Why 2017 is make or break for F1

Formula 1 is preparing itself to be bigger and better than ever in 2017, with larger cars, enhanced aerodynamics, and better tyres, all of which is expected to make the machinery substantially quicker and comfortably the fastest F1 cars we've ever seen.

The changes are principally designed to restore some of F1's lost visceral appeal by making the cars more difficult to drive, and more spectacular to watch. The hope is that the drivers will be pushed to their physical limits again, rather than 'merely' driving around slowly to target lap times, trying to protect tyres.

F1 is banking on pure speed, expressed in the form of substantially quicker lap times, as the method by which interest in this form of motor racing will be boosted, among both fans and drivers.

"We lost a little bit this 'wow' effect we had in Formula 1," argues McLaren racing director Eric Boullier. "Cars were heavier by 120 kilos, and we are now in a situation where you save fuel, you have to save tyres. It's not in the DNA of racing, which is to push as much as you can from point A to point B.

"Also, the cars are less exciting to drive for the drivers - especially the drivers who knew the 2003/4/5/6 cars. These years the cars were very physical to drive.

"We have to bring F1 back to its DNA. That doesn't mean we are less safe, but we need to bring F1 back to this car which is very late braking, cornering speed is unbelievable, and grip is the best in the world."

The drivers will surely welcome this kind of Formula 1 with open arms. Many of them have been among its most vocal critics during the V6 turbo-hybrid era that began in 2014.

The quiet sound produced by the engines (something that is still being worked on by the manufacturers) and Mercedes' utter dominance of consecutive championships hasn't helped. But the drivers are mainly bothered by the (lack of) challenge posed by the cars.

Double world champion Fernando Alonso has regularly spoken of his fear GP2 lap times are too close to Formula 1, and even suggested fans should be paid to watch F1, having observed much of free practice for the Brazilian Grand Prix from trackside, after his own car broke down.

The drivers haven't enjoyed the lack of noise, they haven't enjoyed the lower cornering speeds (even though top speeds have gone up), and they have continued to complain about having to spend most of their time driving conservatively to look after tyres (even in qualifying), rather than testing the outer limits of their personal skills.

"In F1 as it is now you have to compromise your driving style always," explained Kevin Magnussen at the end of last season. "It's about finding a good balance between things, and not pulling everything out of your lap, because you are over the limit from the moment you leave the pits - it's very easy to be on the limit with the car.

"It's very different to what I prefer. These cars are a little bit overpowered for what [grip] we have. The car is always sliding, too much wheelspin, it doesn't ever feel like you are completely on the limit, glued to the track.

"It's so easy to get to the limit of the tyres. It's a bit like driving a Formula Ford, made easy by power steering! There's no risk at the moment. It might change next year. I hope so."

Magnussen is not the only one, and there is no doubt F1 cars will be substantially different in 2017 - what former Williams technical chief Pat Symonds reckons will be an "evolution-plus" of the current breed.

"All this was predicated on Bernie Ecclestone saying he wanted the cars to go five seconds quicker, and this will cure all the problems of the world, in the Middle East, and probably the Russian borders," says Symonds. "I suspect it won't..."

There is already some disagreement over the absolute magnitude of F1's 2017 regulation changes, with Toro Rosso technical director James Key calling it the biggest in decades.

"It's a massive change," he says. "Honestly, from a bodywork, suspension and tyre point of view, this is the biggest one I've personally experienced in almost 19 years in F1. From a chassis point of view, it's the biggest change of the past two decades - even bigger than 2009, and certainly bigger than 2014."

But Symonds, who was involved in the overtaking working group that drafted the 2009 rules, feels '17 is more evolution than revolution.

"I really don't think I'd call it revolution - everything is quite logical," he says. "[But] it is a lot of change at once. In 2009 we changed aero and went to slick tyres, and that was a much bigger change than a little bit of width change, so it's not unprecedented.

"The thing that's unprecedented is it's the first time in my career where we've been given a set of rules that has the potential to generate more downforce."

And that's the key point. Formula 1 has for years attempted to heavily restrict aerodynamic development in the interests of safety, continually tweaking the regulations to restrict the ingenious engineering that constantly finds ways to make F1 cars faster.

Limits on windtunnel and CFD use will remain in place, but the basic cars should be significantly quicker than their predecessors, and development should happen at break-neck pace as designers are afforded greater freedom to chase performance.

"I think everyone understands what the changes are - it's a wider, swept front wing, the rear wing is wider and lower, we have a bigger diffuser, the car is wider, and we have more design freedom around the front of the sidepods [for bigger bargeboards]," explains Symonds. "The net result is that we could see 25% more downforce on the cars by the end of the year.

"What I should say is 'the potential' for 25% more downforce', because you've also got the drag that goes with it, and added to that you've got the drag that comes from the wider tyres."

Consequently F1 teams are readjusting their mindsets after years of trying to make the most of developmental playgrounds that have steadily been decreasing in size.

"The playground for aerodynamic development has just opened up immensely," says Force India technical director Andrew Green. "The team is still trying to grasp the concept of what they can do now. They've been working in such a small area, and a lot of the time I have to shake them and say 'forget about that tiny thing, look at all this shit. Go play, go see it!'

"The numbers keep climbing and climbing, so it's going to be an interesting year."

Symonds expects "quite a significant increase" in cornering speeds at circuits where teams will be able to make the most of their new cars' potential.

"Typical 200km/h corners that make up so many tracks, you're going to see that going up from 200km/h to 230km/h or so," he explains. "It's significant as a number, it's significant as a lateral acceleration - it adds a G to it."

This will naturally have a knock-on effect for drivers, with Force India's Sergio Perez predicting they will be "destroyed" during pre-season testing, while they build up physical resistance to increased loads.

Mercedes already restricted Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg to half-day programmes during the 2016 pre-season at Barcelona's Catalunya circuit, thanks to the strain created by each of them completing more than 150 laps per day in a reliable car.

But Perez predicts the drivers will adjust quickly, while Boullier and Symonds reckon the cars will be no more physical to drive than they were 10 years ago.

"We've had close to these levels of downforce in the past, and cars have got power steering and can handle the increased loads, the wider tyres, and things like that," says Symonds. "They will be a lot more physical to drive than the current cars, but I really don't think it'll be a big thing."

"It's not an unknown difference," adds Boullier. "Physically I think it'll be similar to 2005 or 2006."

A big potential upshot to these new regulations is the potential to increase the aesthetic appeal of F1, with cars that look more aggressive than the previous generation did.

"From an aesthetic point of view the new design is going to be very exciting," says Force India deputy team principal Bob Fernley. "It's much more swept back, it's more modern. We get rid of some of the boxiness of the [old] car."

The new wider tyres are a major aspect of this adjustment. Pirelli is tasked with the dual brief of increasing the proportion of mechanical grip available through the profile of the tyres, while also reducing degradation in order to allow drivers to push the limits of the cars for longer in races.

The Italian tyre manufacturer tried various prototypes across 24 days of tyre testing in 2016, completing an estimated 12,000km of running using '15 cars supplied by Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari that were adapted to replicate some of the aerodynamic profiling expected on the '17 cars.

The test mules naturally fell significantly short of producing the simulated loads expected from the actual 2017 cars, and Pirelli admits the rubber will likely have to be modified once the season is properly up and running.

"We would've liked to hit the target with a little bit more confidence to start with," says Pirelli motorsport boss Paul Hembery, who reckons the 25 days of in-season testing granted to the manufacturer this year will at least help ensure the tyres are spot-on for 2018.

"In reality we're only going to see representative conditions when we get to Melbourne, China and Bahrain. That's the biggest unknown, and of course when you go into an unknown you try to be more conservative.

"If we've got excessive blistering or graining, something that starts falling into a safety category, then we would ask to make a change [immediately].

"It'll [likely] be more about the compounds not being where they need to be. We had that in the first season we came back - we had to change the hard compound in Barcelona.

"If there is something that's clearly amiss then we'll make the change. If not, it'll be something to work on for 2018."

What sort of tyres Pirelli produces, and how they withstand the loads generated by the 2017 cars, is the great unknown heading into this year.

"Tyres is the bit nobody knows," says Symonds. "A lot depends on where we get to with compounds, because under the new Pirelli supply contract there was a requirement from the FIA, driven by the teams, as to what the tyres should be like.

"They specified levels of degradation and levels of performance, relative levels of degradation, relative levels of performance, and also the idea that if you did over-stress the tyre, it came back to you - not like the current tyres.

"We have no idea whether we're getting to that or not, and that's going to be the real determining factor. Until we start testing in February, we're not going to know exactly where we are."

Regardless, there will inevitably be a natural boost in interest initially, as everyone cranes their necks to see what sort of spectacle and competitive order this latest Holy Grail brings to F1.

Formula 1 is forever grappling with competing identities. Is it about the best drivers, or the closest racing and competition, or the most technologically advanced and quickest racing cars - and can it somehow reconcile all of these elements with competing commercial and political interests?

The 2017 rules changes don't solve this conundrum, but they do suggests F1 has decided to prioritise featuring the quickest racing cars on the planet above all else. Even though, on a full-blooded qualifying lap, F1 cars already were...

F1 will have to live with the consequences of this choice. Beefier aerodynamics and better tyres should equal more impressive cornering speeds, and greater technical and physical demand on the drivers, but with the likely consequence that races will now feature less overtaking - perhaps a good thing if degradation and DRS have made this art form less significant - and greater strategic convergence.

Whether the continued presence of DRS on the rear wings, and the potential for generating more downforce from expanded diffusers, is enough to offset the likely impact of reduced braking zones, less variability of tyre grip between cars, and the sensitivity of an increased aero platform to follow in the 'dirty air' of rivals, remains to be seen.

F1 will also need to grapple with the paradox of a formula that is theoretically more challenging for the drivers further masking their skills to the naked eye - though it will be welcome to see the cars being driven harder more often.

"What will it do to the racing? I think there are two things there," adds Symonds. "One is that we have got more downforce, and the generalisation is that it's harder to overtake a car the more downforce it's got on. It is true, but it is a generalisation, and there's an awful lot about the detail we don't know yet.

"The other thing is time with a constant set of rules brings equalisation. The fact is if you leave a set of regulations alone for 10 years, in 10 years' time the cars will be closer to each other.

"We've done the opposite to that - we've ripped it up again. That might change the pecking order; it might separate things out. It's hard to say."

The key, as ever, will be competition. No one will mind the consequences much if (and it's a big if) the championship fight is closer this year.

"I think there will be consequences," says Haas team principal Gunther Steiner. "It cannot be without unexpected things coming, but we are pretty good at dealing with that stuff. I think we just need to adapt quickly to get it better, instead of discussing it until beating a dead horse.

"In the beginning we need to be focused - what are we going to do to solve the problems? What needs adjusting?

"That will come, but I think it's an exciting time. I personally like it. And it's so difficult to predict what will happen, which is good because if you continue to do more of the same, what will change?

"Right now there is very little unpredictability. The silver cars win. Maybe, sometimes, the Red Bull can beat them.

"It's very difficult because they gave themselves such a big advantage, but fair play, they did a good job, they didn't luck into it. So let's see what comes out.

"I don't know, nobody knows. For sure the big teams will do well, because they have the most resources, but maybe some wildcards will stroll in there."

It would be fantastic to see Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull all able to stand a realistic chance of victory at every race if they do their jobs properly, McLaren-Honda and Renault coming up fast in their mirrors - perhaps even Force India, Williams, and Toro Rosso too on their good days.

"Definitely the big teams will be at the front," adds Boullier. "But there is room for somebody to punch above his weight. The current regulations, we were at the end of the capacity. It's like starting from a blank sheet of paper, which is good. It's going to be an exciting chapter for F1."

But it needs to be an exciting chapter for F1's fans too. Otherwise F1 2017 could end up pleasing its drivers and engineers, but no one else.