Why F1 was Red Bull's only option for Verstappen

When the Formula 1 field lines up for the 2015 Australian Grand Prix Max Verstappen will by far and a way become the youngest driver to start a Formula 1 race.

Verstappen's instantaneous promotion to F1, having signed up to Red Bull's junior driver programme while still in the process of completing his maiden season in single-seater racing, is something unprecedented in the modern era of F1.

Unsurprisingly, Verstappen's deal to replace Jean-Eric Vergne at Toro Rosso, which was announced ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, sparked much discussion in the Spa paddock as to how a 16-year-old Dutch racer - who has yet to finish school and is not yet old enough to drive on the road in his home country - can possibly be ready to compete at motorsport's highest level.

ONCE IN A GENERATION TALENT

The pace of reigning European and World KZ karting champion Verstappen's assent to the pinnacle of single-seater racing has roots in his rapid progression as a rookie in European Formula 3 this year.

Verstappen was an F3 winner by the second event in the season © XPB

Simply stepping up to the ultra-competitive European F3 championship straight from karting looked a risk at the start of the season, but Verstappen has made the move look like child's play, according to category insiders.

Driving for the effective but unfancied Van Amersfoort team, Verstappen has belied his lack of experience to win eight times and lie second in the standings with two rounds to run.

According to rival team boss Trevor Carlin, Verstappen's performances mark him out as a driver the likes of which motorsport has not seen since Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen, who both graduated to F1 in 2001 with minimal car racing experience but a lot of success behind them.

Raikkonen was the reigning Formula Renault UK champion after his first full season of car racing, Alonso a race winner in Formula 3000 after becoming Formula Nissan champion in his rookie campaign.

"The thing that stands out about Verstappen is that all the tracks aren't known to him, all the conditions aren't known to him, all the circumstances aren't known to him, but he doesn't make mistakes," Carlin explains. "He can cope already. That's the amazing thing.

Red Bull Junior Team boss Helmut Marko (along with rival junior driver programmes) had been courting Verstappen for some time, but hadn't managed to persuade ex-Minardi, Arrows, Stewart, Tyrrell, Simtek and Benetton F1 driver Jos to commit his son to Red Bull.

"I wanted to sign him at the beginning of this year and put him in European F3 for 2015," says Carlin, who has long run Red Bull's junior drivers in F3. "But he quickly went beyond that. I'd be confident of putting him in my GP2 car now and running at the front immediately."

Verstappen made his Toro Rosso 'debut' in a street demonstration event in Rotterdam

As Verstappen Jr's performances in F3 began to make increasingly large waves, so rivals became increasingly interested in snapping him up.

Verstappen had discussions with F1 world championship leader Mercedes, which offered to make him part of its unofficial junior programme, put him in GP2 for 2015 with some Friday practice running at one of its F1 engine customer teams, and then place him into a race seat at either Force India or Williams in 2016.

Keen to ensure it got its man, Red Bull offered Verstappen the one thing Mercedes couldn't: a race seat in F1 for 2015. In short, Red Bull feels Verstappen is simply too good to miss.

"The negotiations started quite a while ago," Marko told AUTOSPORT. "In the beginning we were talking about a normal junior programme, but when we saw how competitive he was coming directly from karting into F3, we saw there is something special.

"I can't remember anyone in the last 20 years who jumped directly from karting into Formula 3 and was competitive immediately."

The last driver to achieve a similar feat was 2004 Monaco GP winner Jarno Trulli, who finished fourth in the 1995 German F3 championship and second in the Macau Grand Prix, having won World and European karting titles in 1994.

The Norisring is one of several F3 venues where Verstappen has dominated © XPB

"It's also the way he [Verstappen] is racing," explains Marko. "He is using his head when necessary, for example the last race in Nurburgring when it was wet and he was on slicks, he didn't fight with the guy on wet tyres because he knew the other guy would shoot his tyres.

"There was another outstanding race at Norisring where he was two seconds a lap quicker than everybody else on a circuit with four corners. That's when I thought 'this is a different story, there is something really special and we can leave all the other junior categories - we go directly to Formula 1'."

"He's been bred to be a Formula 1 driver," adds Carlin. "He may be 16, but he's got probably 12 or 13 years of racing experience at top level. He's a once-in-a-generation talent."

CAN VERSTAPPEN CUT IT IN F1?

In spite of Verstappen's youth and inexperience Red Bull is convinced he can cut it at the top level, because the Dutchman behaves and drives at a level way above that expected of a 16-year-old.

"For a 16-year-old boy he is a very mature person," says Marko. "At the end of the year he will have done more than 40 competitive races (in Ferrari's Florida Winter Series and European Formula 3).

"Compare that to Raikkonen, who came with 22 races in Formula Renault (plus Formula Ford Festival and Zetec Eurocup experience) - by far not as competitive.

Raikkonen came straight to F1 from FRenault in 2001 © LAT

"We have enough time to prepare him for Formula 1, so we expect him to jump in the car and be competitive."

Daniil Kvyat's consistently impressive performances for Toro Rosso this season, after being promoted to F1 as a 19-year-old GP3 ace, also give Marko confidence Red Bull has made the right decision on Verstappen.

"We believe in him," Marko asserts. "And I don't think we will be wrong. Kvyat was the same story. Everybody said we were crazy. We are used to it. We are crazy! But in a positive way. We are brave.

"Maybe we are wrong, but it was the chance to get an extraordinary, outstanding talent, which doesn't come every day."

WHAT ABOUT RED BULL'S JUNIOR SCHEME?

Marko appears confident in his choice, but the decision to sign Verstappen to the Red Bull Junior Team and immediately promote him to F1 still represents a risk.

The parallel with Trulli's own rise 20 years ago is a warning that not every driver who climbs rapidly to motorsport's pinnacle is guaranteed to go on and become a multiple world champion.

Lynn is winning for Red Bull in GP3 © LAT

The move also raises questions about the futures of the Red Bull Junior Team's existing drivers, how the scheme itself works, and potentially sparks a wider debate about the necessity to spend millions pounding around in various lower level single-seater series in order to 'work your way up' to Formula 1.

How does a kid who has yet to acquire a full season of car racing experience (however impressive he's been) deserve promotion to Formula 1 above fellow juniors Alex Lynn (GP3) and Carlos Sainz Jr (Formula Renault 3.5), who are both racing at a theoretically higher level than Verstappen, and leading their respective championships?

According to Marko, these details are irrelevant. For Red Bull, it's pure performance that matters, and he reckons Verstappen is simply outperforming every other up-and-comer out there.

"We always said performance is the only criteria we had," Marko told AUTOSPORT. "If you have the necessary talent and perform outstandingly then you are our man.

"We don't have a system that if you're three years with us the fourth year you will go to Formula 1. If someone comes who is better - bang!

"We are not the post office, in that after 20 years [of service] you get 40 days of holiday. It's performance related."

Rumours continue to link Sainz with a race seat at Caterham before this season is finished, while GP3 points leader Lynn (a Formula Renault champion who joined Red Bull after winning last year's Macau GP) still has his own sights set firmly on F1 for 2015 despite the shock of seeing a single-seater rookie leapfrog him in the Junior Team.

Marko insists there are no guarantees for Red Bull juniors © LAT

"Obviously it's really disappointing and I don't know where that leaves me right now," Lynn told AUTOSPORT.

"All I can do is keep winning and prove that I'm good enough to be there.

"I want to be in F1 next year, it just won't be in a Red Bull car. Hopefully they can [still] help me achieve that."

Marko says Red Bull will still work with its remaining juniors, which also includes Formula Renault Eurocup champion Pierre Gasly, to help them achieve careers in motorsport - whether or not they end up in F1.

"We are in discussions with them," confirmed Marko. "We explained there is an outstanding talent. There is no guarantee that if you enter the junior programme you get a Formula 1 seat. We have a process, we are trying to support and help them in our possibilities.

"But take it the other way around: I don't know how many juniors we had - quite a lot. If you go through the field of DTM and LMP1, most of them are paid to do motor racing. They wouldn't be there without us. Not everyone can go into Formula 1."

Verstappen will soon begin testing in a three-year-old car in order to secure his Super Licence, according to Toro Rosso team principal Franz Tost. Verstappen will then likely enjoy some free practice running across the final three races of the season, before taking part in the post-season Abu Dhabi test.

Less than four months later, he will enter the record books as the youngest ever driver to start a Formula 1 race and the watching world will get to see Red Bull's "once in a generation talent" strut his stuff on the biggest stage of all.

A schoolboy among men, but perhaps with the potential to one day make mice of them all.