The rights and wrongs of superlicence revamp

The talent of Max Verstappen has a lot to answer for. Although his graduation to Formula 1 for 2015 at the age of 17, with just one season in car racing under his belt, will never be cited officially as the reason for the FIA's new superlicence qualification rules, it's surely no coincidence that these measures have been revealed at this time.

Verstappen's promotion from Formula 3 European Championship sensation to F1 fledgling has been controversial, with many arguing against it not because of his experience, but his age. Under the new-for-2016 rules he would fail on three counts: he isn't yet 18; he has scored only 20 of the 40 points required; and he hasn't amassed the two seasons of experience in the prescribed championships.

One of the biggest issues is whether the sport even needed the new superlicence qualification rules. Verstappen is an incredibly gifted driver, he has fantastic racecraft, unbelievable car control, and a maturity beyond his years with a very strong sense - and opinions - of what's right and wrong.

On the other hand, Pastor Maldonado enters his fifth season of F1 as the field's most maligned competitor, with serious doubts over his racing judgement, yet he would easily have acquired a superlicence under all of the FIA's new conditions for his rookie campaign in 2011.

If we accept that yes, something needed to be done (with the emphasis on 'if'), we move onto the question of why the FIA has weighted particular championships in the way it has done.

Formula Renault 3.5 hasn't fared well in the FIA rankings © LAT

There's been a lot of criticism on social media that, in its grading of Formula Renault 3.5 and GP3 below European F3, and its awarding of a scant five points to FRenault 2.0 champions compared to 10 for national/regional FIA Formula 4 title winners, the governing body is shamelessly promoting its own initiatives and encouraging drivers to F3, F4 and the speculative 'future Formula 2' (weighted more heavily than anything, GP2 included).

This, of course, is the same FIA that dodged brickbats for years for doing nothing to streamline the cluttered single-seater ladder.

Some very well-articulated arguments from FR2.0 competitors (Jack Aitken, we mean you) complain about the category's feeble weighting, but let's look at it from another angle. If an FR2.0 champion graduates to Euro F3 or FR3.5, as we would expect them to, and has a couple of strong seasons, then they have their superlicence, and it could even be that the small points they score from FR2.0 make the difference in crossing the magical threshold of 40.

Even so, this is a very public slighting by the FIA of FR2.0, a category that was already enduring a considerably tougher winter than before, thanks in part to karters looking to go straight to F3 (we can blame Verstappen again for that!), and also to the strong take-up of the new FIA F4. One leading team we spoke to before Christmas said it was struggling to attract drivers for FR2.0 compared to previous years, and one manager of drivers at FR2.0 level said that he's in no hurry to place his clients for 2015 as seats will be vacant for much longer than usual.

As for knock-on effects of the new rules, some have argued that they will allow drivers to develop at a natural rate without being rushed Verstappen-style towards F1. That's a good point. Drivers of Verstappen's ability come along very seldom and pushing a driver too far too soon will often result in them not being able to build the necessary skill sets required to survive - let alone thrive - at the top.

On the other hand, there will be some drivers of outstanding natural talent, but without the necessary finance to compete for a full season with a frontrunning team at, say, GP2 or FR3.5 level, who fall through the cracks. This is undoubtedly a negative aspect of the new rules. Damon Hill (in his case in Formula 3000) and Nigel Mansell (in F2), for instance, would not have qualified.

Hill's F3000 record wouldn't have been sufficient © LAT

Regarding the weighting of those series that aren't European ladder championships, there have been criticisms of the low weighting for IndyCar and Japan's Super Formula. But both these series have a very similar field year after year, giving plenty of time to notch up superlicence points - and most of the drivers in Super Formula who you'd want to see in F1 compete in LMP1 in the World Endurance Championship anyway. Talking of which, some have argued that LMP2 should not have been excluded, but would we really want the likes of Sergey Zlobin qualifying for a superlicence?

You could say that the DTM is a glaring omission, but the tactics and strategy of the large manufacturer squads means that the championship order is seldom an accurate reflection of driver talent.

We asked Mercedes if reserve driver Pascal Wehrlein would qualify for a superlicence in 2016, and the answer was that the team didn't know! If he doesn't, then he'll have no chance of ever qualifying for one unless he goes to race in GP2 or gets some F1 races under his belt this year.

Marco Wittmann - a man who'd be entirely capable in F1 - is in a similar situation. Ditto Daniel Juncadella.

Looking at the current drivers in F1, it's clear that many of the superstars wouldn't have been eligible to race at the top level under the FIA's new rules. While this illustrates a failing of such a system, we also have to consider whether drivers would have chosen a different career path had they risen through the ranks under such regulations. We also have to bear in mind how championships would have been differently weighted at the time when those drivers were in the junior levels.

For example, Daniel Ricciardo wouldn't have qualified when he made his F1 debut with HRT in mid-2011 (although the points from his parallel FR3.5 campaign would have seen him safely over the hurdle for '12), but at that time there was no FIA European F3 Championship. It's highly possible, therefore, that national F3, including the British series he won in '09, would have been weighted more heavily, thereby allowing him to race with HRT in '11.

On paper, Vettel wouldn't have the required points, but only because the junior landscape has changed © XPB

Carlos Sainz Jr (another non-qualifier) might have decided that he would add F3 to his GP3 programme in 2013. Had he done so he would probably have scored sufficient points to get him in for '15.

Then there's Sebastian Vettel. He wouldn't have qualified for a superlicence for his mid-2007 F1 debut if you apply the current table literally, but with no FIA F4 in his era you have to expect that Formula BMW would have taken its place, and his crushing '04 season sees him through.

If we go further back in time to apply the rules, Ayrton Senna - who rose up the ranks at a time when there was an FIA European F3 Championship - could have competed in the European series instead of the British. Even if he hadn't won it, he would have scored sufficient points from FF2000 and FF1600 - which probably would have featured in a small way in the superlicence table - to take up his Toleman F1 drive in 1984.

Michael Schumacher? Like Ricciardo, he came along at a time when there was no FIA F3 championship, so German F3 - in which he competed for two seasons - could have been weighted highly enough to get him through, and that's without taking his Group C outings into account.

But whichever way you look at it, all this would leave Jenson Button out in the cold for 2000, Kimi Raikkonen in '01, and highly possibly Fernando Alonso for '01 and Mika Hakkinen in 1991. And should Robin Frijns, surely the most wasted talent of recent years, somehow find an F1 drive for 2016, he wouldn't qualify either.

Raikkonen's famous Formula Renault to Formula 1 leap would have been impossible © LAT

This goes to prove the undesirability of black-and-white regulations when there are thousands of shades of grey in between. Having taken the decision to implement these rules, the FIA has devised a qualification table that could do what everyone has wanted for ages: a decluttering of the single-seater ladder. But it's almost certain that there will be an unfortunate cost to the careers of some drivers too.

Instead, or perhaps complementing this table, the sport could do with an arbiter of talent - an individual, or perhaps a three or four-person commission - with the power to grant a superlicence to a deserving case who otherwise falls short. This would be in much the same way as Charlie Whiting has jurisdiction on sporting and technical matters, and would have to be someone with an intrinsic knowledge of the junior ranks and with first-hand experience of watching the competitors and talking to their teams and engineers. Only then could we be sure that we have an entirely fair system.

Table 1: current F1 drivers and how many superlicence points they would have had at the time of their debut

Eligible for superlicence:
Nico Hulkenberg   110
Lewis Hamilton    98
Pastor Maldonado  68
Nico Rosberg      63
Romain Grosjean   60
Felipe Nasr       52
Valtteri Bottas   50
Sebastian Vettel  48
Sergio Perez      42
Daniil Kvyat      42

Not eligible for superlicence:
Daniel Ricciardo   38
Carlos Sainz Jr    38
Felipe Massa       30
Fernando Alonso    30
Max Verstappen     20
Jenson Button      15
Marcus Ericsson    14
Kimi Raikkonen     5

There are several provisos here. The F3 Euro Series of 2003-11 is regarded as having the same value as the FIA F3 European Championship of 2012 to date. National Formula BMW (Vettel) is given a national F4 rating, as is British Formula Ford (Button). Euro 3000 (Massa) is given the same weighting as Super Formula. FIA F3000 (Alonso) is given a GP2 rating, with the old two-litre Formula Nissan (Alonso again) equated with national F3.

Table 2: How the scores would look if the rules were introduced for 2015

Fernando Alonso only had a brief pre-F1 career, including a star underdog stint in F3000 in 2000 © LAT

This includes drivers who have started grands prix but have not contested the requisite number of races in the past three years.

According to unofficial sources at the FIA, it appears likely that drivers can count scores from multiple series in the same year (eg Duval and Nakajima with Super Formula and WEC, de Vries with Formula Renault Eurocup and ALPS).

Also, the varying rules in nationally-run F3 series mean some would qualify, some not: Japan looks OK, Germany and Britain probably fine, Euroformula Open possibly not although the FIA is open to discussion.

We have also included the Italian series (which collapsed at the end of 2012) for the purposes of this table, although points from this will be discarded for 2016. Additionally, we have italicised those who have not completed 80 per cent of two seasons in the requisite championships.

Eligible for superlicence:
Andre Lotterer          132
Marcel Fassler          100
Benoit Treluyer         100
Tom Kristensen          80
Will Power              80
Scott Dixon             80
Raffaele Marciello      74
Loic Duval              70
Allan McNish            70
Helio Castroneves       70
Stoffel Vandoorne       65
Anthony Davidson        60
Sebastien Buemi         60
Jolyon Palmer           56
Fabio Leimer            56
Sam Bird                55
Felix Rosenqvist        53
Felipe Nasr             52
Alex Lynn               52
Mitch Evans             50
Davide Valsecchi        50
Kazuki Nakajima         50
Ryan Hunter-Reay        50
Esteban Ocon            41
James Calado            40
Luiz Razia              40
Daniel Juncadella       40
Antonio Felix da Costa  40

Not eligible for superlicence:
Tom Blomqvist           39
Carlos Sainz Jr         38
Alexander Wurz          38
Nicolas Lapierre        36
Simon Pagenaud          36
Neel Jani               30
Robin Frijns            30
Stephane Sarrazin       28
Lucas Auer              27
Romain Dumas            26
Marvin Kirchhofer       25
Pierre Gasly            25
Joao Paulo de Oliveira  25
Jordan King             23
Max Verstappen          20
Marc Lieb               20
Dean Stoneman           20
Jimmy Eriksson          20
Facu Regalia            20
Conor Daly              20
Daniel Abt              20
Naoki Yamamoto          20
Stefano Coletti         18
Nicolas Prost           17
Nick Yelloly            17
Jack Harvey             17
Yuichi Nakayama         17
Roberto Merhi           15
Will Stevens            15
Koudai Tsukakoshi       15
Oliver Rowland          14
Johnny Cecotto Jr       13
Antonio Fuoco           13
Antonio Giovinazzi      13
Emil Bernstorff         13
Lucas di Grassi         12
Tio Ellinas             12
Takuya Izawa            12
Will Buller             11
Aaro Vainio             11
Ryo Hirakawa            11
Nobuharu Matsushita     11
Arthur Pic              10
Pascal Wehrlein         10
Juan Pablo Montoya      10
Marco Andretti          10
Lance Stroll            10
Martin Cao              10
Riccardo Agostini       10
Markus Pommer           10
Nyck de Vries           10
Harry Tincknell         9
Mathias Beche           9
Sergey Sirotkin         9
Takamoto Katsuta        9
Rinaldo Capello         8
Nico Muller             8
Marco Sorensen          8
Stephane Richelmi       7
Jake Dennis             7
Matias Laine            7
Mattia Drudi            7
Matt Rao                7
Jazeman Jaafar          7
Eddie Cheever           7
Nabil Jeffri            7
Artem Markelov          7
Kenta Yamashita         7
Tony Kanaan             6
Justin Wilson           6
James Hinchcliffe       6
Ryan Briscoe            6
Norman Nato             6
Sven Muller             5
Dario Franchitti        5
Nigel Melker            5
Hiroaki Ishiura         5
Andrea Russo            5
Camren Kaminsky         5
Felix Serralles         5
Brandon Maisano         5
Indy Dontje             5
Kimiya Sato             5
Mitsunori Takaboshi     5
Katsumasa Chiyo         5
Hideki Yamauchi         5
Ben Barnicoat           5
Matt Parry              5
Nick Heidfeld           4
Jonny Kane              4
Nick Leventis           4
Danny Watts             4
Tsugio Matsuda          4
Sam MacLeod             4
Dennis Olsen            4
Alexander Rossi         3
Pipo Derani             3
Alexander Sims          3
Harold Primat           3
Andrea Belicchi         3
Carlos Munoz            3
Dino Zamparelli         3
Kevin Korjus            3
Patric Niederhauser     3
James Rossiter          3
Tomoki Nojiri           3
Louis Deletraz          3
Jack Aitken             3
Charles Leclerc         3
Luca Ghiotto            3
Julian Leal             2
Tom Dillmann            2
Nicholas Latifi         2
Michael Lewis           2
Brendon Hartley         2
Timo Bernhard           2
Marc Gene               2
Oliver Jarvis           2
Charlie Kimball         2
Richie Stanaway         2
Matthieu Vaxiviere      2
Yuji Kunimoto           2
Takashi Kogure          2
Kazuya Oshima           2
Leonardo Pulcini        2
Felipe Guimaraes        2
Henrique Martins        2
Gustavo Menezes         2
Mitch Gilbert           2
Richard Bradley         2
David Brabham           1
Peter Dumbreck          1
Karun Chandhok          1
Sebastien Bourdais      1
Graham Rahal            1
Jann Mardenborough      1
Kevin Ceccon            1
Marlon Stockinger       1
Alain Valente           1
Peter Li                1
Weiron Tan              1
John Bryant-Meisner     1
Daiki Sasaki            1
Alexander Albon         1
Seb Morris              1
Josh Hill               1
Matevos Isaakyan        1
Bruno Bonifacio         1
Paul-Loup Chatin        1