F1's engine silly season about to kick off

Since the Austrian Grand Prix - where Red Bull boss Dietrich Mateschitz voiced his dissatisfaction with his team's engine supplier Renault - both parties have been extremely active behind the scenes while publicly paying lip service to their mutual "contractual obligations".

Mateschitz's blast encompassed a threat that Red Bull might leave F1, despite long-term contracts committing the company to the championship through to 2020. However, team insiders subsequently sought to explain his words, stating that Red Bull Racing could be forced to leave should it not secure a competitive engine partner.

As exclusively divulged by AUTOSPORT and its sister publication Autocar, Red Bull Racing has tried every which way to obtain a Mercedes engine deal - including the unlikely-sounding option of Aston-Martin-linked units, massaged through a Red Bull/Aston road-car development project.

The Red Bull and Lotus teams could switch engine suppliers © LAT

Meantime speculation ramped up massively in Hungary that Renault would buy back the team now known as Lotus.

There is, though, a not-so-minor complication: Lotus has a long-term deal (three years plus mutual options) to use Mercedes engines, and the 2016 car has been designed very much with the Brixworth-built power unit in mind. But the chances of Renault running Mercedes engines in its own team, even during a transition period, while also seeking partner teams to defray the costs of a programme running at half capacity are fundamentally zero.

However, should the various deals eventuate, then a 'swap' of power unit contracts could well be arranged: Renault-Lotus agrees an exit from its Mercedes contract and re-engineers its 2016 car to accept French power; Red Bull Racing takes over that supply of Mercedes units.

Although Lotus CEO Matthew Carter has consistently denied suggestions that the team could be for sale, the fact of the matter is that the two parties are in advanced negotiations - and have been since at least March.

In the meantime Red Bull Racing team principal Christian Horner has been busy behind the scenes attempting to secure state-of-the-art power. While he talks publicly of Renault contracts through to end-2016, privately he does not deny that his ideal scenario would be early release from Renault and a supply of Mercedes units.

Ferrari has dipped a toe into these turbulent waters, with president Sergio Marchionne suggesting in Austria that Maranello is prepared to supply engines to Red Bull Racing, as it did in 2006, before the team extricated itself from a long-term engine supply deal by ceding its Ferrari engines to sister team STR, while securing for itself the Renault units that would power it to four successive constructors' titles from 2010-13.


Horner and Marko are unhappy with Renault power © LAT

But Ferrari is a no-no as far as Red Bull is concerned. After a decade in F1 it believes that its success and financial commitment to the sport entitles it to 'grandee' status and therefore deserving of A-spec power - the 'works' status, if you will, that it came to enjoy with Renault.

It does not believe that it would be able to secure 'number-one' status from Ferrari when the Scuderia has the needs and success of its own factory team to consider, above all else.
 
So for RBR it's thus very much a matter of 'Mercedes or bust' - unless, of course, Renault can quickly start to deliver engines capable of winning races on merit.

In an attempt to progress the matter, Aston-Martin CEO Andy Palmer, the executive who in his former role at Renault-Nissan approved Infiniti's branding deal of RBR-Renault, is believed to have canvassed Mercedes CEO Dieter Zetsche heavily, using Daimler's five per cent stake in Aston as leverage.

This could explain Mercedes Motorsport director Toto Wolff's recent shift in position on the matter, with the Austrian going from "zero chance" of a Red Bull deal happening to "let's recalibrate who the enemy is". Could that "recalibration" take place in time for 2016?

But then, perhaps it won't need to... One of the most intriguing aspects of this high stakes, behind-the-scenes F1 power play is that, according to sources, a single-cylinder test engine developed at Renault Sport HQ delivered encouraging results.

So much so, it's reckoned that a full-scale version could cut Renault's deficit to Mercedes to around 20 horsepower. So could the possibility of a design revamp lie behind Renault's rationale of thus far spending its 2015 engine development tokens parsimoniously?

However, such are the costs of bringing that engine to the grid that Renault's board would need to approve unbudgeted spend of £80million in addition to the considerable costs of acquiring and restructuring Lotus - even at the reputed bargain-basement price of £30million for 80 per cent of the team, spread through to 2020.

The Enstone-based team could return to Renault ownership © LAT

The remaining 20 per cent? Tipped to remain with current co-owner Gerard Lopez.



All of this may anyway be too little, too late for Renault and RBR. On the Thursday before Silverstone, Renault execs visited Red Bull in Milton Keynes to present their plans.

Horner and Red Bull consultants are said to be have been left less than enthusiastic. It seems, then, that an end-of-contract split is inevitable at the end of 2016, unless a deal with Mercedes is reached before then.

Which brings us right up to date: This Saturday past Renault Sport F1 executives convened for a special meeting at which to discuss the company's motorsport future. Various proposals were formulated, including an exit from the World Series by Renault's Formula Renault 3.5 headliner, although the company will remain involved in other championships such as GP2, and Formula Renault 2.0.

According to sources Renault plans to ramp up its involvement in Formula E as befits the world's most prolific producer of electric vehicles: the 2016 e.dams race cars will sport traditional Renault Sport yellow/black livery. Meanwhile both Red Bull contracts will either be terminated by mutual agreement, or the teams will be supplied subject to undertakings that they will no longer publicly slate Renault. Thus a split could be imminent.

However, by far the most intense discussion focused upon the potential purchase of Lotus. The decision was taken to prepare a formal presentation on the matter for the Renault main board, on which Renault Sport is represented by Jerome Stoll, Renault's chief performance officer, executive vice president, sales and marketing director, and chairman of Renault Sport.

The board was due to sit on Tuesday but insiders anticipate that any final decision would be delayed for a month until the end of September while due processes are followed.

This raises a tantalising question: will Red Bull acquire Mercedes power for 2016, regardless of whether Renault acquires 'team Enstone' for the third time in as many decades?

All Horner would confirm was that he holds a valid Renault contract until the end of 2016, and that he "may have something to say after the summer break". But, Mercedes is unlikely to accommodate STR given its full plate of its own team, Williams, Force India and Red Bull or Lotus.

Changes at Renault Sport include withdrawing FR3.5 backing © LAT

Where might this leave STR, currently Renault powered? Although Toro Rosso has been linked to Honda, such a partnership seems unlikely in the short term, and a more likely scenario involves STR reverting to Ferrari power, as was the case until the end of 2013.

That would leave Maranello supplying its own team, STR, Manor and Haas. Plus Sauber, although there's a rub as relations between Ferrari's new management and the Swiss team no longer seem as convivial as they once were.

Could Renault units, then, be an option for Sauber? Cyril Abiteboul, Renault Sport F1 managing director, held a meeting with Sauber's Monisha Kaltenborn on Sunday morning before heading off to attend to GP2 business.

Of course, executives hold various meetings during grand prix weekends, but could they have discussed a supply of Renault engines for the Swiss team? That, too, makes sense: should the Red Bullers sooner or later leave the fold then Renault desperately needs to supply at least two teams to offset costs - if it intends remaining in F1, that is - with the purchase of Lotus delivering but one solution.

Thus, should all the blocks fall in place this year, the 2016, or failing, that, 2017, the grid could look thus:

Mercedes-Mercedes
Ferrari-Ferrari
Williams-Mercedes
Red Bull Racing-Mercedes
Force India-Mercedes
Toro Rosso-Ferrari
(Lotus) Renault-Renault
Sauber-Renault
McLaren-Honda
Manor-Ferrari
Haas-Ferrari

Where F1's driver market appears fairly stable, it would seem the engine situation faces some serious short-term upheaval.