Can Massa thrive at Williams?

The last time Williams signed a Brazilian veteran ex-Ferrari driver, it worked out pretty well. Rubens Barrichello led the team in one of its better seasons of recent times in 2010, and his experience and speed proved a valuable asset.

The relationship ended after a dire second season during which, inevitably, team and driver had some fractious moments. But, on balance, the two-year Williams/Barrichello alliance was positive, particularly in the first year. It certainly extended the Indian summer of Barrichello's career, which started with the Brawn campaign of 2009.

There are plenty of similarities between new signing Felipe Massa and Barrichello, but it would be foolish to suggest they are in the same situation.

Barrichello had won two grands prix for Brawn in 2009, while Massa has not stood on the top step of the podium since his famous near-championship-winning home victory in '08. Both spent years as a support act at Ferrari and have the baggage to go with it, although Barrichello left on something closer to his own terms than Massa has.

Barrichello turned 38 during his first season with Williams, while Massa will hit 33 next April. After eight years with Ferrari, Massa has the air of a veteran on the brink of retirement, but realistically he has more potential seasons left in him in F1 than Barrichello did four years ago.

Barrichello joined Williams after winning twice for Brawn in 2009 © XPB

But the starkest difference is that Barrichello was regarded as a strong signing, a driver who, while not quite world championship calibre, was still operating somewhere near his best.

Unfortunately, Massa has not been at his best since before the accident in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2009.

Nobody who watched him during his extraordinary 2008 campaign would argue that he is quite the same driver, even though it's clear that the characteristics of the cars under recent rules have suited him less than they did in his heyday.

But setting aside the comparisons with 'first-generation' Massa, what driver will Williams be getting?

While, overall, his 2013 campaign has been more impressive than last year, it's important to note that in terms of points scored, he's hardly on a different planet. With two races to go, he has 106 points on the scoreboard compared to 122 at the end of last year.

He's scored just under half of Alonso's tally, meaning that in terms of raw results, his 2013 campaign has not been strong enough. Yes, he's a number-two driver, but he has that status for a reason.

The last couple of races have, however, been encouraging. India was arguably his strongest all-round performance of the year, while Abu Dhabi was decent. Ferrari's decision to put him on medium rubber for the final stint was perfectly legitimate, so those conspiracy theorists arguing that, bafflingly, Ferrari deliberately compromised its result to allow Alonso to finish ahead, even though he is no longer a championship contender, are wide of the mark.

One of the frustrating things about Massa in recent years has been how erratic he can be. At times, even on weekends when his underlying pace is good, he can go missing for spells in races, often costing him positions.

Take this year's Italian GP. On paper, the facts suggest a superb weekend from Massa. He started ahead of Alonso, was ordered to let him through in the race and finished fourth. But look closer and you'll see proof that it was ultimately his pace that undermined him.

Massa's recent qualifying form has been encouraging, but his performances over a weekend remain erratic... © XPB

He outqualified Alonso in part because he lucked into a tow from Mark Webber, while the Spaniard failed to get as strong a tow from Massa as he should have done. That was not Massa's fault, so all credit for being ahead on Saturday.

But it's what happened after letting Alonso through to take second that shows his weakness.

At the end of the seventh lap, when his team-mate passed him, Massa was 0.761s down. By lap 23, the gap had grown to 5.673s. In this period Massa was, on average, 0.355s slower than Alonso per lap.

In short, odds are had Massa not let Alonso past, the race finishing order would have been the same, just with Sebastian Vettel having an even bigger advantage. Massa was not quick enough on heavy tanks. No matter how much people obsess over the fact that Massa let Alonso past, he was not fast enough for 100 per cent of the race to do the best possible job.

You could argue that was partly down to the characteristics of the Pirelli tyres, which he does not get on with. But look back to 2010 and you'll see regular complaints about struggling with the warm-up characteristics of the Bridgestones.

Later in the race at Monza, he was once again bang on Alonso's pace. This is a pattern we have seen time and again. Glance at some snapshots of his season and you can see at some moments a driver capable of winning races; at others, a no hoper; and on other occasions merely an adequate performer. Certainly, not a driver to be relied upon every single lap.

The other concern is that, for all the talk of his vast experience, he has been one of the more error-prone drivers this year. He's been in the wall several times (not always through his fault) but crashes in qualifying in Montreal and practice at Silverstone seriously compromised his weekend.

The quality is in there somewhere, and accessible in fits and starts. But not regularly. Whether or not he can deliver lap-in, lap-out, let alone week-in, week-out, hinges entirely on whether the change of environment will transform him.

...while crashes have also compromised his season © LAT

Massa has always been a confidence driver, there can be little doubt about that.

The way he progressed during his early Ferrari years through 2006 as Michael Schumacher's team-mate, a 2007 campaign in which he was a championship contender until he retired at Monza, and then riding the crest of a wave almost to the title in 2008 proves it.

Removed from an environment where he is number two and up against a team-mate famous for asserting himself within a team, will that change?

Will no longer being employed by a team willing to order him to give away a grand prix victory 12 months to the day since the accident that could have killed him alter everything?

It'll certainly help matters, but it would be optimistic to assume that a fresh environment will put Massa back to his best. Without doubt he cuts a more relaxed figure, but those inclined towards the narrative of him being a driver transformed since being told he was out at the end of the year should look more closely at the results.

Sixth, ninth, 10th, fourth, eighth is nothing extraordinary even in a Ferrari best described as solid rather than spectacular. As for his qualifying performance relative to Alonso, that's been of a similar ilk since the closing races of 2012. So nothing has changed dramatically since he lost his job.

What's clear about Massa is his willingness to fight. While accepting the ride was over and committing to a long-term Ferrari deal in some kind of test/GT driver/ambassador role would have been the obvious path for some, he was determined to stay on in F1.

He deserves respect for that; in fact, Massa deserves respect across the board for the way he carries himself.

Whether or not this was the right decision remains to be seen, but it proves the determination is there, as it often is with those who have come close to the ultimate prize. Whether he can string it together is another matter and, based on recent evidence, you would not bet the farm on him doing so.

Could a new team, and escaping his number-two tag, rejuvenate Massa? © LAT

As for Williams, it's getting a driver with experience and the profile around which to build a commercial package. For all Massa's laudable talk about not being a pay driver, he does in part owe his place to his sponsorship appeal.

Certainly, were Williams to have had a completely free choice of the best available driver, there were several better options, not least Nico Hulkenberg.

But in the current economic climate, you can't blame the team for that, and Massa's CV does stand up to scrutiny.

Massa's experience will be no bad thing given the demands of the new engine package, and he could also be a valuable ally to chief technical officer Pat Symonds in ensuring the working practices in the team are sharp.

On-track, Massa is not what he once was, but off-track he can still have a good influence.

Fortunately, in the other car Williams has Valtteri Bottas, a driver who has had a far more impressive rookie season than the results suggest.

Most likely, Bottas will be the more effective of the two in terms of results, but Massa very effectively brings the experience to the team that the Finn lacks. Perhaps that's the most positive aspect of the alliance.

Strangely enough, Massa, a veteran of nearly 200 grands prix with 11 wins under his belt, will be the Williams driver who goes into 2014 with the most to prove.