Is Ferrari still in the game?

After its stunning showing in Malaysia last time out, Ferrari approaches this Sunday's Chinese Grand Prix with the weight of Formula 1 fans' expectations resting on its shoulders.

The headline laptimes from the first day of F1 running at the Shanghai circuit indicate what we already knew - that Mercedes still has a significant pace advantage over its nearest rival. Lewis Hamilton lapped over four tenths faster than Kimi Raikkonen on the softer tyre in the second free practice session - his ultimate margin of 0.443 seconds roughly 0.07s bigger than the advantage he held over the Finn at the same stage in Malaysia.

Where the Scuderia scored so heavily at Sepang, which ultimately allowed Sebastian Vettel to beat Hamilton in a straight fight, was maintaining strong pace over the longer runs in searing heat. The SF15-T is gentle on its tyres, and that translated to actually being quicker than Mercedes over a longer run last time out.

The initial signs suggest that advantage hasn't carried over to this circuit, where the layout puts the onus on the front tyres rather than the rear, and the rubber is softer but the conditions cooler.

Hamilton endured a troubled build up to the Malaysian race, which hurt Mercedes' preparations. This time he enjoyed a smooth Friday, which allowed Mercedes to split programmes across the two cars.

Ferrari looks stronger on the less-favoured medium-compound Pirellis © LAT

Hamilton did his long run (nine laps) on the soft tyre, while Rosberg did the biggest chunk of his running on the medium (with an extra run on the softs at the end of the session). At Ferrari, Raikkonen did the bulk of medium running for Ferrari, while Vettel focused on the soft tyre.

Mapping Hamilton's run against Vettel's puts the Mercedes 0.613s per lap faster over nine laps (Vettel completed two more on top of the nine Hamilton did).

The gap between the two cars on the medium tyre is much closer - Raikkonen was just 0.097s slower per lap on average over a 13-lap run compared to Rosberg.

However, Raikkonen extended his stint by an extra six laps - all of which were in the late 1m43s and compared favourably to the closing part of Rosberg's run.

On the face of it, it looks as though Ferrari can go for longer than Mercedes on the medium tyre, but it is struggling to keep up on the soft.

The soft tyre is significantly faster than the medium over one lap and degradation is expected to be low, while Pirelli expects a more conventional race here than we saw at Sepang in terms of strategy (projecting two stops for everyone).

So any medium tyre durability edge - if it translates on Sunday - is unlikely to gain Ferrari much, given the fastest strategy would appear to be two stints on the soft tyre and a minimal run on the medium. Not particularly good news for Ferrari fans.

And what if Ferrari made Raikkonen run extra long on the medium tyre to assess the possibility of out-foxing the field by attempting an ambitious one-stop strategy? It seems unlikely: 19 laps on that tyre - when the race is 56 laps long - falls well short of what would be necessary.

Ultimately it looks as though Mercedes has an edge here, and although Ferrari may gain some time back over a long stint on the harder compound, it probably won't be enough to allow it to beat Mercedes in a straight fight.

"It will be very close," reckons Vettel. "They [Mercedes] were very strong today in both sessions and all their runs, so I think for us most important is to make sure we do a step overnight.

"I think there's a couple of things we can improve on and then we see where it takes us.

"Priority number one is to be right behind and if we have a chance to fight them then we will try. If not, we have to make sure nobody gets ahead of us."

Ultimately, for a repeat of Malaysia, Ferrari will probably need Mercedes to drop the ball.

CAN RED BULL FIGHT WILLIAMS?

Red Bull had an awful Malaysian Grand Prix - battling overheating and brake problems, plus getting involved in scrapes with other cars. All that left last year's runner-up team trailing sister squad Toro Rosso in the fight for the lowest paying points positions.

But in fairness to the quadruple world champion team, it hasn't had the best of preparations for the first two races. Both Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat suffered numerous setbacks during practice in Australia and Malaysia, which dented their chances significantly.

Kvyat's rear brake failure in FP2 aside, this Friday has gone more smoothly for Red Bull. Ricciardo enjoyed a clean day, and his one-lap pace on the soft tyre put him clear of Rosberg and marginally ahead of Vettel.

However, Rosberg ran wide at the final corner on his best lap, while Vettel also didn't string his together, so in reality Red Bull will probably be looking to slot into the gap behind Ferrari and Mercedes here.

Massa's shunt hindered Williams's Friday programme at Shanghai © LAT

That would put it in a fight with Williams for the lower positions in the top six, which the Grove team had all to itself in Malaysia. Both Felipe Massa's Williams and Kvyat's Red Bull encountered problems that prevented any long running in FP2, so we only have one representative car to compare from each team.

The RB11 is still struggling for straightline speed compared with the Ferraris and Mercedes, but Ricciardo was half a second faster than Valtteri Bottas over a single lap on both compounds of tyre, while the Australian's eight-lap long run on the soft tyre was faster than the equivalent 10-lap effort by Bottas in the FW37.

That suggests Red Bull possibly has an edge over Williams here, but Williams usually holds some performance in reserve on Fridays, so we can certainly expect the pure-pace gap to close in qualifying on Saturday.

Red Bull certainly looks a stronger proposition here than it did at Sepang, which could make life harder for Williams.

HAS McLAREN ENTERED THE MIDFIELD SCRAP?

On the face of it McLaren appears to have made a massive step in China compared with Malaysia. Jenson Button split the Lotuses in FP2, and lapped within three tenths of the pace of Felipe Nasr's Sauber, which was best-of-the-rest behind the Mercedes, Ferraris, Red Bulls and Bottas's Williams.

McLaren has introduced an aggressive raft of aerodynamic upgrades for this race - which appear to be working well - and (MGU-K change between sessions for Fernando Alonso aside) the Honda engine is running reliably.

The team reckons its progress here has thrust it ahead of Force India but still slightly adrift of the midfield fight. Analysis of the MP4-30's long-run pace broadly backs this assessment, but suggests it might face another close fight with Vijay Mallya's cars on Sunday.

Alonso's medium-tyre long run was faster than the equivalent from Sergio Perez and actually slightly more impressive than the Lotus of Pastor Maldonado (who complained about the balance of his E23), but it was slower than Nasr's Sauber and well adrift of Max Verstappen's Toro Rosso - which looks comfortably the strongest of the midfield cars on the medium tyre.

Toro Rosso could be a factor in the battle for points on Sunday © LAT

Button did two slightly shorter long runs on the medium tyre, so what we don't know is how competitive McLaren will be on the race tyre of choice, but it is comfortably faster than the Force India on the medium, so may be able to make an alternative strategy work in its favour.

Pirelli calculates a 1.7s difference in performance between the two compounds, so if you adjust McLaren's running to project its possible pace on the soft rubber it will be right in the thick of the fight.

However, that's a very imprecise measure. McLaren reckons it will be struggling to keep up with the leading midfielders ultimately, so points probably look a long shot again this weekend. The battle for the lower reaches of the top 10 thus looks as though it will be a tight fight between Toro Rosso and Sauber, with Lotus maybe in the mix if it can look after its tyres well enough.

The Lotus is fastest on the soft tyre on longer runs, but cannot maintain pace as well as the Sauber, while the STR10 is slightly slower than both initially, but more consistent across the balance of a stint.

Toro Rosso's drivers both missed out on setting decent headline laptimes - owing to the red flag caused by Massa nosing the Williams into the wall early in the session - but their long-run pace on both types of tyre puts them in the mix for points.

Sainz was slightly slower than Marcus Ericsson's Sauber and Romain Grosjean's Lotus on the soft tyre, but his run was longer and more consistent, while Verstappen was easily the most impressive on the medium tyre - in fact close to Sainz's pace - which suggests Toro Rosso could have more strategic flexibility than its nearest rivals.

If the pace from Nico Hulkenberg's short soft-tyre run for Force India can be sustained, given that is expected to be the race tyre of choice, Force India can probably expect to be trying to beat McLaren over the balance of the grand prix, but not really in the mix for points.