From the Pulpit

For the past few seasons, Formula One has been governed by a double trilogy, if I can put it that way: three great teams, three great drivers. And it has been even more symmetrical than that, in fact, because those three great teams have each enjoyed the services of one of those three great drivers: Kimi Raikkonen at McLaren, Fernando Alonso at Renault, and Michael Schumacher at Ferrari.

In 2006, victory-wise, Kimi and McLaren took a rain-check (but, operating separately now, each will drop by the winners' circle to claim on that rain-check in 2007, you may be well sure of that). So 2006 was all about Renault versus Ferrari, and Fernando versus Michael - and, neck and neck all the way, those two great teams and those two great drivers gave us a wonderfully dramatic season, one of the most nail-biting for years.

And 2007 could be just as exciting - and less predictable. My money is on Kimi and Ferrari, but as yet it is both too close, and too early, to call.

So, rather than try to make form predictions about 2007, or indeed re-live 2006, let's instead look forward to November 15th 2006. That looming date, lest we forget, is the deadline by which all applications to enter the 2007 FIA Formula One world championship must be lodged.

FIA logo © XPB/LAT

There's an anomaly here, of course, because although in theory any Tom, Dick or Harry (or Paul, Craig or Eddie) could enter the 2007 championship in the next few days, the 2008 series is already full, Prodrive having already got the gig.

Prodrive's success was announced on April 28th of this year, following FIA president Max Mosley's masterly but Machiavellian decision to impose an unusually early deadline by which applications to enter his new back-to-basics 2008 formula should be lodged.

It was Machiavellian and masterly because it (a) made it impossible for dissenters, who might still be flirting with the idea of entering a putative rebel 2008 series to be run by something called the Grand Prix Manufacturers' Association, not to enter the official version of F1 (i.e., the FIA Formula One World Championship) in 2008, while also, via some gentle and/or even perhaps not-so-gentle arm-twisting of the Pauls, Craigs and Eddies of this world, (b) demonstrating the obvious popularity of said back-to-basics formula (why else, reads the FIA script, would no fewer than 22 consortia have lodged applications for just 12 available 'berths'?).

It worked a treat. The GPMA is now but a distant memory (OK, it still exists as a company, and it achieved some of its aims in terms of negotiating a bigger slice of F1's financial cake for the teams, but after April 28th the idea of it ever running a rebel series in tandem with F1 was dead and buried).

Mosley's assiduous FIA director of communications, Richard Woods, moved fast to persuade journalists that the 22 applications constituted a ringing endorsement for his boss's 2008 regs - no mean achievement when some of the 22 were decidedly unimpressive in terms of potential pitlane cred. Ever heard of ALK Group, North Western, Filmty Interactive or LuxRace Tech? No, me neither. Wisely, Woods went on and on about the 22... but never named them.

But what astonished me then - and, yes, still astonishes me now - is that one or more of the disappointed 22 didn't call Mosley's bluff by not only lodging an application to enter the 2008 FIA Formula One World Championship when invited to do so earlier this year, but also lodging an application to enter the 2007 FIA Formula One World Championship at the same time (an application to enter the 2007 FIA Formula One World Championship could have been made at any time from March 2005 onwards, by the way).

Yes, entering the 2007 FIA Formula One World Championship would have necessitated, and still would necessitate, paying the US$48 million 'bond' that has been abandoned for 2008 onwards and which Prodrive therefore have never had to pay. But, as anyone at Super Aguri will tell you, the bond is no big deal. Why? Because it doesn't ever actually have to be paid per se; a bank guarantee will suffice. And, moreover, it's fully refundable, at the rate of US$4 million per month for 12 months, with interest.

This time a year ago everyone was saying and writing that Super Aguri were on a hiding to nothing, and that they would never be able to trouble the scorers in 2006. Well, that they didn't - but, unlike ALK Group, North Western, Filmty Interactive and LuxRace Tech, or even reasonably well-resourced and relatively high-calibre one-time 2008 F1 wannabes such as Direxiv, Jordan, European Minardi, BCN Competition, Baram F1 and AMT Promotions, all of which were beaten by Prodrive to the 12th 2008 'berth', Super Aguri will be on the grid in 2007. And, yes, 2008, too. And in a couple of months they will have had their US$48 million repaid in full. With interest.

Aguri Suzuki at Leafield © Super Aguri

Who's sorry now? Well, presumably, the unsuccessful 10 of the 22 2008 aspirants, that's who - including Direxiv, which was of course a McLaren-Mercedes B-team by another name. It's well known that Ron Dennis is keen to launch McLaren-B - why else would he have wasted time flirting with the odious Russell King's fictitious 'Team Dubai' a couple of years back? - and understandably so.

McLaren-B would (a) provide a useful revenue stream for the existing McLaren-A, (b) become a valuable proving ground for young drivers and engineers, (c) double the size of McLaren's power-base for voting purposes etc, and (d) be a saleable commodity, just as Prodrive F1 is already a saleable commodity despite the fact that it's still little more than a twinkle in David Richards's eye.

And, earlier this year, had Direxiv (or McLaren-B) lodged an application to enter not only the 2008 FIA Formula One world championship but the 2007 FIA Formula One world championship too, then the FIA would have been forced to accept that 2007 application... which would have meant that there was no way on God's earth that it could have realistically chosen any other consortium, Prodrive included, when it came to sifting through the 2008 applications.

So why didn't McLaren do it? I don't know. But, even more interesting, it still may not be too late. If McLaren - or even, say, European Minardi, whose energetic boss Paul Stoddart still misses F1 grievously and may well buy a Champ Car team this weekend in a desperate attempt to scratch that itch - were to lodge an application to enter the 2007 FIA Formula One World Championship within the next few days (i.e., before the November 15th cut-off), then the FIA would still have no option other than to accept it, as long as it was a bona fide application, with a bank guarantee of US$48 million attached (which it would be, of course).

And then McLaren-B (or Stoddy, but let's stay with our McLaren-B hypothesis for now) would race in F1 next year - using, as Toro Rosso did this year, lightly adapted one-year-old chassis provided by their partner team, and creating and negotiating the 'third-party manufacturer' loophole that, in allowing Toro Rosso to run last year's Red Bulls this year, the FIA has effectively endorsed as a viable route for others to follow.

And what would then happen in 2008? Well, Prodrive's application has already been accepted, so it would have to be honoured. And McLaren-B's? Well, however well the team had done in 2007, there would be no room at the inn and McLaren-B would be out in the cold.

Or would it? Because here, I fancy, a bit of realpolitik might enter the equation. Mosley is cute enough to realise that had, say, McLaren-B been viewed by all and sundry as an exciting addition to F1 in 2007 - perhaps providing Lewis Hamilton and Gary Paffett with points-scoring opportunities, for example (Alonso and Pedro de la Rosa having done the honours in the McLaren-A cars) - then not admitting the new team to the 2008 FIA Formula One World Championship would cause a media uproar and real fury among fans. Mosley would be well aware of that. Bernie Ecclestone, too, would want to find a way of keeping everyone happy.

Max Mosley and Ron Dennis © XPB/LAT

And where there's a will, there's a way. And it so happens that all current F1 circuits are licensed for 26 single-seaters, not only 24, which is how it is that the GP2 Series can run 26-car fields in its Grand Prix support races. Yes, garage space in some of the older pitlanes might be tight - but, again, needs would probably be met.

So, in theory, could we see 13 teams in 2008? Yes, in theory, we could. It would require six teams (i.e., a simple majority) to vote for it in a Sporting Working Group meeting, after which that vote would have to be ratified by both the Formula One Commission and the FIA World Motor Sport Council. But that ratification would in fact be no more than a rubber-stamping process; in practice, if six teams had voted for it, there would be no reason for either the F1 Commission or the WMSC to oppose it.

Would six teams support the idea? Perhaps they would, yes. Certainly, some of the smaller teams would oppose it - on the basis that only the top 10 teams in any previous year's constructors' championship are eligible for free freight provided by Ecclestone's companies and shares of 'Bernie money' (ie, TV revenue, track-signage revenue and Paddock Club revenue, which works out at an average of around US$20 million per annum and will be higher from 2008 onwards).

And, clearly, the presence of an extra team would make it that bit harder for the likes of, say, MF1 Spyker to finish in the top 10. On the other hand, MF1 Spyker would like to change its name to Spyker F1 - a move that would require the approval of all the teams, including any current team that might make their approval contingent on MF1 Spyker not blocking their B-team ambitions.

And, of course, the bigger teams - which are (a) less reliant on 'Bernie money' and (b) less worried about not finishing in the top 10 in the constructors' championship and (c) potentially desirous of running B-teams themselves - might well support McLaren's ambitions.

And as I say, where there's a will, there's a way.

Will it happen? Probably not - but it should! So come on, Ron, Paul, Eddie, Craig, wherever you are. Put your (fully refundable, with interest) money where your mouths used to be not so long ago, run a team in 2007... and give dear old Max a right royal headache into the bargain!