Why McLaren is the key to the driver market

August is the time of year traditionally called 'silly season' in Formula 1, where everyone speculates on who'll end up driving for whom next season.

This year, the 'season' has been unusually quiet. Of course, the drivers at the top teams usually hold the keys to unlocking the driver market, but the big problem this time around is the fact the top seats (Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari) all look locked-in for 2015 at least.

Unless something pretty unexpected (such as Fernando Alonso following through on last year's fleeting courtship with Red Bull) happens among the big three, we need to look further down the grid to understand how the pieces may fall into place. We need to look to a former giant whose star has been on the wane recently. We need to look to McLaren.

The Woking squad has remained coy on who will drive its cars when Honda rejoins the sport as its works engine supplier next season - a partnership that is key to returning McLaren to its 'rightful' place among F1's elite. Part of this plan involves securing a 'superstar' driver for the long-term, and the team is known to have sounded out Alonso and Sebastian Vettel...

Ideally, McLaren would want this star signing to arrive as early as next year, but that looks unlikely, so it will probably be forced into a temporary solution.

Let's look at what it has in its hands: Jenson Button, 34, says he wants to stay on, but McLaren will be asking itself how many more seasons he has left in him. Then again, Button is a world champion, and how many of those are genuinely available next year? That experience could be very valuable as Honda endures growing pains with its new hybrid engine. Button surely knows this.

Boullier knows the decision is not easy © LAT

Then there's Kevin Magnussen - the talent promoted from McLaren's young driver programme. He's had a rocky rookie season so far, but is starting to show more of his potential. Does McLaren stick with him in the expectation of realising more, or decide there's not much left and try someone else?

The problem for Button is that his stock will fall if he can't convincingly assert himself over Magnussen; the problem for Magnussen is that he has to get on top of Button to convince McLaren he's the guy for the long term. It's a bit of a catch-22.

I can't see McLaren ditching both drivers at once - that would be a big risk, and top F1 teams aren't usually into those. It could opt to change one, like it did last winter, but if it does, who does it pick to come in?

Again looking outside the top three teams, Valtteri Bottas, Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg look the most attractive propositions.

McLaren overlooked Hulkenberg as a replacement for Sergio Perez this year, because of his weight, but that's less of an issue now the minimum will be raised for next season. But the team would also have to buy Hulkenberg out of his current multi-year deal with Force India.

Bottas has been one of the stars of this season, and I'm sure McLaren (and other teams) are following his progress closely. But Williams is the most competitive customer outfit at present and it would be a gamble for Bottas to give up the realistic prospect of more podiums (and maybe wins) in 2015. Another strong year at Grove and he could be an even bigger player in the next silly season.

Grosjean is available, and well known to McLaren racing director Eric Boullier from their time together at Lotus/Renault, but I think replacing Button with Grosjean would still be seen as a risk for McLaren, because the Frenchman has yet to deliver over a full season in the way Button has. More likely Grosjean could replace Magnussen, but probably only if the Dane doesn't kick on in the second half of 2014.

Ultimately I think McLaren will offer Button a short-term extension, and it will be up to him if that's acceptable. The team will probably retain Magnussen if he shows well against Button in the last eight races of this season, but try to replace him if he doesn't.

Boullier knows McLaren has a "complicated" decision to make on its driver line-up for 2015. Once it makes that decision, the rest of the jigsaw should fall into place.