How third cars would affect the driver market

You are a Formula 1 team principal faced with having to field a third car in 2015. Setting aside the financial and structural implications of doing so, what do you do in sporting terms?

Sign the best driver available would probably be the first reaction. There's merit in that approach, but given the already complex dynamic of two-car teams, the impact this has on the balance of a squad has to be taken into account.

As Lewis Hamilton quipped when asked how he felt about the possibility of a second team-mate to battle against within Mercedes during the Singapore Grand Prix weekend: "double trouble".

How you proceed as a team principal depends on myriad factors. If you were running Mercedes, you already have two proven topliners in their prime in Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, do you really need to chuck a third rooster into a hen house that has already proved fractious?

The answer is very likely no. So you can strike Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel off your wish list straight away.

The next step is to ask yourself what exactly the third car is for? In the bigger picture, it's there to ensure the grid is not too thin, but looking at it purely from a team perspective, there are two obvious approaches for a team like Mercedes.

It goes without saying that the car would need to be competitive and able to achieve results. Having a third bullet in the gun on a grand prix weekend would be of immense value.

Handling two drivers is often hard enough for teams © LAT

You only have to ask Toyota, which had the strongest car at Le Mans but failed to win after its two machines hit trouble, for evidence of how useful that extra entry can be.

But beyond that, the first option is to promote a well-regarded rising star as an investment for the future, creating a focal point for your young driver scheme.

Logically, for Mercedes, that would mean 19-year-old Pascal Wehrlein, recently appointed reserve driver. He has completed over 12,000kms in the simulator and earlier this month completed more than 500kms in a 2012 Mercedes, so the team knows what he is capable of.

Provided it sees the DTM race winner and 2012 Formula 3 Euro Series runner-up as having the potential to emerge as a contender for wins in F1, he would slot in well.

The second option is to go for someone with a good reputation as a development driver, who could focus on the technical side and effectively be a test driver with a race seat.

There are not many drivers who would fit that bill, but Anthony Davidson has a long and ongoing relationship with Mercedes. At 35, he still has life in him as an F1 driver and remains sharp through his LMP1 activities with Toyota.

He's quick too, something that he showed with some startling good qualifying performances for Super Aguri in 2007, notably in Bahrain and Turkey.

These are by no means the only two candidates for the roles, but they are the ones who already have the connections to Mercedes.

If you were Christian Horner at Red Bull, it would make sense to draw your drivers from the company's driver pool.

Sebastien Buemi, who had a solid three-year F1 career with Toro Rosso, is its reserve driver and could fill the glorified test driver role capably. But it would make more sense to promote the hugely promising Daniil Kvyat to the third seat.

This would mean that, were Vettel to leave any time soon, the Russian would already have settled in with Red Bull's a-team alongside Daniel Ricciardo.

As a knock-on effect, Toro Rosso already has Max Verstappen and has already given Jean-Eric Vergne the flick for next year. So barring a decision to keep the capable Frenchman, who has had a decent season, as a benchmark, it would face going into 2015 with a rookie triple whammy.

Red Bull would have plenty of talent to choose from © LAT

That means a choice of two out of three of Carlos Sainz Jr, currently leading the Formula Renault 3.5 standings, GP3 points leader Alex Lynn and Pierre Gasly, who is doing well in his rookie World Series campaign.

A fourth driver, DTM racer Antonio Felix da Costa, should also be thrown into the mix. He is still linked to Red Bull and there is little doubt he has the potential to do the job in F1.

Forecasting Ferrari's situation is complicated by the risk that Alonso will walk away from the Scuderia. But regardless of whether it needs a new lead driver, giving the third driver slot to Jules Bianchi would be a no-brainer.

The Frenchman has excelled with Marussia. While Ferrari would be taking a risk putting him into one of two cars without an intermediary step with a mid-grid team, a third car would be the perfect place for him.

The other interesting drivers who could be on the market are Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg.

Grosjean would be a great choice for McLaren for a third car, and could even be a contender for one of its lead two cars.

The only curveball might be Honda's influence. It would cost as much as $30million to run a third car, and were Honda to put some more cash in it could decide to place a Japanese driver at McLaren.

This is something it has a history of doing in F1. The main reason Williams lost its works Honda engines at the end of the 1987 season was the refusal to replace either Nigel Mansell or Nelson Piquet with Satoru Nakajima.

Later, when Honda returned to F1 for its third stint, it fielded Takuma Sato and went as far as creating a whole team to place him with after he was replaced by Rubens Barrichello at its works squad.

As to who Honda would choose, it's not as straightforward as it might seem. Kamui Kobayashi is a proven, experienced grand prix driver, but he was always a Toyota man. While he is no longer linked to Toyota, it's far from a foregone conclusion Honda would go for him, as some have suggested

In fact, the most senior Honda-affiliated driver in single-seaters is GP2 racer Takuya Izawa. Honda would love to have him in a third McLaren, but whether he is ready for the step into F1 would be another question.

Honda would love to have a Japanese driver like Izawa in F1 © LAT

From McLaren's side, there's also the possibility of a promotion for Stoffel Vandoorne. In a straight choice between him and Grosjean, you would go for the seriously fast Grosjean right now, but Vandoorne is looking ever more convincing as the GP2 season has progressed.

As for Hulkenberg, perhaps his hopes would rest on a return to Williams. He would be the best available driver for a seat alongside Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas, and would complete a formidable triumvirate.

The only question there is whether third driver Felipe Nasr, who is a decent driver and has built some experience in the car, might prove more attractive, especially if he can find some sponsorship dollars.

So that has addressed the situation with the five biggest teams, plus Toro Rosso. That leaves Lotus and Force India, both of which would have interest in drivers with budgets.

Were Lotus to lose Grosjean, it would be left with Pastor Maldonado and two vacant slots. Those would be ripe for occupation by drivers with backing behind them, unless the Genii Capital-owned Gravity Sports Management were to throw European F3 leader Esteban Ocon, another seriously good prospect, into one of the seats.

Force India, meanwhile, would likely continue its policy of fielding drivers capable of getting results.

But as Sergio Perez has shown, it is possible to align driving and commercial interests. Dani Juncadella, currently third driver, would be an option.

And if it wanted to go for proven ability, a third return to the team for Adrian Sutil might not be out of the question. As for a promising rookie, Caterham reserve Robin Frijns should also be considered.

Drivers like Esteban Gutierrez, who has shown flashes of his raw speed in F1 but still struggles to string it all together, Giedo van der Garde, Max Chilton, Marcus Ericsson all have backing behind them and race experience at the top level.

There are also people like Jolyon Palmer to consider. He will almost certainly win the GP2 crown and has the potential for a good commercial package, which would make him attractive.

None of the above is definitive, and it's still far from a foregone conclusion that F1 will end up facing this scenario.

But considering the permutations is a fascinating thought experiment. It would certainly give the team bosses plenty to think about.