F1 2014's closest Friday yet

The days when pre-chicane Monza guaranteed a classic slipstreaming Italian Grand Prix have long gone, but based on Friday practice it could produce the closest Formula 1 race of 2014.

Not only did Mercedes only just shade it on headline laptimes on the opening day, but based on long-run pace the Silver Arrows are in the thick of a cluster of four cars at head of the field.

In fact, it was Williams driver Valtteri Bottas who was fastest over the long runs ahead of the Red Bull of Daniel Ricciardo with the Mercedes the third fastest, almost four tenths per lap slower.

Realistically, Mercedes can be expected to be in a stronger position on race pace. Fridays are always influenced by fuel loads and also the way that the engines are used, so don't expect Bottas to drive away from the field on Sunday.

Most likely, when everyone is in genuine race trim, Mercedes will retain the edge. But even if its advantage is restored, it is unlikely to be by the margins that we have seen at times earlier in the season.

Below are the average long-run pace of the eight fastest cars. These are based on the long-runs on medium rubber during Friday afternoon practice and judged over 12 laps. Anomalous slow laps are disregarded.

LONG-RUN PACE AVERAGE

GARY ANDERSON: "Bottas looks very good in the Williams. He's right on the limit and using everything that's there for him. While Felipe Massa can't be quite as confident or aggressive with the car as Bottas is.

"But it's very difficult to tell any big differences between the top dozen or so cars. And that is reflected in the laptimes.

"You are on the throttle for around 70 per cent of the lap here, so that's, by definition, a period when the driver can't really influence laptime. That's why the gaps are smaller than you see at some circuits.

"Interestingly, the advantage of the Mercedes doesn't seem as much as it would expect.

"That could well be a consequence of running with more downforce, and also with more conservative engine settings for the session. As ever, Friday doesn't show the full picture."

RAW PACE

Looking at the fastest times of each car, there's no surprise to see that Mercedes is top of the list courtesy of Nico Rosberg's fastest time.

But Kimi Raikkonen and Ferrari are right up there, just one tenth of a second off. That's well ahead of the next group of cars, including the Williams, which didn't have the same single-lap speed as its long-run pace.

"The Red Bull, as always, looked good but at Ascari, where I was watching in the afternoon, the Ferrari looked very fast to the point where it seemed to have more downforce.

"The corner speed was strong, it was well-balanced and it was great to see Kimi looking at one with the car. The speed trap figures weren't bad, and the pace was good, so that's encouraging for Ferrari.

"As for McLaren, you can see that it's moving around more than some others. It's very 'rear-endy', especially in the hands of Jenson Button, and you can see him working hard at the wheel."

LOTUS ALL AT SEA

Three teams were cast adrift at the back of the field on the Friday timesheets, with Lotus joining Marussia and Caterham in the group of six cars that brought up the rear.

It was a particularly dire show of pace, or rather the lack of it for Lotus, with both drivers clearly struggling badly. Without a point since the Monaco Grand Prix in May, it is unlikely that this will be the weekend during which the twin-tusked Lotus E22 returns to the top 10.

GARY ANDERSON: "Without a shadow of a doubt, the Lotus is the worst racing car I have seen in my life. It has zero grip, no balance and it's a tank-slapper machine from the first moment they turn the steering wheel to halfway down the straight.

"It is very strange to see. I think Romain Grosjean was the hardest-trying driver out there because Pastor Maldonado very wisely decided to take it a bit easy.

"The Lotus isn't fast, but the Marussia in the hands of Jules Bianchi proves that a slow car doesn't have to handle that badly. It lacks the downforce but it is well-balanced and responds well.

"As for the Caterham, it's evil-looking but better than the Lotus. In the case of the Lotus, it might just be that when you run in the low-downforce trim, you lose the downforce that goes some way to hiding the vices of a car."

STRATEGY

With Pirelli allocating the medium and the hard tyres, degradation was mild during practice. As such, a one-stop strategy is going to be favoured.

GARY ANDERSON: "The one-stopper seems the obvious way to go. If you are out of position and you want to try something different, you might consider trying one more but as overtaking isn't particularly easy here and the pitlane time loss is significant, it would probably make you think again.

"But strategy in qualifying will be interesting. You don't always go faster with softer tyres on your first lap at a track like Monza. Yes, you get more grip in the corners, but there is also more grip down the straights so that effectively makes it draggier.

"It will probably be better to do two laps to get the edge off the tyre so that loss is mitigated.

"There's also the questioning of slipstreaming. A good tow off Parabolica, then on the run between the first and second chicanes, can be of real value, maybe three or four tenths.

"So if you are a team with two drivers who are willing to work with each other, which not every team has, then there is a potential gain. But it's very difficult to pull off and, while it can be beneficial, it can cause a crash!"