Would Button really make an F1 comeback?

Does Jenson Button want to stop racing in Formula 1 or not? It's a question that no one really has a clear answer for. Not even Button himself it seems.

At the recent Italian Grand Prix, F1 witnessed two very different ways for a driver to step back from the championship they love - a love that has driven them, nourished them, consumed them for all their adult lives. And longer.

Felipe Massa took the straightforward approach. He knew Williams had different plans for the future - plans that wouldn't include him - so he called a press conference and told the world he would bid F1 an emotional farewell at the end of the season.

He tore the sticking plaster right off his arm in one full motion. 'I know I don't have a drive for next year, I don't think I can find another one that will make me happy, so I'm going to do something else. Bye everyone! And thanks for all the memories!'

Nice and conventional.

Button's approach was rather more unusual, taking what looks like a gradual glide path towards the same destination.

Button says he decided during F1's summer break - or rather couldn't decide during F1's summer break - whether all this jetsetting, racing around the world full-time malarkey was really for him anymore.

He'll be 37 years old next January; this is all he's ever known. 'What else could life hold in store for me?' we imagine Button philosophically wondering as he sunned himself in California.

But equally Button feels he's driving better now than ever before - going toe to toe with Fernando Alonso in the same car and holding his own. 'I'm still good; I'm still fast; what if I'm not ready to give it all up yet?'

He told Ron Dennis his quandary when F1 reconvened at Spa. Ron seized the opportunity. 'Well, if you're not fully committed we can't have you racing for us next year, but equally you've done a lot for us so how about we pay you to not drive for us next year while you decide what you really want to do?'

That's about the gist of it.

Button agreed to hedge his bets. He's signed a new two-year deal with McLaren-Honda, so he hasn't actually given up the ghost for good, but that deal means stepping aside to let McLaren's highly prized youngster Stoffel Vandoorne race his car in 2017.

McLaren has an option in the contract to bring Button back into the race team in 2018, but we'll see how that goes.

To all intents and purposes it looks like Button is retiring from F1. But we aren't allowed to call it retirement.

As Dennis put it, "to avoid any confusion, forget the word retirement - that's not in the vocabulary, that isn't what we are saying. Jenson is one of the team's drivers for the next two years".

Dennis is right in the sense that Button is under contract to the team for two more years. But he won't actually be racing. He'll be keeping busy - in the simulator, in briefings, at McLaren-Honda PR events - but for the first time since the turn of the millennium he won't actually be competing in F1. And for 2018, McLaren-Honda retains that option to bring him back into the fold proper, should it so desire.

So perhaps this should be better termed a 'sabbatical' for Button. Paid leave while he ponders greater mysteries than whether McLaren's set-up direction is the correct one, spends more time with friends and family he hardly ever sees, and works out what to do next with his life.

This has worked out relatively well for other world champion drivers over the years. Ferrari paid Kimi Raikkonen not to race in 2010, after it signed Fernando Alonso. Raikkonen headed for rallying then returned to F1 with Lotus in 2012 and ended up back at Maranello, now enjoying a second stint at the team that will carry on for at least one more season.

Similarly, Alain Prost used an enforced sabbatical after being fired by Ferrari at the end of 1991 to return reinvigorated with Williams and win the fourth of his world championships in '93.

Michael Schumacher and Niki Lauda both made successful comebacks after several seasons out - particularly Lauda, who won the championship for a third time in '84 after missing two seasons of F1.

But all of these instances are not truly analogous to Button's circumstances. Prost and Raikkonen were essentially sacked; Button has not been. Schumacher and Lauda both came out of retirement to make their comebacks. They walked away from F1 on their own terms and then returned under different ones. Button does not enjoy that luxury. He remains contracted to McLaren-Honda.

It's a masterstroke from Dennis. He's been able to choose between two drivers for one seat without actually having to yet discard one of them.

But can Button really make a return to racing in F1 in 2018, should he "go bonkers trying to find something to do" in '17, as Dennis puts it?

It would appear any hope of that hinges entirely on what current team-mate Alonso decides to do next. Alonso is under contract until the end of '17, but then he is free to do as he pleases, with no strings attached.

He has already indicated that F1's new 'big tyres, big aero' rules package - and how difficult and enjoyable that makes the cars to drive again - will be key in deciding what he does next.

If these cars excite Alonso, and McLaren-Honda still retains Alonso's faith that it's on the right path towards toppling Mercedes, the likelihood is that Alonso will extend his stay and Button will be frozen out for good.

Of course there is a small chance that Vandoorne suddenly forgets how to drive now he finally has the full-time seat his talent warrants. But given McLaren has just signed Vandoorne to a new long-term contract - "so long it's rolled up" quipped Dennis at Monza - he's highly unlikely to be the one stepping aside for the man he's just replaced.

Button's best hope is that Alonso decides he's done with F1 after next season and walks away, perhaps to Le Mans or IndyCar. He considers the 24 Hours and the Indianapolis 500 the only events to be "equivalent prestige-wise" to being F1 world champion, and he also knows that F1 is not the be all and end all of life.

Dennis insists Button's new deal is not insurance against this scenario. But it does neatly work out that way. By retaining an option on Button for 2018, Dennis knows he has a proven world champion on the books and won't necessarily have to stake the farm on Vandoorne, should Alonso decide he's had enough of being its chief farmhand.

And that also means Button's destiny is yet again not entirely in his own hands. Should he want to come back he won't be entirely free to discuss terms with any other F1 teams. Should any of those teams decide they want Button, they are going to have to go through McLaren to get him.

Even so, the alternative options look severely limited for Button. Seats at Mercedes and Red Bull are sown up for 2018, so there's no obvious route back in via one of McLaren's main rivals - not forgetting the need to renegotiate that option.

Ferrari could have an opening, should it finally decide Raikkonen is past his sell-by date. What a wonderful story that would be. Button to Ferrari, following a trail last blazed by Nigel Mansell in 1989. 'Il leone MkII'?

Mansell was another to return to F1 after a season (and a bit) away. But having won the 1993 CART Indycar title, then the '94 F1 season finale at the end of an emergency cameo stint with the bereaved Williams team, his attempt at a full-time comeback with McLaren in '95 was not so successful...

But again the chances seem slim. If Ferrari wants a veteran, surely better the devil it knows? If it decides to freshen things up alongside Sebastian Vettel, surely it will ape the Red Bull model and try to promote a younger talent from within - perhaps one of the current Haas drivers, or maybe even Charles Leclerc, should the young Frenchman continue his meteoric rise by clinching the GP3 championship and then earning his F1 spurs (driving for Haas?) next season.

That would be a radical departure for Ferrari. But Red Bull is showing the world what's possible if you give certain teenagers the right chance.

But in any case, unless Vettel implodes with frustration, the Ferrari road looks blocked for Button as well.

Renault is the only other really serious player in town. That team has made no secret of its desire to secure a driver with charismatic leadership qualities as it attempts to rebuild itself into a winning force.

Renault is a long-term project and very much a team in flux, so could potentially have an opening. And Button is nothing if not charismatic. But Renault also looks very much like a team leaning towards building itself around younger drivers, who - according to managing director Cyril Abiteboul - are prepared to buy into that long-term vision. In some respects it has little choice in the matter, given its current lack of competitiveness.

It also seems more interested in quid pro quo at the moment - Sergio Perez with his Mexican backing, maybe Carlos Sainz Jr on some kind of special loan arrangement with Toro Rosso and Red Bull. Paying to buy Button out of McLaren doesn't really fit, so that also looks like a dead end, unless McLaren forgoes its option and allows Button to walk away for free.

Outside of the 'big five', Button would have to do what Raikkonen did in 2012 and come back via one of the less glamorous independent teams.

Williams was certainly interested in taking Button back to where it all began, but those talks never made it past the preliminary stages. Nevertheless, who knows what may be possible a year or two down the road?

Button's best bet for now is to use his time off to try his hand at other things. It worked out well for Raikkonen, who dabbled in the World Rally Championship and NASCAR before deciding he had unfinished business with F1.

Button could follow his late father's footsteps into rallycross, maybe try out Super GT or Super Formula with Honda, and spend more time competing in the triathlons he loves so much.

But if that F1 itch resurfaces in the meantime, he's not going to find a straightforward way to scratch it. Even if he decides he doesn't prefer life outside F1 after all, that world may well move on regardless, forcing Button to call time on a very successful and fulfilling career at the pinnacle of single-seater racing.

That sounds very much like retir... Sorry, I'm not allowed to use that word. Not yet anyway.