do worse than hire some BBC key people, particularly on the production, presenting and continuity fronts - but either way it faces a challenge in the face of waning public interest in F1.
PIRELLI
Apart from a fifth tyre compound and arguably the most complex tyre regulations in 65 years, the big news is that Pirelli continues as F1's sole tyre supplier until 2019 after Ecclestone announced an extension to the current deal, which expires this year.
Or does it? The three-year deal, due to be ratified by the WMSC in December, was not mentioned in subsequent media releases, and according to sources, was not discussed.
However, this writer hears that Pirelli agreed "bridge and board" commercial terms for trackside advertising with FOM through to 2020, effectively cutting out any other company for the next four years. Could that be the hold-up?
The move makes perfect sense given that F1's current commercial covenants expire at end-2020, but could incur the wrath of the FIA.
MERCEDES

The biggest challenge faced by the reigning champion is to stem the somewhat juvenile warfare between drivers Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, who hurl toys (and caps) with increasing frequency. 2016 marks make-or-break in this regard, and is likely to tax the management skills of Toto Wolff and Niki Lauda.
Then there is the question of engines - a major source of revenue for the team, but one due to be clipped should the FIA/FOM proposals of cheaper engines and/or independent supply be imposed.
January 15 will shed more light on the matter, but not on whether the team's domination will end anytime soon, as Wolff fears it could. For that F1 needs to await the first tests.
FERRARI
As the Italian team enters its second season under the iron-fisted management of Marchionne it is free of Fiat's commercial shackles, having been restructured in the wake of an IPO, and subsequent open trading which valued the company at around £7bn.
However, how this newfound value will benefit Ferrari directly remains open. The mooted entry of Alfa Romeo as supplier of badged Ferrari engines hinges on this factor.
On the political front, expect Ferrari to continue its attacks on FIA/FOM, with its regulatory veto providing the ammunition in all skirmishes, be they commercial, technical, sporting or regulatory.
Then there is the question of the underperforming Kimi Raikkonen, and his replacement. Will the Scuderia be able to prise Max Verstappen away from Red Bull?
WILLIAMS
The British team is in the third season of its five-year plan to regain former glory. While it is certainly on track commercially and organisationally, the next step is winning, and here the team is lagging conspicuously.
Expect Williams to keep its head below the parapet politically, yet play its cards shrewdly. The team can only benefit from the current battles, be they over cheaper engines, F1's governance or its revenue structure.
RED BULL

This will be a rebuilding year for Red Bull Racing, for which those halcyon 2010-13 years must seem aeons ago. It retains Renault engines, badged 'TAG Heuer', but will performance improve compared to the past two years, input of Swiss engine guru Mario Illien notwithstanding?
The lack of results - 2015 marked the team's first winless season since '08 - clipped Red Bull's political wings, with team boss Christian Horner increasingly championing the cause of independents, which is a far cry from the lofty attitude RBR previously projected. Constant public outbursts over its engine dilemma by all and sundry did not endear the team in the paddock, or amongst fans.
Is the saga over? This year officially marks the end of its Renault contract, with seemingly no viable alternatives on the horizon for 2017. So expect Red Bull to play the role of martyrs once more as the year progresses.
On the sporting front, will Daniil Kvyat be retained? Max Verstappen promoted? The latter would be on the basis Red Bull is able to retain the best young talent to burst on the scene in a decade.
FORCE INDIA
Expect Force India to continue leading the charge against F1's current governance and revenue structures at EU level if the current management remains in place, pending rumours that Diageo, owners of Johnnie Walker, wish to rebrand the team.
Autosport first broke news of the possibility of an Aston Martin-themed Mercedes engine deal - the German company is a stakeholder in the latter, and the 'James Bond' image would perfectly suit Johnnie Walker.
But the deal is far from done, with a variety of issues still outstanding. Expect, though, the cars to run in Johnnie Walker branding, likely the blue/gold of the brand's premium whiskey.
RENAULT, FORMERLY LOTUS

Many details remain unknown after the French company last month confirmed its purchase of a majority stake in the team it originally sold to enthusiastic venture capitalists in 2009.
The name of the team remains unconfirmed, with an announcement expected in mid-February. French sources refuse to rule out (alliance partner) Nissan branding/title. No word yet, either, on the team's management.
Strong, decisive leadership will surely be required to pull the team (and Renault's engine operation) out of the mire in which it currently finds itself. Expectations for 2016 are low.
TORO ROSSO
Revamped facility delivering is first car; new engine after switching from Renault to last year's Ferrari's power unit; blossoming driver line-up with an additional year's experience under their belts: that is the story of Toro Rosso in 2016.
The team's biggest challenge lies in retaining Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Jr within the Red Bull camp.
SAUBER
Same old, same old in 2016 - but a year of stability will do the Swiss team a world of good. The only real and present danger is the possibility of Diageo's deal with Force India, which would leave Sauber exposed in Brussels.
The drinks company will surely not wish to be associated with an EU investigation, which so far has been pushed by both of the midfield teams.
MCLAREN

If 2016 is a rebuilding year for Red Bull, it is doubly so for McLaren, which does not even have the luxury of basking in the reflection of recent titles. All hinges on Honda's performance, but even if the engine proves the class of the field (unlikely), the team still needs to overcome internal inertia to make it work.
Question marks continue to hang over the futures of boss Ron Dennis and racing director Eric Boullier, even if for no other reason than their personal chemistry appears out of kilter.
Ditto Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button: Will they really see out the season if Honda's power units prove no better - and what about 2017?
MANOR
No news, no interviews, no team principal after the departures of the teams' founders, no public appearances by the team owner, no idea even of the team's name after change was mooted late last year.
HAAS
The question is whether Haas will score points in its opening race. Getting there is half the work - and there seems little doubt that all basics are in place - but the big challenge will be harnessing cars designed and built by Dallara using Ferrari engines and operating out of a base in the British Midlands overseen by executives based in North America.
Add in Swiss and Mexican drivers, and the cross-cultural challenge facing F1's newcomer is enormous. Then comes the sophomore season, reckoned by those in the know to be even more punishing than year one.

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