How F1's new regulations have spread the field

You can always tell something from the first race of the season, and what the Australian Grand Prix confirmed is that Ferrari is, indeed, a serious rival for Mercedes.

But it also showed that regulation changes have led to the field being more spread out - even more than it was last year. A look at how the relative performance levels of the teams has changed paints a remarkable picture of just how strong that effect is.

For this study, we're using the fastest lap each team set over the weekend, expressed as a percentage relative to the outright pacesetter, and comparing that figure from Melbourne to each team's average from across the final four grands prix of 2016.

Obviously, since Lewis Hamilton topped qualifying in Melbourne, Mercedes is fastest overall and ranks as 100% in both metrics. But I've ranked my list in order of gain/loss, and by that calculation Ferrari has made the biggest step forward from last year.

Ferrari (-0.636%)
Late 2016: 100.962%
Melbourne: 100.326%

Everyone criticised Ferrari for promoting from within when it replaced technical director James Allison with Mattia Binotto. We don't really know who is responsible for the car concept, but the engineering team has certainly moved forward and the team looks a lot more professional than in the past few years.

The car is very good in race trim, which both Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen proved by trading fastest laps during the closing moments.

Haas (-0.383%)
Late 2016: 102.678%
Melbourne: 102.295%

For its second season in F1, Haas is doing a great job. I think you could say it surprised everyone, including many in the team itself, when Romain Grosjean qualified sixth.

The race didn't turn out as planned and Kevin Magnussen seemed to struggle all weekend, so these are the issues Haas needs to look into. But it has a good base to work from and the motivation to achieve it.

Mercedes (no change)
Late 2016: 100.000%
Melbourne: 100.000%

Once again, Mercedes has done a fantastic job. Even if the car is not the best in every circumstance - Ferrari had the edge on race pace last weekend - Mercedes is up there with the best, and to do this year after year is no mean feat.

But the key question is if everyone on the pitwall will keep their cool if under pressure from Ferrari? After having had such an advantage over the past three years, Mercedes has not had to do too much thinking on its feet.

Toro Rosso (+0.233%)
Late 2016: 102.564%
Melbourne: 102.797%

Toro Rosso has more or less stood still, which in the context of the rule changes is a positive. That said, it will have been slightly helped by moving from a year-old Ferrari engine to a latest-specification Renault power unit.

Since the Renault isn't at its full 2017 specification yet, there is also more to come on that side, and there will also be chassis developments coming soon because technical director James Key knows what he's doing.

Renault (+0.349%)
Late 2016: 103.042%
Melbourne: 103.391%

Last year, the Renault was a bit of a dog of a car and the team would have expected to have at least matched its performance. But not so. Jolyon Palmer had a troubled weekend but Nico Hulkenberg's seemed, from the outside, to go relatively close to plan.

Renault has lots of work to do because, in reality, it is still the third quickest of the Renault-engined teams and it's supposed to be the works squad. That won't sit well with the big bosses.

Williams (+0.790%)
Late 2016: 101.954%
Melbourne: 102.744%

Williams has also had a drop-off in performance, but the biggest problem is that, for the first few races at least, it looks like a one-car points-scoring team.

Lance Stroll definitely has potential and he will come on, but he needs the experience to learn how to push without going over the top. With Paddy Lowe now heading up the technical team, the future should be bright, but it will take until mid-season at least before we see meaningful effects from his input.

Red Bull (+0.833%)
Late 2016: 100.695%
Melbourne: 101.578%

It's a concern to see a major drop-off in performance - of not far off 1% - at a time when most people believed the aerodynamic rule changes would suit design guru Adrian Newey's area of greatest expertise.

By allowing Newey to work on the Aston Martin supercar development programme as well, maybe Red Bull is diluting his input. The team needs developments quickly or it will be left too far behind to offer a championship challenge.

Renault has some upgrades planned, and had to switch to its 2016-specification MGU-K for reliability reasons, but it's going to be a few races before things will improve in that area.

Sauber (+1.471%)
Late 2016: 103.454
Melbourne: 104.925%

That Sauber has dropped off dramatically was predictable from its performance in testing, and the fact that it has had to stick with the 2016 Ferrari engine.

Sauber had a troubled weekend with Pascal Wehrlein withdrawing and rookie Antonio Giovinazzi taking over on Saturday morning. He finished 12th, which doesn't sound great, but he could have done a lot worse.

I really rate Giovinazzi and believe he's a man for the future. If he keeps his nose clean and gets more opportunities in F1, he could just end up at Ferrari.

McLaren (+1.681%)
Late 2016: 102.258%
Melbourne: 103.939%

This is a very difficult time for a team that we all expected to be returning to the top four by now. The relationship with Honda has, to date, delivered nothing. McLaren has been sounding out other engine suppliers, but its desperation gives it a weak hand in such negotiations and it needs to avoid ending up with nothing. Sometimes, sticking with what you have and finding a way to make it work is the better solution.

The way McLaren operates, and the car itself, also need looking at. Too many things are going wrong in all areas, and not just with the spacer I spotted between the chassis and the gearbox!

Force India (+1.897%)
Late 2016: 101.552%
Melbourne: 103.449%

Force India will be disappointed with such a drop-off in performance, but it has been very good at defining a development programme and will be looking forward knowing that, with new sponsors and the cash from fourth place in last year's constructors' championship, the budget should be there to push on.

Both cars scoring points in Australia is a bonus, and that's a key objective if Force India is going to hang on to that fourth place.

Mercedes v Ferrari

It's great to see that the pounding around Barcelona Ferrari did wasn't all in vain. As I said during testing, this was the most professional I had seen Ferrari in a very long time.

Ferrari stuck to the programme whether or not the car was fastest, and was right up there every day across a range of tyres and fuel loads - and the victory in Melbourne was the fruit of that testing programme. But the one criticism I had did appear to come back to bite Ferrari in Australia.

This was that Ferrari didn't spend enough time running on the softer tyre compounds, and that focus on long-run performance is why the team didn't get the best from the car during qualifying. Then again, if you get the best from the tyres in those conditions, then qualifying performance will follow, and it's races that count.

That's why I would much rather be in Ferrari's position, knowing that a little tweak could unlock the one-lap performance. The race at the front was certainly close, but it was still a procession and nobody was close enough to attack on track. Since the new rules have made it even more difficult to follow other cars, it was always going to come down to pitstop strategy.

If this is how the races are going to unfold this season, it bodes well for those who can think on their feet. Australia showed that if you put Mercedes under pressure and needing to make a few quick decisions, its operational slickness can start to unravel.

Toto Wolff defended the strategic call, but everyone on the pitwall knew bringing Hamilton in as early as that would lead to him coming out behind Max Verstappen. Since the normal first stint was always going to be around the 22/23-lap mark, this meant Hamilton was going to have to make the pass on track. Verstappen wasn't going to be easy pickings, and the time Hamilton lost proved crucial.

Vettel's pitstop was perfectly timed because he stayed out until Ferrari knew he would exit the pits in front of Verstappen. That's what won him the grand prix. If Verstappen hadn't been in Hamilton's way, either of them could have won.

Valtteri Bottas showed he has the inherent talent to justify his drive with Mercedes. After all, Hamilton is one of the fastest in the pitlane and Bottas was able to stack up against him admirably. This was his first race with Mercedes and the last thing he needed to do was throw it in the wall. Give him a little time to come to terms with his new set of pressures and we might just see some sparks from the Mercedes garage.

The Mercedes in race trim was much the same as we saw in Barcelona testing: not as good as it was on new tyres and with low fuel. On high fuel loads, the balance seemed to go away and this led to earlier tyre degradation.

Hamilton complained as early as lap 11 of the 57 that he had no grip, and the car looked like it had lost its precision. So Mercedes has a very clear idea of what has to be worked on.

Ferrari did what it went to Melbourne to do by winning, but more will have been expected from Raikkonen. He was quick in testing and looked to be equal to Vettel, but that didn't happen when it counted. The pressure is now on him because Ferrari needs him to bring home big points for the constructors' championship.

As for Red Bull, it was off its game in Australia. We don't really know how much of a deficit the Renault engine is causing, but the drivers say the car is tricky to set up - and both made significant mistakes over the weekend. That suggests it's also tricky to drive.

Watching at Barcelona, I commented that the car lacked the 'wow' factor and I stick by that. I believed it would be there by Melbourne, but I haven't seen that yet. In testing, when the drivers were pushing it was the rear that was giving up. This is a situation that will bite you, and I think that's what happened to Daniel Ricciardo in qualifying.

As for the rest, they are in the 'B' championship. By lap six, the leader was 12 seconds clear of Felipe Massa in sixth. So two seconds a lap faster, and everyone behind Massa was lapped by the end of the race.

When you have regulation changes of such magnitude, this is the norm since it takes a couple of years for the smaller teams to catch up. You could say that this is rubbish and that Haas showed in qualifying that it's possible for a small team to mix it with the big boys - but, in reality, I guarantee you the Haas team has no better idea of why Grosjean was able to qualify sixth than it does of why Magnussen didn't get out of Q1.

Formula 1's new era

Looking at the situation in general, FIA president Jean Todt has finally come out of his winter hibernation and says he's worried about the competitive spread through the field getting larger.

I suppose this shows how detached he is from the real world, and I'd ask where he was when these regulations were being created. He's the man at the top and has a part to play in ensuring people were achieving their objectives when writing the rules.

These regulation changes have done nothing for the racing. They make the cars look better and faster, but as far as the racing is concerned, other than Ferrari mixing it with Mercedes, the spectacle is the same, if not worse, than 2016. That's not good.

Hamilton, on fresh tyres, didn't have a hope in hell of overtaking Verstappen on old ones, so that bit of the regulations hasn't worked either.

And if you need confirmation of the fact that there is a huge void between the haves and have-nots, everyone up to sixth was lapped at least once.

Will new owner Liberty Media have left Melbourne feeling excited, or is the proverbial ordure about to hit the fan in HQ? Time will tell, but the race at the front - and I mean the very front - was OK at best. We need depth of competition.

Ross Brawn has a difficult job on his hands, because when it gets into the rut of whoever is quick, with Ferrari, Mercedes or Joe Bloggs Racing winning every weekend, people will get bored. We want to see depth of competition and that is not what we have.

To fix it is not an overnight job.