MotoGP 2016 doesn't need Stoner

I read a stat the other day that nine riders have won a MotoGP race in the last nine seasons, since the start of the 2007 campaign. That is not, I think you will agree, a big number. Formula 1 has had 13 drivers on the top step of its podiums in that time, for instance.

And, admittedly feeder classes with higher turnover, Moto2 and Moto3 both had seven different race winners last year alone, and hauls of 11 and 10 respectively over the 2014 and '15 seasons.

The list of MotoGP race winners since 2007 is small enough that you can probably name them all, but to save you checking Forix, here it is: Loris Capirossi, Andrea Dovizioso, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi, Ben Spies, Casey Stoner and Chris Vermeulen.

Of that group, Capirossi, Spies, Stoner and Vermeulen are no longer active MotoGP riders, and as we enter the 2016 season, only Lorenzo, Marquez, Pedrosa and Rossi have won in the last three years. And it has also been five years since someone on a bike other than a Honda or a Yamaha won a grand prix.

The last man to win before both of those stretches started is Stoner, with his 2012 victories with Honda before retirement, and his win at Phillip Island with Ducati two years earlier.

So when talk started that Stoner could return to the grid this year as a wildcard within the deal that brought him back to Ducati as a test rider, it spread rapidly. He was still under a Honda contract when rumours first emerged, but his subsequent employer switch showed that where there was smoke there was fire.

Since Stoner walked away from MotoGP at the end of the 2012 season, a two-time world champion aged just 27, a 'how would this look if Casey was still here?' sentiment has often emerged.

If the evergreen Rossi keeps getting it done at the age of 37, surely Stoner - who turned a comparatively spritely 30 last October - would still command a factory contract. Would he still be at Honda, alongside Marquez?

Naturally, the prospect of Stoner dusting off the leathers, even if only for a couple of weekends a year, was exciting. Stoner stories were the most-read MotoGP news articles on Autosport.com in January and February.

I was back in Australia - mine and Stoner's homeland - earlier this year, and when discussing MotoGP with friends I would describe as casual motorsport fans at best, it did not take long for the question, "is Stoner going to race again?" to come up.

So far, that appears unlikely.

Stoner maintains there is "no plan" for him to compete as a wildcard, that the focus is on helping Ducati start winning MotoGP races again. And he has categorically ruled out a full-time return.

His first Ducati running was before and during the first Sepang pre-season test in February, on the 2015 bike, and he was the fastest Desmosedici rider as the factory pilots got their first taste of the '16 challenger. After that, Stoner said he wouldn't expect to be in the mix for a podium if he was going to be racing this weekend in Qatar.

That beats a slightly different drum to Stoner's confidence when the notion of replacing an injured Pedrosa came up last year. Honda was not as keen as Stoner, and that is viewed as a breaking point in the relationship between the factory and rider.

Stoner has only raced a motorcycle once since he retired, an ill-fated Suzuka 8 Hour entry last year, and, in short, don't look for him to add to that tally in MotoGP this year.

It would have been cool if that wasn't going to be the case - if Stoner was going to race at, say, his and Ducati's home grands prix, Mugello and Phillip Island.

But you know what? Looking at how things stand entering the new season, I don't think MotoGP will really miss him once we start racing this weekend. There won't be any shortage of stories to follow.

The big one will obviously be the title fight. Last year's season-long battle between Lorenzo and Rossi was a gem, even before you get to that late-season controversy.

Rossi showed he is far from a spent force. After starting 2015 with a victory in Qatar he said was the best of his career - secured with a last-lap move, no less - he was immovably consistent, scoring points in every race.

That inevitably meant he was one step ahead of Lorenzo, who had a mixed start to the season, summed up by a helmet-lining problem in Qatar. When Lorenzo got on a run, he won four consecutive races, and slashed a Rossi lead that had been 29 points back to just one.

An arm wrestle followed, with Rossi doing enough to stay ahead of Lorenzo until what was the final hurdle, when he started last at Valencia as a result of his penalty for his clash with Marquez at Sepang.

Especially as Rossi had already gone very public with claims of Marquez campaigning to help countryman Lorenzo win the title 48 hours earlier, it sparked one of the biggest rows in all of motorsport in the last generation.

Marquez has tried to leave that row in the past, but it is clearly something that still hurts Rossi, admitting recently that he felt "screwed" by the situation.

The next time they are on the same piece of track, especially in a race, will prove magnetic. And we don't have to wait long for their first interaction of 2016 - Rossi and Marquez have both been booked for Wednesday's pre-Qatar GP press conference.

How Rossi regroups from that narrow title loss will be intriguing, as will whether he can maintain his 2015 form. With four wins, he won more races in a single season than he had since taking his last title in 2009, and finishing five points behind Lorenzo is a lot less than the 97 and 67 he was off top spot in '13 and '14.

Like all of the factory riders, Rossi is out of contract at the end of this year. He believes he is still good enough, will probably decide he wants another two-year deal, and you would be hard-pressed imagining a situation in which Yamaha sends him packing. It's a far cry from his torrid Ducati stint. If that form had continued back at Yamaha, his future might be less clear.

If Rossi continues his amazing second wind, look for another compelling Yamaha battle with Lorenzo during the year.

There's no way around the fact that Lorenzo has blitzed pre-season testing. His average margin at the top was 1.005s at Sepang's test and 0.472s in Qatar, as he led the way in four of those six days of running. Even at Phillip Island, where he wasn't massively happy, he was not far from ultimate pace.

Lorenzo looks the rider who has gelled the best with the new control ECU and - particularly - Michelin tyres, that have posed plenty of questions over the winter. Still, a customer like Rossi knows titles are not won in February.

Like Rossi, Marquez has plenty to prove. Last year's Honda was ill-tempered, to the point it was abandoned mid-campaign by the factory riders in favour of the 2014 bike with the '15 engine. Marquez stuck with his all-out-attack style and while it is a slight exaggeration to say he either fell (including three times in five races) or won before the switch, it is not a million miles from the truth.

Marquez admits a less-aggressive approach could have been worthwhile, but after the switch he and Pedrosa won six out of nine races in the second half of the season. Honda has struggled with the move to the new Magneti Marelli electronics, starting well behind Ducati and even Yamaha, and Marquez finished the Qatar test happy, following progress in, literally, his final hour on the bike. Pedrosa was less positive, but having come back from career-threatening injuries this time last year to finish 2015 well, he should not be written off.

And then there is the chance for other manufacturers to break Yamaha and Honda's duopoly at the top.

Ducati, with or without its last world champion, is looking good. While Stoner and the satellite riders set the headline times in testing on the older models, the factory riders got down to business on the 2016 machine.

Its relevant experience with the new ECU clearly helps, but Ducati was diligent with the move to the Michelin tyres and finished the final test with quick times and a quiet confidence. Don't forget, Dovizioso was less than a lap away from ending Ducati's drought in Qatar last year, and Andrea Iannone was in the mix in that mammoth fight for the lead in Australia.

And then there is Suzuki. After three years away, it was more than solid in its 2015 return. Both Suzuki riders started a race from the front row of the grid, and finished one in the top six.

It has made major strides with its engine, having been down on power last year, over the off-season and finally has a seamless gearbox, like its rivals. The upshift-only version proved reliable, and could be followed by a full-seamless version this weekend.

Last year's top rookie, Maverick Vinales has been one of the genuine stars of the winter, topping two days of running, and he looks well-equipped to have a massive year and cement his status as a future star.

Both Ducati and Suzuki start the season as prospects to upset the status quo, and not just if Yamaha or Honda stumble due to the new electronics or tyres.

And then you have the satellite riders waiting in the wings; Pramac Ducati's Scott Redding finished the Qatar test as Lorenzo's closest challenger.

By October it will also have been 10 years since a satellite rider won a race, and the likes of Tech3 Yamaha's Bradley Smith - who is job-hunting for 2017 already - are eyeing early-season opportunities.

After this weekend's Qatar season opener, Stoner will get his first taste of the 2016 Ducati in a private, post-race test. There are no guarantees he will ever race it, but I don't think we'll be short of talking points over the next eight months either way.