GP report: Grosjean brings Suzuka alive

Romain Grosjean single-handedly gave the Japanese Grand Prix race some tension by getting his Lotus ahead of the faster Red Bulls at the start and proceeding to drive a near-perfect race.

But Grosjean was always the prey. What wasn't clear was whether the hunter was Sebastian Vettel, on his two-stop strategy, or Mark Webber on his three. The two alternatives were closely enough matched that circumstances could have swung it either way - and, in combination with the Vettel victory that played out, that was enough to trigger the conspiracy theories.

Did Red Bull really sacrifice Webber in his last ever grand prix at Suzuka to the favoured team golden boy, the man on the verge of a fourth consecutive title? The prosecution and the defence each have convincing cases.

Grosjean led the first stint from Webber and Vettel, the trio pulling far away from anyone else. The only likely interloper, Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes, was doomed within seconds of the start, a punctured rear tyre against Vettel's front endplate, later delaminating and destroying the floor.

The Lotus man was dynamite on the option medium tyre, on which everyone apart from Daniel Ricciardo started. The Lotus was handling beautifully, Grosjean driving with an assured, unflustered polish.

Lotus suspected that the Red Bulls were just biding their time, waiting for the opportune moment to pounce, but they couldn't initially do it on-track; Webber wasn't getting within the Lotus's DRS zone.

His low wing setting and long gearing were giving him plenty of speed at the end of the back straight - 192.4mph compared to Grosjean's 184.6 - but the Lotus's higher wing setting was endowing it with much better traction onto the straight, good enough to take full advantage of its shorter gearing. That was the crucial point, given that the DRS zone was down to Turn 1, at the end of a straight far shorter than the back one.

Grosjean made a great start to take the lead © XPB

Vettel was carrying some front-wing damage from that touch with Hamilton at the start, triggered by both Red Bulls bogging down. Lewis had made what was measured as his best start of the year to try to slice between the RB9s, which had left Grosjean with the space to the inside to use his fantastic traction off the line.

That damage was costing Seb 20 points of downforce (worth around 0.2s per lap), and he was sitting a couple of seconds back from Webber, as instructed quite early, keeping his car out of the turbulence zone that takes so much energy from these tyres. Webber had also been advised to drop back once it was clear that he couldn't make the pass.

"In putting Grosjean under a lot of pressure, Mark went through the tyres quite quickly," said team boss Christian Horner, "and that was quite crucial."

As the windows for the first stops loomed, Lotus was surprised that Webber was unable to simply latch onto the back of its man. Instead, Grosjean was out of undercut reach from as early as lap eight - and pulling away. By the 11th lap Webber was out of rear tyre.

Blistering of the rears was the limitation for everyone, but he was among the first to encounter it. That low wing setting perhaps? His early eagerness to take the race to Grosjean? Both? In he came, stationary for 3.2s, back out on the more durable prime (hard) that was the favoured race tyre for everyone.

Lotus responded next lap, turned Grosjean around in 2.6s - and out he came, still comfortably ahead. The early stop had, of course, pushed Webber towards a three-stop strategy. Horner: "Mark's first stint was too short for us in our own minds to make a two-stop really work."

Webber: "After my first stop I was told it was a two-stop and then in the middle of that stint we changed tactic. I asked if it would work, they said yes."

Lotus, with its easier tyre usage than Red Bull, had no motivation to go to a three-stop with Grosjean.

Vettel now assumed the lead, but there was no devastating pace waiting to be unleashed. Those worn mediums were too old for that, and he rejoined after stopping on lap 14 almost 6s behind Webber, who in turn still trailed Grosjean.

As far as Lotus was concerned, that three-lap difference between the stops of Webber and Vettel suggested a split Red Bull strategy, which placed the team in the dilemma of which Red Bull to respond to.

Webber had to switch to three stops © XPB

"It was very difficult to try to beat both of them," said the team's on-track chief Alan Permane, "but we went for the win and in hindsight maybe we could have settled for second. But we thought, 'Let's try'."

Which, as far as Lotus was concerned, meant racing the two-stopping Vettel rather than the three-stopping Webber.

"Two-stopping was faster. Not by much, but enough," continued Permane. "I got the sense that they were working as a team strategically with two cars to pincer us."

This would be the entirely logical thing to do from Red Bull's perspective. But the three-stop was not unfeasible as a winning strategy. Most of the 22s the extra stop costs is clawed back in theory, and you end up doing a short stint on the briefly faster option tyres at the end. This, near enough, gets you back up with an equivalent two-stopper. As long as you don't encounter traffic delays, of course.

Splitting the strategy was the logical thing for Red Bull to do. It placed Lotus in an awkward position, and got Webber and Vettel out of synch with each other, minimising the potential for trouble. So if one of them was to be the three-stopper, it obviously had to be Webber, given his earlier stop, his higher tyre usage and lower-downforce rear wing.

Meanwhile, what was unfolding was a terrific race. The three-car struggle up front was simmering nicely, and the gap to those behind had been wildly stretched by the long opening stint of Ricciardo's prime-tyred Toro Rosso, which kept going until the end of lap 21.

In that queue, Nico Hulkenberg had jumped the Ferraris by undercutting them at the first round of stops to run sixth, behind the Mercedes of Nico Rosberg. But there were other things afoot in the red camp: the whiff of mutiny! "Multi-function strategy A," Felipe Massa was informed, having run ahead of Fernando Alonso since the start. "Now please." There was no reply - and Massa remained ahead. If Alonso wanted to be past his team-mate, he was going to have to do it himself.

They were all bumped up a place in the queue on the 16th lap when Rosberg was obliged to pit for a drive-through penalty. This was for his unsafe release at the stops, the Merc cutting across the bows of the incoming McLaren of Sergio Perez as it accelerated away.

"It was an error of procedure," Mercedes' Toto Wolff explained. "We put markings on the wall to judge the position of the other cars, and if it's before the marking we release. But that did not take into account cars cutting in front of us at the next two pits down. So that mistake originated on Thursday."

Alonso got no help from Massa this time © XPB

Alonso was finally able to use DRS to slip ahead of Massa into Turn 1 to put himself on Hulkenberg's tail, making it imperative for 'Hulk' now to get by Ricciardo. The Toro Rosso was too good on the brakes for the Sauber, so Hulkenberg was obliged to take a brave pill and do him down the inside into 130R.

As that pack rushed up to the chicane, so Massa was taking a look down the inside of Alonso, but not quite making the repass. As they began the new lap Alonso was on his DRS once more to squeeze by Ricciardo.

The blockage was finally removed as Daniel pitted, just as Kimi Raikkonen slipped by Esteban Gutierrez, who was having his strongest race of the year in the much-improved Sauber. All that time stuck behind the long-running Toro Rosso had left the dicing pack almost half a minute adrift of the top three.

Grosjean was initially edging away from Webber once more, but this time Mark was just giving his tyres some respite; he was able to close back up at will and soon did so. Unlike the day before, when everyone's front ends were nailed down through the esses from the headwind, the Lotus just wasn't liking the prime tyres as much as it had the options.

Webber was in DRS range of the leader by lap 24 and lapping quickly. So he was surprised to receive the call to come in and switch to a three-stop at the end of the following lap.

"The target lap that we looked to get for the two-stop I thought was achievable," he said. "The three was not absolutely ridiculous, but it's a bit more high risk and you have to clear people. I felt a bit piggy-in-the-middle, trying to beat Romain on a two then switching to a three."

"Because of the big gap that had formed behind Ricciardo," explained Horner, "there was clear track for Mark to drop into at this time. This made it almost a free stop, and because of Mark's early first stop we felt that this was the best way for him to attack and pass Grosjean - and we'd do the opposite with Sebastian."

That makes perfect sense, and it had the additional appeal of clearing the way for Vettel to track the Lotus down. In fighting the two-headed snake of the Red Bull attack, Lotus knew it was now between a strategic rock and a hard place.

"We ignored Webber coming in," related Permane, "but the problem it created was that Vettel was able to cruise up onto our gearbox, and at any point from then he could've come in and undercut us. That put the pressure on us to stop as early as we dared."

Vettel was within undercut reach of the Lotus by lap 28, having taken 2.2 seconds out of it in three laps. This was very early to come in for a two-stop, leaving a final stint of 24 laps.

Grosjean could not keep Webber at bay in the end © XPB

But Grosjean was doomed if he did, sure to be passed later by the new-tyred Webber, damned if he didn't, certain to lose track position to Vettel. "That was all just a function of racing against a car that was faster than us really," said Permane. "There was a little moment in the first stint I thought we might be able to do it, but when you have a car as fast as theirs you can do anything you want really."

Grosjean was brought in at the end of lap 29, fitted with another set of primes and got underway 10s behind Webber, with Vettel now up front, clear track ahead, tyres still in great shape.

Although some of the details of his drive were a little scrappy, Vettel was judging things beautifully, just the right blend of pace and tyre conservation, and over the next eight laps after Grosjean's stop Vettel did the punishing damage to the Lotus's race. He couldn't quite pull out a pitstop's worth of time over it, but it was close - and he would be rejoining not far behind it on fresh tyres that were much faster.

Vettel came in on the 37th lap, was turned around in 2.4 seconds and rejoined just a couple of seconds behind the Lotus. Webber was now in a temporary lead of around 14s, nowhere near the 22s needed for his extra stop. He could have been left out at this stage, converted back to a two-stop.

On tyres 12 laps older than Vettel's, with 24 to go, he would definitely have been caught, but could Seb have passed? Having its two drivers go wheel-to-wheel in the closing stages of a race, with March's Malaysian Grand Prix and Webber's stolen win there never fully resolved, was probably not the way Red Bull wanted to do it.

But first Vettel had to find a way by Grosjean. Lapping up to 1.5s faster, he was soon upon him and the moment came on lap 40, Seb tight in the slipstream out of the final turn and going for the inside, Romain squeezing him towards the pit wall but realising it was done. Vettel was through and quickly pulled away.

"Be careful Seb," said engineer Guillaume Rocquelin over the radio. "You are going to be under attack from Mark in the closing stages. You need to look after your tyres."

Had Vettel not been able to pass Grosjean so quickly, Webber's task would have been a lot easier, and staying out would have looked better and better - if he could have kept his tyres alive.

But the moment Vettel overtook the Lotus, Webber was brought in. He stopped on lap 42, was fitted with a set of options, which were sure to be the faster tyre over the remaining distance, and rejoined four seconds behind Grosjean, eight behind Vettel.

Vettel's pass on Grosjean was key © XPB

Webber was a second per lap faster than his team-mate at this stage, there were nine laps left - victory in his final grand prix at Suzuka was still possible. But he had to clear that old-tyred Lotus that lay between them, and that's where Webber's challenge floundered.

The downside of a three-stop - and of Webber's low-wing set-up - played out. He was on Grosjean's tail by the 45th lap but just could not find a way by. Time after time he'd get in the DRS zone, but his problem was the lack of traction onto that pit straight, Mark sawing away at the wheel through the long, slightly downhill right-hander that links the chicane to the straight, struggling to get the power down as the Lotus pulled itself out of attack reach. Grosjean was perfect under the most intense pressure. He was inevitably going to be passed, but he wasn't about to surrender the place.

From the moment Webber failed to deal with Grosjean immediately, Vettel's victory was assured. He'd been waiting for the inevitable Mark attack, getting very agitated over the radio in getting the backmarkers to move aside, 'Rocky' even telling him to calm down at one point. The prospect of having Webber launch a late attack, with nothing to lose, while Seb tries to win a world title, was definitely creating some tension.

Meanwhile, things had got a little scrappy behind. Alonso had emerged at the head of that long train of cars, but not before spending many laps trying to find a chink in Hulkenberg's defences.

He finally used DRS to pass the Sauber with seven laps to go, Nico on his old tyres then coming under attack from Raikkonen, who nailed him at the chicane with two laps to go.

Massa had been hit with a drive-through penalty for speeding in the pitlane at his second stop, promoting Gutierrez, who was now 20s adrift of team-mate Hulkenberg and concentrating on defending from the recovering Rosberg, who was very marginal on fuel.

Perez had punctured a rear tyre against Rosberg's front wing, and into the closing stages the three-stopping, fresh-tyred McLaren of Jenson Button was picking off the stragglers, including Massa, for ninth.

Webber, having even tried finding a way by Grosjean on the approach to Spoon Curve, finally did it with one lap to go, in the DRS zone down to Turn 1, as the Lotus's rear tyres finally cried enough. The dream of a victory last time here was gone - seven seconds up the road. Vettel had scored his ninth victory of the year. He hasn't lost a race since the summer break...