How a mindset change created Marquez's biggest 2020 rival

The perceived wisdom towards the end of last year and all through the winter was Marc Marquez's biggest threat to his MotoGP crown would come from Fabio Quartararo, who demolished expectations and asserted himself as a MotoGP frontrunner in a sensational rookie campaign last year.

Call it hype, call it misguided, call it whatever - the facts were laid bare for all to see. Despite riding a 'B-spec' Yamaha machinery, essentially a 2018 M1 with a detuned 2019 engine, the Petronas SRT rider regularly ran with and made his factory counterparts look silly. More than that, he gave Marquez something to think about.

Upon only just beating Quartararo at the San Marino Grand Prix, Marquez branded him a main title threat for 2020 and a problem for the rest of the season. Indeed, SRT backers Petronas were willing to dip their hands in their pockets to provide Quartararo with full works machinery for this year, with Yamaha only too happy to oblige.

A total haul of six pole positions and seven podiums come the chequered flag in Valencia, as well as claiming Marquez's scalp in qualifying in Malaysia - when the Honda rider's mind games backfired and ultimately resulted in the injury that would ruin his winter - ensured there was only one name on everyone's lips looking ahead to 2020.

But, prior to the coronavirus pandemic delaying the 2020 season, it became clear where Marquez's true rival would emerge.

In many ways, Quartararo is on the same path as Maverick Vinales when he signed up to join the works Yamaha team for 2017.

The 2013 Moto3 world champion was marked as the paddock's hottest property when he made his MotoGP debut in 2015 with Suzuki, and his regularly impressive performances on an underpowered GSX-RR - including his dominant first win at Silverstone in 2016 - appeared to quell any talk that three-time champion Jorge Lorenzo's departure to Ducati could destabilise Yamaha.

Indeed, Vinales won three of the opening five races in 2017 - including an epic at Le Mans in which he stamped his authority as Yamaha's de facto number one after forcing team-mate Valentino Rossi into a crash in the last few corners - while Lorenzo struggled for form on the Ducati.

But Vinales had accepted a poisoned chalice. Yamaha's strong start to 2017 was made possible by the opening tracks suiting the bike, while Marquez struggled with the difficult Honda RC213V, Andrea Dovizioso had yet to make his major breakthrough for Ducati and Suzuki wallowed in the errors made by Andrea Iannone pre-season.

Yamaha hadn't really got its head around the switch to Michelin tyres from Bridegstone in 2016 - something Rossi would later concede. On top of that, Yamaha chased its tail figuring out the cause of its issues with high tyre wear and wheelspin, which began with a miserable Spanish GP in '17 and would persist for years.

To make matters worse, Vinales started to suffer his trademark poor starts and, coupled with a lack of early form, it ruled him out of podium contention far too often across 2018 and the early part of 2019.

"I should have been calm in those other years, doesn't matter how it goes" Maverick Vinales

After Le Mans '17, it wouldn't be until the third-from-last round of the 2018 season at the Australian GP when Vinales stood on top of the podium again. Even that win came when Marquez, who had already sealed the world title, was effectively taken out by a high-speed clash with Johann Zarco.

This led to the Spaniard developing a spikey exterior, his answers radiating frustration and signifying a rider who was trapped in his own head.

In 2018, after a tough French GP, where he finished a distant seventh having won the race the year before, he said: "I improved [my pace during the race only because] I was trying to crash in every corner of the track. I improve only for that because I don't want to finish the race 10th, I want to finish the race at the top."

Realising his anger was getting him nowhere, Vinales did what all great bands do and made a change.

He parted ways with a trusted hand in crew chief Ramon Forcada (who now works with Franco Morbidelli, having formerly been Lorenzo's right-hand man) in favour of his former Moto3 chief mechanic Esteban Garcia. This would ultimately allow him to operate in a clearer headspace, while a change in number from 25 to 12 was seen by him as a way of leaving his troubled past behind him.

"I should have been calm in those other years, doesn't matter how it goes," a methodical Vinales responded in February's Qatar test when asked if it was easier to be calm when the bike was good.

"It's important to be calm and clever, because sometimes when you get nervous you are not clever. So, we need to be calm and clever and that is the most important thing."

Lessons from the Doctor

Vinales endured many frustrating moments in the first half of last year, mostly down to his erratic pace between qualifying and the race. But after each tough moment and missed podium, he always sought the positive.

This was something he absorbed from his veteran team-mate.

"We both passed difficult times at Yamaha - especially the last part of '17 and '18," Vinales said. "Valentino was always smiling, and I was not understanding why. We are far in the timesheets, we are [only in the] top 10, so we are not used to that.

"So I didn't know why he was smiling. So sometimes I talked with many people and I say 'I don't know how he can keep smiling', and he was so happy and it doesn't matter. He left everything on track and was happy off the track. So, I learned to be happy even if things are not going as you like. But it took me months to understand."

This, along with steady developments from Yamaha aiding its Michelin grip issues, ultimately set him up to grab a mid-season victory at Assen last year and a run of five podiums from Germany to the end of the season, including a win in Malaysia and a near-miss at Phillip Island, when he crashed chasing Marquez in an all-or-nothing last lap.

This vaulted him into the top three in the standings for the first time in two years, when he had been adrift outside the top 10 heading into the Assen race, and provided a strong base to work from for 2020. Yamaha just had to hold up its end of the bargain.

A strong pre-season on the new M1 - which included topping the Qatar test outright after Quartararo was fastest at Sepang - and from which he didn't "finish in Malaysia really angry" for the first time in years, suggests the goods have been delivered.

"I push the people to the maximum, I also push myself to be in the best mood for the races" Maverick Vinales

Perhaps most importantly, Vinales feels he has regained trust from Yamaha after admitting it was missing in the first half of last year - which ultimately led him to consider a Ducati switch before committing to Yamaha for two more years. Trust goes both ways, and is integral to a strong team.

"I trust the team a lot," Vinales states. "They are making the best for myself. So, I start to understand this team and they give the best for myself, so I need to give the best for them. It doesn't matter if I'm angry one day or not, I have to give the best.

"I'm maybe the most important part of the team, but the other people are also very important and as I push the people to the maximum, I also push myself to be in the best mood for the races."

As the last seven years have shown, beating Marquez is a near-impossible task. Only Lorenzo in 2015 has usurped him in the championship battle - and in reality, Marquez lost the championship more through his own inability to adapt to a difficult bike than Lorenzo out-and-out prevailing in battle.

Matching Marquez's mastery

Marquez already had a team around him he could truly rely on but, like Vinales, had several mental hurdles to overcome. After the disaster of '15, when he finished a distant third, Marquez altered his approach away from the win-it-or-bin-it mentality he had carried with him through his grand prix career to that point.

After his tough start to '17, the stress of which resulted in hair loss, a look within allowed him to rediscover his enjoyment for racing to carry him to that year's title. Since then, he has been almost bulletproof and operating at an unearthly level.

The Vinales who stepped into Yamaha in 2017 was never going to beat Marquez. But the Vinales gearing up for a hectic 2020 season - whenever it gets underway - and with his long-term future assured at Yamaha, most certainly can.

His talent was always undeniable. But all the changes he has made over the last year-and-a-half in terms of his entourage and within himself will allow him to deploy that talent to devastating effect.

Quartararo may well be the new Marquez beater in MotoGP, but one was already lying dormant on the grid. And now he is very much awake...