The two weeks that will define Red Bull's future

Next weekend's Canadian Grand Prix will likely help shape the next few years of grand prix racing, playing a decisive role in whether or not one of Formula 1's great teams can become more than just an occasional factor at the front and if a driver who can potentially establish himself as a 21st century great will have the chance to win a world championship.

There was a time when a Red Bull victory was greeted by many with a tired sigh, as the team racked up 41 victories in 77 races and a quartet of drivers' and constructors' championship doubles from 2010-13. But since the start of the V6-hybrid-turbo era in '14, each one of its scarce wins has been greeted with delight rather than derision, simply because they have come against the run of the play.

Renault's struggles to produce an engine package that is potent enough to beat Mercedes and Ferrari on orthodox circuits - not to mention one that is reliable - have led to what many in the team feel have been four and a half wasted years feeding on scraps. The 10 victories have at least ensured that there have been regular oases in those seasons in the wilderness.

The frustration inside the team is understandable, because for some, but not all, of those years it has produced a strong chassis. But there is an upside, as it means a team whose lack of heritage - which led to derision from some quarters of F1's fan base - has been the focus of hopes that the dominant team of this era, Mercedes, can be beaten.

Just as Fernando Alonso has proved, a few years of heroic struggle can boost your reputation far more than seasons of dominance. Red Bull is more popular than it once was for that reason, but whether it can return to regular race-winning form depends on what happens in the next few weeks.

Why? Firstly, Montreal will be a key crossroads in deciding whether Red Bull will continue with Renault engines, or roll the dice on Honda. Both engine manufacturers will deploy upgrades - Honda's is reckoned to be worth 27bhp, among other changes, and therefore at least an improvement of perhaps 0.3 seconds, while Renault's could be a little more modest.

Red Bull has been generally upbeat about what it sees from Honda, meaning the possibility of going for a works deal in 2019 has increased. But this upgrade is the litmus test of whether Honda is now capable of what it failed to achieve when with McLaren, namely not just promising a big step but also delivering it. And doing so reliably.

Faith in Renault is not strong at Milton Keynes, and the ongoing problems with Viry making its in-house MGU-K (which was originally scheduled to be used from the start of 2017) race ready are not adding to that confidence. But it is a race-winning engine in the right circumstances, and it would be illogical to end that relationship without being confident that Honda can at least match it.

But what happened at Monaco, when Daniel Ricciardo's MGU-K was lost, won't have helped that feeling of confidence and you can sense the hope, the desperation, at Red Bull that Honda really can come through in F1.

And there is every chance that it can; after all, even McLaren expects it to come good eventually, it just couldn't keep going with a relationship that had caused so many problems and waste more seasons while waiting.

It would be illogical for Red Bull to ditch Renault without being confident that Honda can at least match it

The engine decision is critical for Red Bull's hopes for 2019 and '20, and will potentially have a knock-on effect to F1's brave new rules world of 2021. There is a lot at stake with this decision, as it would be tremendous folly for Red Bull to turn its back on Renault were the French manufacturer to make a breakthrough.

It's not impossible, as there are big steps in the pipeline related to the ERS package that could give the overall power unit the performance to be a threat in qualifying. And once up front, the Red Bull-Renault (sorry, 'Tag Heuer') often does have the speed to be a factor. The stakes are high.

It would be simplifying things to say that if the Honda package works, then Red Bull will instantly commit to being its works partner in 2019. But it will cast away doubts about Honda's ability to deliver what it promises, and reliably, and tick several very important boxes. If that happens, Red Bull-Honda in 2019 will become far more likely than not.

Related to this is Ricciardo's future. The Australian is out of contract at the end of this season and was happy to talk about that topic in the early stages of the year as he attempted to flush out possible chances to move either to Mercedes or Ferrari - the two teams that currently offer a shot at the world championship.

At the same time, Ricciardo had to focus on getting back on top of Max Verstappen, something he has achieved in the first six races of 2018, while also monitoring Red Bull's progress. The team would re-sign Ricciardo in a flash and will have tried to get him to commit his signature to the dotted line, but Ricciardo rightly is waiting to see how the engine situation pans out.

So, at stake in the next few weeks are two huge factors that could make the difference between it having a world championship standard driver, or not, and it having a world championship standard engine, or not. While Max Verstappen should, and surely must, get on top of his current problems, Ricciardo right now looks like the driver better placed to deliver over a full season.

The driver issue is secondary. After all, if Ricciardo does depart, Red Bull has a ready-made replacement on its books in Carlos Sainz Jr. He has the speed and F1 experience to slot and in do a very good job, even though he will have to adapt to life at the front.

While there might not seem much doubt Sainz can do that, given he has a handful of top six finishes to his name and exhibited a knack for picking up results unexpectedly when they were up for grabs, you can never be completely sure how a driver will respond to being at the front.

Remarkably, when Ricciardo was promoted to Red Bull there were doubts about his outright speed and the team wasn't certain about his abilities in wheel-to-wheel combat. That seem absurd now given what Ricciardo has done since, but they were legitimate question marks back then.

It would be a surprise if Sainz, a fast, intelligent and rounded driver didn't make the step, but you can never be entirely sure how someone will react when the stakes are raised. Red Bull wants certainties now, and Ricicardo offers that in the cockpit in a way neither Verstappen nor Sainz currently can.

The bottom line is that F1 needs Red Bull to be strong. It can no longer justifiably be considered a flash-in-the-pan operation, even though it is yet to achieve the key challenge of any team that aspires to greatness of winning titles in multiple-regulations eras. The days when Lewis Hamilton could dismissively say of Red Bull "they are not a manufacturer, they are a drinks company" have long since passed.

And the fans should want a strong Red Bull too. With F1's current two-tiered structure, with Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull in one group and the rest in a ludicrously congested midfield pack, all three need to be firing on all cylinders (not to mention with the maximum electrical power) to make F1 as dramatic as it can be.

What's more, Red Bull is also a team that can still set standards aerodynamically. While last year's car started badly, the way the team dug itself out of a hole was remarkable. Adrian Newey still sets standards in that regard, and any F1 fan should want to see such a brilliant and incisive mind - one who has an unparalleled ability to zero in on where the biggest performance gains can be made and build the compromises of the car design to maximise those opportunities - work his magic.

Vettel let slip that he believes Red Bull has more downforce than Ferrari and Mercedes

After qualifying second for last weekend's Monaco Grand Prix, Sebastian Vettel let slip that he believes Red Bull has more downforce than Ferrari and, by extension, Mercedes. While he caveated what he said by suggesting the car wasn't as aero efficient as it should be (perhaps a euphemism for not having as strong an engine) the fact remains that the Red Bull is this year the strongest car in the corners more often than not.

When talking about Honda's glory days in F1, it's impossible not to tie those successes to brilliant engineering minds such as Gordon Murray and Patrick Head. That's why every F1 fan should hope Honda's upgrade does what it should in Montreal this weekend.

The combination of Newey, a resurgent Honda, Ricciardo (perhaps Verstappen) and Red Bull fighting for a championship with a Mercedes team that has set new standards for excellence in recent years and a Ferrari team that's showing itself to be far more robust than it was a few years ago, is something F1 cannot miss out on.

That said, Red Bull won't discard a Renault engine package that at least allows it to win some races, especially if the upgrades start to flow and work as hoped.

But even if it takes a little longer for Red Bull-Honda to become a reality, the next couple of weeks will decide whether or not the dream scenario can happen and, as a consequence, how likely Ricciardo is to be part of it.

If not, then one of only three teams with the capacity to currently challenge for race wins will likely continue to be a bit-part player at the front rather than making it a genuine three-horse race.

Over to you, Honda.