Do debut points mean big prizes?

Getting on the scoreboard is the first significant landmark in any Formula 1 driver's career. After, of course, getting into a race seat in the first place.

A total of 653 drivers have started world championship grands prix (this excludes those competing in the points-paying Indianapolis 500s of 1950-60) but only 294 of them have scored points. Of those, 61 have scored on their first start.

Felipe Nasr and Carlos Sainz, respectively fifth and ninth in the Australian Grand Prix, are the latest members of the 10 per cent club.

Eddie Irvine famously earned points and a punch from Ayrton Senna on debut © LAT

There was a time when making it into this select club was very rare indeed. From 1980 to 2000, only Jean Alesi, Alain Prost, Johnny Herbert, Jacques Villeneuve, Eddie Irvine and Pedro de la Rosa managed it.

It's a strong group, containing two world champions and sharing a combined total of 70 victories. All six had long careers, and only de la Rosa's cannot be said to be hugely successful.

And even he has hardly been a failure, given his many years of service as a prized test driver for McLaren and Ferrari among some strong race performances in mostly mediocre equipment.

From 2001 to date, even with six fewer seasons, there have been 13 instances of debut scorers.

There are reasons for this increased frequency. Particularly during the past decade, reliability rates in F1 have improved dramatically.

This led to points being extended to all of the top 10 in 2010, and while generally the chances of scoring in any given race is not out of whack with the rest of world championship history now, given unreliability is disproportionately common in the first race, there have been some very cheap points on offer.

In a Minardi, Mark Webber was the last debutant points scorer of the 'top six' era, in Australia in 2002 © LAT

After all, Sebastien Bourdais was classified seventh in the 2008 Australian GP despite not even reaching the chequered flag.

Sunday's race was, frankly, not a difficult one to score in. Provided you weren't lumbered with a recalcitrant, detuned McLaren-Honda, as poor Jenson Button was on his way to 11th and last, if you took the chequered flag you were guaranteed points.

So you could simply say that Nasr and Sainz just needed to trundle around to join the club of points-scoring debutants.

That is true, but Nasr's fifth place was founded on an excellent drive, holding off Daniel Ricciardo's quicker (in laptime, but not straightline speed) Red Bull for much of the race. Far from a cheap result.

As for Sainz, he finished his first lap in grand prix racing in fifth place, only getting shuffled back at the restart for not being in the right engine mode at the green flag (Toro Rosso accepted responsibility) and then losing over half-a-minute with a disastrous pitstop.

He only beat Button and 10th-placed Sergio Perez, which given the Force India driver had a horribly messy race was no great achievement in itself. But Sainz had plenty of problems to contend with and, while attrition helped him, it really only offset his bad luck rather than giving him a net advantage.

Their place in this select club of debut scorers guaranteed, and merited, let's take a closer look at the membership.

DRIVERS SCORING POINTS IN FIRST WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP RACE*

Jean Alesi, 4th 1989 French GP
Peter Arundell, 3rd 1964 Monaco GP
Alberto Ascari, 2nd 1950 Monaco GP
Giancarlo Baghetti, 1st 1961 French GP
Jean Behra, 3rd 1952 Swiss GP
Lucian Bianchi, 6th 1960 Belgian GP
Felice Bonetto, 5th 1950 Swiss GP
Sebastien Bourdais, 7th 2008 Australian GP
Alan Brown, 5th 1952 Swiss GP
Sebastien Buemi, 7th 2009 Australian GP
Pedro de la Rosa, 6th 1999 Australian GP
Paul di Resta, 10th 2011 Australian GP
Mark Donohue, 3rd 1971 Canadian GP
Vic Elford, 4th 1968 French GP
Luigi Fagioli, 2nd 1950 British GP
Giuseppe Farina, 1st 1950 British GP
George Follmer, 6th 1973 South African GP
Paul Frere, 5th 1952 Belgian GP
Oscar Galvez, 5th 1953 Argentinian GP
Olivier Gendebien, 5th 1956 Argentinian GP
Gerino Gerini, 4th 1956 Argentinian GP
Richie Ginther, 6th 1960 Monaco GP
Yves Giraud-Cabantous, 4th 1950 British GP
Ignazio Giunti, 4th 1970 Belgian GP
Timo Glock, 7th 2004 Canadian GP
Masten Gregory, 3rd 1957 Monaco GP
Lewis Hamilton, 3rd 2007 Australian GP
Mike Hawthorn, 4th 1952 Belgian GP
Johnny Herbert, 4th 1989 Brazilian GP
Jacky Ickx, 6th 1967 Italian GP
Innes Ireland, 4th 1959 Dutch GP
Eddie Irvine, 6th 1993 Japanese GP
Karl Kling, 2nd 1954 French GP
Daniil Kvyat, 9th 2014 Australian GP
Hermann Lang, 5th 1953 Swiss GP
Neville Lederle, 6th 1962 South African GP
Stuart Lewis-Evans, 4th 1957 Monaco GP
Vitantonio Liuzzi, 8th 2005 San Marino GP
Kevin Magnussen, 2nd 2014 Australian GP
Arturo Merzario, 6th 1972 BritishGP
Felipe Nasr, 5th 2015 Australian GP
Mike Parkes, 2nd 1966 French GP
Reg Parnell, 3rd 1950 British GP
Dennis Poore, 4th 1952 British GP
Alain Prost, 6th 1980 Argentinian GP
Kimi Raikkonen, 6th 2001 Australian GP
Clay Regazzoni, 4th 1970 Dutch GP
Nico Rosberg, 7th 2006 Bahrain GP
Louis Rosier, 5th 1950 British GP
Carlos Sainz Jr, 9th 2015 Australian GP
Ludovico Scarfiotti, 6th 1963 Dutch GP
Dorinio Serafini, 2nd 1950 Italian GP
Raymond Sommer, 4th 1950 Monaco GP
Jackie Stewart, 6th 1965 South African GP
Eric Thompson, 5th 1952 British GP
Sebastian Vettel, 8th 2007 United States GP
Jacques Villeneuve, 2nd 1996 Australian GP
Mark Webber, 5th 2002 Australian GP
Ken Wharton, 4th 1952 Swiss GP
Reine Wisell, 3rd 1970 United States GP
*Excludes the points paying Indianapolis 500s of 1950-1960

Of the 32 drivers to have won the world championship, a surprisingly small number have managed to score on debut. Just nine, in fact.

Niki Lauda retired from his first Grand Prix, in Austria in 1971, and didn't score points until his 18th, almost two years later © LAT

Giuseppe Farina, winner of the inaugural world championship race at Silverstone in 1950 and the first to take the grand prize, is a given. But among the other seven there's no Ayrton Senna, no Michael Schumacher, no Jim Clark, no Niki Lauda, no Juan Manuel Fangio. And those are just five of the absent names.

Nine doesn't sound like much, but it still represents 15 per cent of the drivers who are in the debut points club.

Now let's look at world championship race winners: there are 19 of them in the list, in bold. That represents 31 per cent of the debut points club.

Given that 653 drivers have started world championship grands prix, just five per cent of them have won titles, while 14.5 per cent have won races.

So taking the group of those scoring points on debut versus the overall pool of starters, they are three times more likely to become title winners, and around twice as likely to win races.

But the absence of some big names shows that it's nothing more than a gentle indicator of promise, especially as this methodology for evaluating future prospects is very limited.

Michael Schumacher didn't need points to attract attention on debut © LAT

But that's an illustration of the hit-and-miss nature of this accolade as an indicator of success. Let's take Schumacher as an example. His debut is one of the most famous in the history of grand prix racing, qualifying his Jordan a sensational seventh at Spa.

His race lasted a matter of seconds, but his mark has been made. Given that team-mate Andrea de Cesaris was in a potential position to win the race - he was behind Senna who was ailing with a gearbox problem when he stopped late on - Schumacher's debut could have been even more sensational.

As it happened, de Cesaris's retirement was the result of an engine problem down to Cosworth making a tweak to the engine that increased the oil demand, and not telling the team to put more in, so there's every chance Schumacher would have suffered the same fate!

Then there are the cases on the list who went on to achieve little in grand prix racing. Some, like Eric Thompson, never started another world championship race. Others, like Giancarlo Baghetti who won the French GP on his first start in a points-paying race (off the back of consecutive wins in two non-championship races) and then did little more.

But as an overall group, it's a strong one. So what does all this tell us about Nasr and Sainz? Well, statistically speaking, based purely on the precedent of those who have scored on their first start since 1950, they are more likely to be successful.

What it does not do is guarantee success. While both Nasr and Sainz have made great starts, they need to deliver on more than one weekend to establish themselves properly. And both have the ability and equipment to do.

It also does not mean that the driver who missed out, Max Verstappen, is doomed to failure.

Maybe he can score on his second start? After all, that worked out pretty well for Senna.