Why F1 could surprise in 2016

There is a glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, the Formula 1 season will offer more than Mercedes sailing off into the sunset with a further two world titles to its name.

Pre-season testing offered some very valuable insights but, as is always the case at this time of year, there were no absolute guarantees.

Reliability-wise, the fact that Mercedes managed to complete the equivalent of 18.6 grand prix distances before the W07 Hybrid finally suffered its first major issue with a transmission failure on the final afternoon was eye-opening.

How the cars compare for pace is always difficult to judge, but there is some suggestion Ferrari has again made strides, as it did last winter, and that the convergence in performance between the Mercedes and Ferrari engines is closer to coming to fruition.

We can only hope this is the case.

Even Williams - powered by Mercedes, let's not forget - offered glimpses that its chassis may be able to compete on occasion, most likely with Ferrari rather than the all-conquering Silver Arrows.

The overriding feeling is at no stage did Mercedes ever show its true hand, and only come the weekend of the Australian Grand Prix will it whip out the aces it had stashed up its sleeve and make everyone groan in abject despair.

But there are two wild cards on F1's table this season, and while they may not trump Mercedes, they will offer food for thought at times on whether it should stick or twist.

The first of these is the new tyre regulations - confusing in part, which has even been admitted to by some of the F1 teams' technical heads.

But tyre manufacturer Pirelli is enamoured by the potential scope for diversity and uncertainty in grands prix, particularly over the first half of the season.

The fact that there are now three compounds available per race, rather than the two of previous seasons - and all three could be chosen for a grand prix - will have the team strategists burning the midnight oil to formulate the right plan for their drivers.

There is even the possibility for the two drivers within each team to run different strategies based on their choice of rubber, and how they feel their car is handling throughout the course of free practice in the build-up to qualifying.

But the greater scope for unpredictability comes in the fact that for the first eight races, up to and including the new European Grand Prix in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku, the teams and drivers were effectively forced to commit to a strategy far in advance.

In the past, when only two compounds of tyre were available per race, Pirelli always knew how many sets of each rubber were required to get through any given weekend.

But in offering three sets, and given the length of time needed to manufacture, Pirelli now has to know far in advance the choices of the teams.

For the forthcoming long-hauls over the first part of the season in Australia, Bahrain, China, Russia, Canada and Azerbaijan, that has led to the requests being made 14 weeks in advance, while for Spain and Monaco it's eight weeks.

As Pirelli racing director Mario Isola said: "At the beginning of the championship I think there will be some variation because they had to choose the compounds quite far in advance for the first four races."

Isola recognises the simulation tools available to the teams at present mean they will likely have covered a number of bases, ensuring they will be confident of having predicted the best strategy.

Isola, however, feels there is plenty of scope for unpredictability, and is at least confident there will be a higher number of pitstops than has been the case over the past two years.

To aid the engine manufacturers' development of the systems, and in order to allow teams the chance to focus on engines rather than fret over tyres, Pirelli eased back slightly on its original mandate of ensuring a driver had to stop at least twice for new rubber.

The return to running at least two-stop plans this season should be in evidence, particularly if a team or a driver opts to go aggressive.

Heading into the second half of the campaign, the teams should have a handle on the tyres and what selections to make, so when it comes to offering the potential for season-long uncertainty, this year's clampdown on radio traffic is of greater interest.

The complexity of a modern F1 car, underlined by the plethora of switches and dials on a steering wheel, has resulted in drivers becoming "remote controlled" from the pitwall, according to Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff.

To that end, the FIA has opted to restrict radio traffic to ensure "the driver shall drive the car alone and unaided", with reference to article 20.1 of the sporting regulations.

Rather than stating the types of messages now banned, the FIA thought it easier to declare what can be aired from pit to car, drawing up a 32-point list of permitted transmissions.

For the first time in a while the onus will be on the driver, not just in terms of preparation ahead of a race, but more significantly through it, as he will have to think on his feet as that grand prix unfolds.

Strategy, tyre choice, pitstops, and engine-mode deployment will all now be in the driver's hands, so gone is the kind of message aired in the past such as "Strat mode four, Lewis".

A driver will now have to decide when to attack, when to defend, when more fuel is required, and when to fuel save.

Think of the calls we've had from Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg in the past, asking to be placed on a different strategy from their team-mate in an attempt to find a way past and win the race.

Wolff has remarked that being unable to see the bigger picture, as is evident from the pitwall, would put them at a disadvantage, but who is to say doing something different would not end up with the right result on occasion.

At least we might be spared the formulaic one-two, with both drivers running the same strategy due to the team being afraid of favouring one over the other.

As Wolff states, intelligence will be required from his drivers, both in terms of the pre-race planning and in knowing how to read a race.

"Things will be less optimised by algorithms and engineers, and it will give room for error," he says.

Rosberg is relishing the opportunity of using his nous during a race: "It's challenging, but I like it because it's more down to yourself out there.

"More and more you need to figure your own way, out on the track, but it's good. It's more pure, which is good for the racing."

This is an opportunity for a degree of genuine racing to unfold, for drivers to show what they can do without being dictated to from the pitwall.

And if it does end up being another Mercedes stroll, at least we may have some fun along the way.