Ferrari flatters to deceive in China

Mercedes is fastest, you don't need AUTOSPORT to tell you that. Even though the team endured a tougher Friday at Shanghai that it has been used to, the car that has walked the first three races remains the one to beat.

But Ferrari's speed was eye-catching. Fernando Alonso was fastest in the morning session, fastest on medium tyre pace in the afternoon by just over half-a-second and ultimately just 0.141s slower than Lewis Hamilton's fastest time.

So does that mean that all is suddenly well at Maranello? The adage that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is, applies here. For while Ferrari does not look as bad as it did in Bahrain, a closer look at the times suggests that today might have been more about a few positive headlines for new team principal Marco Mattiacci rather than a remarkable turnaround.

GARY ANDERSON: "I was watching at Turns 2/3 during FP2, so you see the cars coming in quick and then having to scrub off the speed. The Ferrari looked alright there, and it didn't have the problem with the rear-end giving up like it normally has, so in that regard it looks better than it did.

"But if you take Alonso's fastest time in FP2 and compare it to the start of his long-run on the soft tyres, the difference is 5.466s. For Lewis Hamilton and Daniel Ricciardo, the lead Mercedes and Red Bull's respectively, it's 4.7s.

"That offset suggests Alonso was on lower fuel for his quick run. You'd say that could easily be 20-30kg, which makes a significant difference.

"Ferrari's long-run pace appeared to tell a more realistic story, with its car, as you'd expect, in the cluster of those in the jostling pack behind Mercedes but by no means at the front."

RAW PACE

Mercedes is still the team to beat © LAT

As usual, the clearest indication of outright single-lap pace today came when everyone bolted on the soft Pirellis after the early medium-compound runs during FP2.

Hamilton was fastest, although given his suspension troubles, which cost him a significant chunk of the morning session, you would think that he should have been behind team-mate Nico Rosberg.

However, Rosberg's fastest lap was compromised by yellow flags caused by Pastor Maldonado stuffing his Lotus into the barrier in the pit-entry.

 1. Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton)       1m39.215s
 2. Ferrari (Fernando Alonso)         +0.270s
 3. Red Bull (Daniel Ricciardo)       +0.496s
 4. Williams (Felipe Massa)           +0.803s
 5. McLaren (Jenson Button)           +1.176s
 6. Lotus (Romain Grosjean)           +1.222s
 7. Force India (Nico Hulkenberg)     +1.421s
 8. Toro Rosso (Jean-Eric Vergne)     +1.444s
 9. Sauber (Esteban Gutierrez)        +2.044s
10. Marussia (Jules Bianchi)          +4.021s
11. Caterham (Kamui Kobayashi)        +5.215s

Again, this all points to Mercedes being the quickest car. But in terms of handling, the third fastest car, the Red Bull, was the one that caught the eye.

GARY ANDERSON: "The Red Bull, without doubt, looks very good. If I had to pick a car that looked best from the way it behaved, it would be that one.

"Turn 2 is a strange corner, because it's very easy to run wide and lose time with understeer. The Red Bull was very consistent with where Ricciardo and Sebastian Vettel could place it on the road.

"It was interesting to watch the two Mercedes drivers too. The car looked pretty good, but Hamilton was the more consistent and smooth. Nico Rosberg was having to make a lot of steering inputs.

"The car that did seem strange was Jenson Button's McLaren. His line through Turn 2 is completely different to anyone else, he just hugs the inside kerb. Everybody else is within a metre, but he's a car width tighter than the rest. I couldn't understand why he was doing that."

LONG-RUN PACE

There were a variety of long runs during the afternoon session of differing lengths, with some also cramming in runs on the medium tyre.

Looking at pace on the soft-compound Pirelli, removing anomalous laps and ensuring comparable stint length gives us the following averages for an eight-lap stint in the race:

 1. Mercedes     1m44.018s
 2. Red Bull     1m44.053s
 3. Williams     1m44.320s
 4. Ferrari      1m44.417s
 5. Force India  1m44.500s
 6. Toro Rosso   1m45.110s
 7. Lotus        1m45.677s
 8. McLaren      1m45.759s
 9. Sauber       1m46.067s

This suggests that Red Bull is best of the rest, although the proximity of pace relative to Mercedes probably flatters the RB10. What was really impressive was the full length of Ricciardo's stint.

He completed a 19-lap run on the softs, averaging a remarkable 1m44.407s for the entire stint. That's longer than anyone else managed, although it should be noted that Mercedes did relatively short runs on the softs.

Coming back to Ferrari, again there are causes for concern. While Ricciardo was still able to do a 1m44.643s on his 17th flying lap of the run, Alonso was in the mid-to-high 1m45s range when his run ended after 10 flying laps. Again, it all points to a team in the thick of the fight with Force India and Williams for third best, well behind Red Bull.

Graining was the main problem teams faced, and if conditions stay dry teams will make progress in terms of tyre usage. But Ricciardo's run was hugely impressive and you'd bet on a Red Bull driver being the interloper on the podium if Mercedes bags a third consecutive one-two on Sunday.

GARY ANDERSON: "Right now, the medium looks like the race tyre. But I'd expect the soft to get better as the track evolves, assuming it doesn't rain, which it looks like it is could do tomorrow.

"If I was starting the race tomorrow, you'd start on soft, have a decent run and then take a view of what strategy to use from there. Maybe take mediums in the second stint to see where you are. But a two-stop definitely looks possible, although today it looks like a coin-toss between two and three stops."

Tyre warm-up is key, with patience in building bulk, rather than just surface, temperature vital to minimising the front tyre graining. This factor makes the above averages dangerous, with for example Williams potentially flattered by a couple of laps being discounted where graining was a problem.

Much will depend on how well drivers and teams are able to get the tyres into the operating window, which will require patience. If you go too hard, too soon, you will be making trouble for yourself.

LOTUS MAKING PROGRESS

Lotus has taken a step forward © LAT

Lotus caught the attention for all the wrong reasons today, with Pastor Maldonado having several off-track moments before finally ending his day in the barrier at the pit-entry.

But Romain Grosjean looks a threat to pick up the team's first point with a fair wind in the race.

His long-run average is not helped by a relatively slow lap at the end, but it's possible Lotus could well, in reality, be stronger than Toro Rosso.

GARY ANDERSON: "While Maldonado was an accident waiting to happen that eventually did happen, Grosjean looked OK when I was watching from trackside.

"But he has a phase at Turn 2 when he's just hovering and waiting before he commits to see if the front washes out or not. He's doing everything right in terms of getting the car loaded up, so this must be because of a lack of confidence in the handling of the car.

"It shows there's still some work to do with the car and you have to feel for him, but there are at least signs of progress and the Lotus is certainly better than it was in Bahrain."